Michigan Football right where it should be in CFP Rankings

Michigan football is ranked third in the College Football Playoff rankings and that’s a good spot to be in going down the stretch. 

It was hard to agree with the selection committee of the College Football Playoff after Michigan football was ranked fifth last week.

But Clemson was dominated by Notre Dame and Tennessee also lost to Georgia which was a good thing for the Wolverines too. This week, Michigan moved up to third.

That’s a good thing but honestly, Michigan football’s situation isn’t really that much different than it was a week ago. The Wolverines could still have a chance to make the playoff if they wind up as an 11-1 team following a loss to Ohio State but I don’t see it being likely.

Michigan football making the playoff at 11-1 isn’t likely

For starters, TCU needs to lose. That’s paramount. The Horned Frogs might even need to lose twice. I don’t really see Michigan football making it over an 11-1 Tennessee team with a win over Alabama and also LSU.

The Vols’ wins over Pittsburgh and Florida don’t look great and they don’t have any great wins left on the schedule but neither does Michigan.

The win over Penn State looks good right now and so does the fact that Michigan football has only allowed three second-half points in the last four games.

But let’s just put out one scenario: Say Georgia wins out, Ohio State wins, and TCU wins out. Oregon or the Pac-12 champion would get the other berth. Even a 12-1 TCU as a Big-12 champion is probably going to end up ranked ahead of Michigan.

Michigan losing a close game against Ohio State could matter. But Illinois really needed to win all of its other games. That could have at least given the Wolverines two wins over 10-win teams in the event if loses “The Game.”

Unlike Georgia, Michigan doesn’t have a win over Oregon in non-conference or something like it. It also isn’t likely to have multiple wins over top-10 teams like Tennessee could have as an 11-1 team with its victories over LSU and Alabama assuming Alabama wins out but misses the SEC title game.

There are a bunch of different scenarios in play. But people acting like Michigan football has a good chance at 11-1 just aren’t paying attention.

Michigan football needs absolute chaos for that to happen and even then, I just don’t see Michigan besting any 12-1 conference champion and yes that includes Clemson and TCU.

It’s easy to say the Wolverines would rank ahead of them now. But it’s another thing entirely when those teams have conference titles and 12 wins. Now if they wind up at 11-2 and win the ACC/Big 12 — that’s another story.

Michigan football has the eye test going for it. Outside of that and a really good win over Penn State, it won’t have much else outside of a close loss to Ohio State.

Of course, if Michigan beats Ohio State and wins the Big Ten title, it could go 1-1 against Nebraska and Illinois and it likely wouldn’t matter.

As long as Michigan has one loss and wins the Big Ten, it’s headed back to the playoff. That’s why all the discussion of the rankings is moot. Win in Columbus and Indy and you are in.

That’s the only scenario that matters.