Michigan Football vs Illinois: Odds and a prediction for College Football Week 12

Michigan football will host Illinois in the final home game of the season on Saturday and here is a look at the odds, as well as our prediction. 

In a matchup that looked like a ranked showdown a couple of weeks ago, Michigan football will host Illinois in a game that will feature just one ranked team — the Wolverines.

Illinois fell out of the AP Top 25 earlier this week after losing consecutive games to Michigan State and Purdue. Illinois had complete control of the Big Ten West and now the division is mired in a four-way tie where no team controls its destiny.

When Illinois was ranked in the top 20, it seemed like Michigan football might have to play Illinois twice in three weeks. However, if the Wolverines win on Saturday, that will probably end any hope the Fighting Illini have of winning the West.

Built much like the Wolverines, Illinois has a strong defense. The Illini are second in the Big Ten in total defense, rushing defense, pass defense, and also scoring defense.

Illinois also has one of the Big Ten’s best running backs in Chase Brown. He’s one of the few backs nationally that deserves to get mentioned in the same breath as Blake Corum, but he was injured against Purdue and might not be 100 percent.

On the Michigan side of things, Jim Harbaugh said Monday that Donovan Edwards would play this Saturday, as would Luke Schoonmaker. That’s good news for the Wolverines and it sounds like Mike Morris isn’t seriously injured either, although it’s not clear if he will play on Saturday.

Michigan has been cautious with injuries and with the Ohio State game next week, it makes sense. Yet, there is still one more important game to go, and here’s a look at the odds, as well as our prediction for the Wolverines and Fighting Illini.

Michigan Football vs Illinois odds for Week 12 of College Football

According to Fanduel, the Wolverines are a 17.5-point favorite in this matchup and that’s not all that surprising given the results the last two weeks. The over/under is 42.5. The money line for Michigan football is -1100 compared to +680 for Illinois.

(Odds are subject to change)

Michigan football vs Illinois prediction against the spread

This will be an interesting matchup for Michigan but when it has faced other stellar run defenses such as Iowa and Penn State, it hasn’t been a huge issue. Nebraska’s Anthony Grant also averaged five yards per attempt against Illinois, so the run defense has been a little leaky for the Illini.

The fact that Chase Brown might not be 100 percent is a big red flag for Illinois, which should be the biggest challenge yet for Michigan’s run defense. I expect him to play and I wouldn’t be surprised if he got close to 100 yards — he’s that good.

But Michigan football has been dominant at home the past two seasons (undefeated) and I don’t see the seniors losing their last home game, especially since the Wolverines have an outside shot of making the playoff at 11-1.

The players obviously are focused on winning the Big Ten but I don’t think this team will be looking ahead to Ohio State and I’m going to say Michigan football wins and covers the spread.