Michigan basketball’s improbable path to March Madness

Two devastating OT losses to finish the regular season have put the Michigan Basketball Team in a very tough position to be selected for March Madness.

Michigan basketball had a great February, going 6-2 overall, which has given us all false hope in how good the Wolverines actually are.

Starting the season off terribly, the Wolverines put themselves in a bad position where they had to go on a major streak to even get talked about in March.

Of course, Michigan wins a couple of games and finds itself in 2nd place in the Big Ten. They needed to win just one game in their final two games to get a sure ticket to March Madness. Unfortunately, they had to travel to both Illinois and Indiana, which is anything but an easy win.

The Wolverines looked excellent for 36 minutes in both games. They found themselves up by double digits on the road in games they were projected to lose by 5 or more points, and then the final four minutes came.

Michigan’s Late Game Collapses

This has been the biggest story for the Wolverines, not just this season, but for Juwan’s coaching career at Michigan. Their inability to finish games may be the worst in the country, and unfortunately for Juwan, that is a direct correlation to poor coaching decisions.

Before we get into the trainwreck of the last two games of Michigan’s season, let’s talk about one of the biggest collapses in Juwan’s career that happened in the Big Ten Tournament last season against none other than the Indiana Hoosiers.

Similar to this season, the 21-22 Wolverines were outside looking in when referring to March Madness. They finished their regular season strong, but it still looked like a couple of wins in the Big Ten Tournament would give them the wins they needed to go dancing.

Michigan drew the 8 seed and IU had the 9 seed. They played each other in the second round of the tournament after both receiving first-round byes. Michigan basketball absolutely dominated this game for the first 28 minutes.

U-M got off to a 41-28 point lead at halftime and increased the lead to 17 points with 14 minutes left in the second half. Sound familiar at all?

The Wolverines then went scoreless from the field for the next 13 minutes of the game before ultimately blowing the lead to lose the game 74-69. During that scoreless stretch, the Hoosiers went on a 17-1 run without a timeout being called by Michigan.

During the second half of that game, Michigan basketball had a 98% win probability according to ESPN’s live game statistics. This is not the first time we’ve seen Michigan blow a game with a high win probability late in the contest.

Scott Bell, a Michigan writer that has gained a large following on Twitter, brought up this interesting graphic that used ESPN’s live statistics on Michigan’s collapses this season:

Two of the top four collapses on that list occurred during the final two games of the season. Michigan’s 2OT loss to Illinois had Michigan’s highest win percentage at 89.9%, and then during the OT loss to IU, Michigan had an 87% chance to win that game late in the 2nd.

So, What is the Problem? Why can’t Michigan basketball Finish Games?

Michigan is still a very young team. Despite Hunter Dickinson, there are not a whole lot of experienced players that play meaningful minutes. So, with this lack of experience, you have to rely on coaching.

Unfortunately, when Michigan basketball turns to Juwan Howard during these times of crisis, they are met with a blank face. It is evident not just from this year, but in the last couple of seasons, that Juwan is completely clueless during crunch-time situations.

Tom Izzo is a great example of a coach who draws up plays that work during the end of games. The amount of times Michigan State has a free basket from a perfectly drawn-up inbounds play is too many to count. The scariest thing to see as an opponent of Michigan State is the Spartans inbounding the ball with 10 seconds left. Good luck defending that.

Juwan Howard and the Wolverines are completely opposite. Even in the Wisconsin game earlier this season when Dickinson hit the game-tying three, the inbounds play went horribly wrong. It was pure luck, and if you rely only on luck, then you’re bound to have it run out sooner or later.

Another big factor for the Wolverines losing games late is their lack of time management. Once again this is on the coaching staff. When you’re up by 10 points with 5 minutes left, your pace of play has to change. The Wolverines seemed unaware of how to operate with the lead.

Basketball is also a game of runs, and the most important tool a coach has to shut down a run is a timeout. A timeout changes the pace of play, allows time for the shooter to cool down, and most importantly allows you to give your players words of wisdom. It is unsure if Howard knows what a timeout is.

Does Michigan Still Have a Chance?

The greatest thing about college basketball, which should be adapted to all collegiate sports, is if you win your conference tournament, you get an automatic bid to the Big Dance. So, by definition, Michigan still has a chance; win the Big Ten Tournament and they’re in.

It is probably not realistic, however, because Michigan’s last two losses pushed them from 2nd in the Big Ten to 8th. They now face off against Rutgers who is pretty upset from their loss to Michigan at home a week ago.

If Michigan somehow beats an angry Rutgers team, then they face off against the big bad Boilermakers, the #1 overall seed in the Big Ten. They would need to win that game to just make it to the semifinals, where an instate rivalry against Michigan State could ensue. A win there, and then they are in the championship game where their odds are much better than the previous games.

It is an unlikely path, but it is possible. Michigan basketball has shown that it can compete with anyone, and maybe Juwan Howard will experience a coaching epiphany and win a meaningful game when they have the lead.