Michigan football: have the Wolverines achieved elite status?

For years under Jim Harbaugh, Michigan football was always in the “good” to “great” range. In six (full) seasons as head coach, Harbaugh brought Michigan to three 10 plus win seasons, three New Year’s Six bowls, the College Football Playoff, two division titles, one Big Ten title, and five ranked finishes. After knocking on the door for so long, has Michigan achieved elite status?

Knocking on the door

Starting in 2015, Michigan football seemed to be back to its winning ways. Yes, the Wolverines lost to Michigan State and Ohio State, but a huge bowl win over Florida got Michigan football back to 10-win seasons and competing for New Year’s Six Bowls. After four years of Jim Harbaugh, Michigan had won 10 games three times and nearly made it to the playoff and Big Ten title game twice, yet could never pull it off.

In 2019 and 2020 it seemed as if Michigan football was going the wrong way (9-4 in 2019, 2-4 during the Covid year), yet rallied in 2021 and made more progress than ever before.

The narrative changes

In 2021 the Wolverines started the year unranked, and rightfully so. Michigan looked terrible in 2020, and there were too many questions surrounding the team heading into the year. In fact, a 9-3 season would have been a success for most fans in 2021, and national media had the Wolverines finishing 7-5 or 8-4 for the most part. These predictions were obviously proven wrong.

Michigan went 11-1 last year including a huge win over Ohio State. The Wolverines proceeded to dismantle Iowa (10-2) in the Big Ten title game, 42-3 and secured itself a playoff spot. Georgia — the eventual national champs — gave Michigan a reality check that ended in a 34-11 loss for Michigan, but overall it seemed as if Michigan had broken through its glass ceiling.

Where does that leave Michigan now?

Unlike the start of last year, Michigan has huge aspirations as a program right now. The Wolverines have the talent and staff to win 11 or more games on a regular basis, and so far are proving it on the field. To be honest, the Wolverines looked underwhelming at times this year, especially during Big Ten play. Michigan stumbled past Maryland, 34-27, and did not have convincing wins over Iowa (27-14) or Indiana (31-10) these past few weeks.

Penn State was in the opposite boat coming into last weekend. The Nittany Lions had low expectations for this season, yet climbed to a 5-0 record including a gutsy win over Purdue and a blowout win at Auburn. Most everyone picked Michigan football to win the game, but it seemed as if Penn State should be a good test for an unproven Michigan team.

Long story short, the Wolverines asserted themselves firmly into the playoff conversation, taking down the No. 10 Nittany Lions in a convincing fashion. Michigan came away with a 41-17 victory, but even the score does not show how dominant Michigan was. The Nittany Lions’ offense only mustered 10 points of its own (the defense scored 7 of its 17) and Michigan ran for over 400 yards on Penn State’s great defense.

Personally, I saw Michigan winning, but I don’t think anyone saw a beating of that caliber in the cards. It is a loss that could set Penn State back as a program, and one that could propel Michigan.

What does this all mean for 2022?

Michigan football dropped to No. 5 after its struggle with Indiana, but the win over Penn State has the Wolverines back into the top 4 in both polls. Michigan’s next four games are favorable as well:

• Michigan State (HOME)
• Rutgers (AWAY)
• Nebraska (HOME)
• No. 18 Illinois (HOME)

After this stretch the Wolverines head to Ohio State, which is looking like it could be the game of the year right now. If the Buckeyes can also get past Penn State, there is a chance that both teams head into the game with an 11-0 record and a trip to the Big Ten title game on the line.

For now, Michigan needs to worry about Michigan State. The Spartans are 3-4 this year and just won their first conference game of the year over Wisconsin. Outside of a major upset, the only team that could give Michigan football a scare is Illinois — which will be a home game on senior day. It looks likely (but not guaranteed) that Michigan heads into its final game 11-0, and that the floor for Michigan football is 11-1 with a trip to the Rose Bowl.

Good teams make New Year’s Six bowls, great teams win them, and elite teams settle for them. Right now, it is looking like Michigan is in the last category.