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3 keys and a prediction for Michigan Basketball against Northwestern

By Chris Peterson

Jan 15, 2023; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines guard Kobe Bufkin (2) dribbles in the first half against the Northwestern Wildcats at Crisler Center. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 15, 2023; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines guard Kobe Bufkin (2) dribbles in the first half against the Northwestern Wildcats at Crisler Center. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports /
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Michigan coach Juwan Howard draws a play for guards Dug McDaniel (0) and Kobe Bufkin during MSU’s 59-53 win over U-M on Saturday, Jan. 7, 2023, at Breslin Center.
Michigan coach Juwan Howard draws a play for guards Dug McDaniel (0) and Kobe Bufkin during MSU’s 59-53 win over U-M on Saturday, Jan. 7, 2023, at Breslin Center. /

Don’t beat yourself

In the first matchup, Michigan turned the ball over 18 times but found a way to win. On the road, it’s hard to see that happening especially as Northwestern was plus-10 in turnover margin.

That can’t happen on Thursday night. Michigan’s 3-point defense is another key. Michigan was sound in closing out on shooters. You can’t lose people against this Northwestern team. The Wildcats are fifth in the Big Ten in 3-point attempts but made just six in the first matchup.

Boo Buie, Chase Audige, Ty Berry, and Robbie Beran all average at least 1.2 3-point field goals per game, and the first three guys all average at least 1.7. Michigan won the 3-point battle by 12 points in the first meeting and that’s not likely to happen either.

My guess is that it’s closer to even. That’s where Michigan needs it at least. If U-M can be even there, win on the boards, and cut down on turnovers, it can win this game.

The problem is all of those things are easier said than done and outside of Minnesota, Michigan basketball hasn’t won a true road game this season.

Fouls will be another key metric as Northwestern leads the Big Ten in free throws attempted and made. It’s an interesting stat for a perimeter-oriented offense but another way the Wolverines can beat themselves.

Talent-wise, Northwestern has one top-100 recruit, while Michigan has four former top-100 recruits in its starting lineup but the little things matter and Michigan basketball has struggled to do all the little things right all season long.

Michigan basketball vs Northwestern prediction

Call me crazy, but I still think Michigan matches up pretty well with Northwestern. The Wolverines are the more talented team and I really can’t see Dickinson stinking it up again.

Three straight home games loom after this against Ohio State, Nebraska, and Indiana. If the Wolverines win tonight, they could win four in a row and that would move them to 9-5 in the Big Ten and 15-10 overall.

That’s a team that’s at least on the bubble. Right now, the Wolverines have to play themselves onto the bubble and it starts on Thursday.

Next. The all-time Michigan basketball team. dark

I believe we’ll see an inspired effort and the talent of Howard, Bufkin, and Dickinson will be just enough to escape with a 66-62 win.

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