3 Keys and a prediction for Michigan basketball vs Toldeo in the NIT

Be competitive at the 3-point line

Toldeo has four players that average double figures in scoring and all of them are stellar 3-point shooters. Rayj Dennis is a guard that averages 19.8 points per game and 5.7 assists.

Dante Maddox is the only guard while forwards Setric Millner and JT Shumate are 6-foot-6 and 6-foot-7 and both shoot better than 40 percent from beyond the arc. So the Michigan basketball defense is going to be tested.

Toldeo is third in the country in overall field goal percentage and 23rd in 2-point percentage. However, Toldeo also ranks 303rd in defensive field-goal percentage, 285th in defensive 2-point field-goal percentage, and 295th in defensive 3-point percentage.

So as well as the Rockets shoot it, teams tend to be pretty successful in their own right at scoring the ball against Toledo and for all its struggles, Michigan basketball has one of the best offensive teams in the Big Ten.

The Wolverines are also a better defensive team. They can certainly defend the rim better than Toldeo and that should be the difference, as long as Michigan doesn’t get outscored by a bunch of points at the 3-point line. That’s one way Toldeo could pull off this upset.

Michigan basketball vs Toldeo prediction

Michigan is listed as a six-point favorite right now according to DraftKings. The over/under is 162 and that’s not a surprise given the offensive capabilities of both teams.

Toldeo is going to push the tempo and they are going to make some shots. People expecting this to be an easy game — shouldn’t. Toldeo won 28 games for a reason. They also don’t have any way of stopping Dickinson.

I also see them struggling to contain McDaniel in the ball-screen game, as well as Bufkin and Howard. Jett and Kobe were terrible in the Big Ten tournament game loss to Rutgers and it would be great to see those guys respond.

I’m hoping to see great energy from the Wolverines tonight and as long as this team is engaged (a big if at times), Michigan will win the game and cover the spread, 88-79.