Michigan basketball fans could have only dreamed before the season that the Wolverines would be taking part in a top-20 matchup against Michigan State with first place on the line in the Big Ten.
The Spartans are 12-3. Michigan basketball is 12-2. The winner of Friday's game will take over first place in the Big Ten and if the Wolverines win, they will have a 1.5-game lead with five games to go.
Michigan basketball would need just three more wins to clinch at least a share of the Big Ten title. Dusty May has already beaten one rival of the Wolverines on the basketball court. Now, his first matchup against Tom Izzo will have title implications.
Here are three bold predictions for Michigan basketball vs. Michigan State.
Danny Wolf has a double-double
Danny Wolf is one of the most unique players in college basketball. He's a 7-footer who has the skills of a guard. He's shooting 36 percent from 3-point range and averages 3.6 assists and 1.5 blocks per game in addition to averaging a double-double (12.9 ppg, 10 rpg).
Michigan State has one of the best defenses in the Big Ten. Michigan State has the third-best 2-point defense in the Big Ten, but not many teams offer the same challenges Michigan does.
Vlad Goldin requires enough attention. He can dominate a game in the paint all by himself. Izzo always used to single Hunter Dickinson and we'll see if he takes the same approach. Regardless, the Spartans will have to figure out how to stop the Goldin-Wolf pick-and-roll.
I'm not sure the Spartans can do it. I also don't think they will be able to contain Wolf who will register a double-double, impacting the game as a scorer, playmaker, and rebounder.
Michigan has the edge from 3-point range
The Spartans are 16th in the Big Ten in 3-point percentage (32 percent). They also shoot fewer 3-point attempts during Big Ten games than any other team.
Michigan State does lead the league in assists and has three talented guards in Jaden Akins, Jase Richardson, and Tre Holloman. All three average at least one 3-pointer per game and if the Spartans are going to win, it feels like they will have to shoot the ball well from deep.
Michigan State has made just seven 3-pointers over the past two games. They shot 17 percent against Indiana. On the same token, Michigan basketball shoots 34 percent from deep. MSU also allows just 28 percent from beyond the arc.
The Spartans also allow the third-most attempts from beyond the arc in the Big Ten, so Michigan basketball will get chances and the Wolverines will make enough to have a comfortable 3-point margin in the final box score.
2-point battle will determine the game
Michigan's formula for winning this season has consisted of winning the 2-point battle more often than not.
That's going to be a huge key for Michigan basketball again on Friday night. The Spartans have the third-best 2-point percentage defense (48.7), just ahead of Michigan which is fourth (48.9). The Wolverines have the third-best 2-point offense in the league (56.2 percent); Michigan State 7th (54.2 percent).
Rebonds will be critical. Transition defense will be another focal point for Michigan. That's where the Spartans could make hay from 3-point range. But this game will be decided on the 2-point battle. The Wolverines have used their combination of Vlad Goldin and Wolf to overwhelm teams and they did it against Ohio State in the second half.
May likes to save some of those ball screens for the second half when it will be more difficult for opposing teams to adjust. I'd give Michigan the edge and believe they will come out shooting a better pecentange than MSU on 2-point shots, but if they don't, it's hard to see Michigan winning.
Prediction: Michigan 77, Michigan State 74
This will be another classic similar to the Purdue game. The Wolverines will probably have more turnovers than fans would like, but their 3-point shooting and the inside play of Area 51 will be the difference in Ann Arbor.