3 keys and a prediction for Michigan Basketball vs Illinois

Defense and rebounding

It has taken some time, but Michigan is starting to play defense like Michigan. The Wolverines rank in the top 3 in field goal percentage defense, 2-point defense, and 3-point defense in the Big Ten.

Elite 2-point defense was the key to Michigan’s stellar defense in 2021 and they have improved a lot in that area over the past month. Illinois leads the Big Ten in 2-point field goal shooting percentage but is last in the Big Ten in 3-point percentage.

That doesn’t stop Illinois from shooting the fourth-most 3-pointers in the league. Matthew Mayers makes 2.1 treys per game. Terrance Shannon is right there at 1.7, however, nobody shoots better than 36 percent from deep.

Illinois is also third in the Big Ten in offensive rebounding, so for Michigan, it’s about winning the 2-point battle on defense and forcing more perimeter shots, plus keeping Illinois off the glass, which the Wolverines should be able to do as the No. 1 defensive rebounding team in the Big Ten.

Michigan basketball vs Illinois prediction

Illinois has had Michigan’s number during the Juwan era, but at some point, that’s going to end and tonight feels like a good night. The Illini aren’t playing their best basketball right now and there’s no clear solution for stopping Hunter Dickinson.

This game will come down to how well Dickinson plays, as well as the effort put out by Bufkin and McDaniel. Dug has scored an average of 18 points per game in the last three wins for Wolverines with an average of just one turnover.

Teams are forcing Bufkin and McDaniel to score and it’s worked. If they keep it up, Michigan is going to win and despite the Wolveines being a four-point underdog (according to Draft Kings) I’m taking the Wolverines to win outright, 72-66.