Michigan Football: Preview and Prediction vs TCU
TCU offense vs Michigan defense
TCU has a very versatile offense. Quarterback Max Duggan was the Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year and the runner-up in the Heisman race. He’s thrown for 30 touchdowns and ran for 6 more.
Running back Kendre Miller has also had a great season, with 1,343 rushing yards at 6.2 per carry and 17 touchdowns. Granted, that’s against Big 12 defenses, but nonetheless, he is very impressive.
The third star of this offense is wide receiver Quentin Johnston. The 6’4, 215 lb potential top 10 draft pick has 53 catches for 903 yards and 5 touchdowns. What’s most eye-opening is that all five of his touchdown catches have been for 20+ yards. Michigan will have to prevent this.
Their offensive line is solid, but not great. Left guard Steve Avila is an All-American, but that’s where the accolades end. This is not the best offensive line Michigan has matched up against by any means. Illinois and Ohio State both appear to be much better, and Iowa and Penn State appear to be about equal, if not a bit better.
I expect that Michigan football will win the line of scrimmage, but that isn’t exactly TCU’s goal on offense, as they aren’t a very methodical team.
TCU is a big-play offense. That’s it. The Horned Frogs love to throw deep jump balls, and they’re very good at it. Opponents have about a 34% completion percentage on balls thrown 20+ yards down the field against Michigan. That is not a great number. While the emergence of cornerback Will Johnson will surely help, DJ Turner and co must do a better job of preventing the 50-50 balls from going in TCU’s favor.
The Michigan defensive line has done a great job of stopping the run this year, allowing Michigan to keep two deep safeties, thus helping to prevent the big plays. It’s crucial that the Wolverines are able to at least somewhat replicate that. They’re definitely the better unit compared to the TCU offensive line, but asking them to shut down a good run game is a tough ask.
Adding onto the TCU run game, the scariest part of TCU’s offense is Max Duggan’s ability to run. Whenever they’re in a crunch, he puts the game into his own hands and takes off with the ball. He’s a physical runner who isn’t scared to take a hit or give one. Just look at TCU’s last couple of drives in regulation in the Big 12 Championship. Duggan consistently puts the team on his back when needed, and does it very successfully.
Michigan football has historically struggled against mobile quarterbacks. While Taulia Tagovailoa is likely the most mobile QB the Wolverines have seen all year, Adrian Martinez gave the Wolverines fits last year. I’m very hopeful that with a month to prepare, Jesse Minter will have something ready to account for Duggan’s running, but his legs could be the X-factor in the game.
I think that TCU is going to find some success on offense. I don’t think they’re going to be completely shut out. The key for TCU is getting points on the board in the first half. They’ve been in an absurd amount of one-possession games, and that’s because they’ve struggled in the first half.
To me, the only way that TCU wins this game is if it’s a shootout and their defense forces a couple of turnovers. The Wolverines will be doing everything in their power to shut the TCU offense down early.