3 keys and a prediction for Michigan basketball vs. Oregon

Michigan basketball is back on the court after a week off and the Wolverines will travel to Oregon. Here are three keys and a prediction. 

Plenty of Wolverines fans are going to be focused on the Big Ten Championship game in Indianapolis on Saturday night, but there’s a perfect afternoon appetizer as Michigan basketball travels to Oregon for a key non-conference matchup.

Following a strong start to the season, Michigan basketball has lost three of its last four games. The loss to Long Beach State exposed a defense that needs to improve but struggled in losses to Memphis and Texas Tech in the Bahamas.

Oregon is ranked 50th according to the Kenpom rankings, while Michigan is 54th. Both teams have had some ups and downs, but Michigan could really use a win. Here are three keys, as well as a prediction for the Wolverines vs. Oregon.

Score the ball inside

Just looking at the numbers, one advantage for Michigan basketball should be its ability to score inside. The Wolverines rank 27th in college hoops in 2-point percentage. Oregon ranks 203rd in 2-point defense, Nathan Bittle is the only 7-footer on the roster for the Ducks and he has averaged 20 minutes in three games this season.

Bittle is averaging 1.7 blocks per game, so he’s a legit rim protector. Oregon also has N’Faly Dante but both players are expected to miss the game, which should give the Wolverines a huge advantage inside with Tarris Reed and Olivier Nkamhoua.

Dug needs to have a day

Dug McDaniel has scored 20 points or more in four different games this season and with the Ducks middling ball-screen defense, he should have a field day on Saturday.

That doesn’t mean that he has to score 20 points to beat Oregon, but Dug needs to control the game which means making plays for others, protecting the ball, and scoring too.

Dug seems unstoppable when his jumper is working. He’s done a much better job of shooting 3-pointers this season instead of long 2-point attempts, but with Oregon’s stellar guard play, which is the strength of the team right now, I don’t see Michigan winning without a big game from Dug.

The defense needs to have a pulse

Even without Bittle and Dante, the Ducks have three double-digit scorers and average 83 points per game. Those two bigs have played just a combined four games this season, so Oregon can score without them and ranks 83rd in college hoops in 3-point percentage.

Jermaine Couisnard and Keeshawn Barthelemy are two senior guards who are going to be vital for the Ducks on Saturday. They combine to average 24 points per game, more than five assists, and three 3-point makes per game between them.

It will be up to Dug McDaniel and Nimari Burnett to check them, but the team defense simply needs to be better. The rotations need to be better, the shot contests need to be better, and the rebounding needs to be better.

Juwan is going to serve as an assistant as he transitions back to being a full-time coach, but whatever it takes, this team, which should be solid defensively, has to figure it out, starting on Saturday against the Ducks.

Prediction

Without Oregon having its best bigs, this is a very winnable game for Michigan, which needs to get off the mat. I say the Wolverines do just that with a 79-74 win.