Michigan Football’s AP Poll ranking: A deep dive into what it means

Michigan football’s preseason ranking just came out for the AP Poll, and the Wolverines slotted in at #8. I, like Josh, who has already provided some thoughts about this ranking, think this is a few spots too low, but it’s okay.

There are a few reasons why Michigan football’s ranking (for now) is fair. The first AP Poll is always a projection of how good the AP Poll thinks that team is, and can be.

Now, the gripe from most fans looking at the list would be the rankings of Clemson (who’s way too high, to be honest), Texas A&M, and Utah, but these rankings are honestly meaningless right now.

As long as Michigan football starts in the top 10, it is OK.

If you look at the teams ranked above Michigan football, if you put horse blinders on for some teams and/or squint real hard, you can see why they have the teams ranked above Michigan.

The obvious choice for #1 was Alabama. They didn’t win the title last year, but they’re the one ranking you can’t argue, regardless of how you feel. The epitome of consistency and dominance.

Everyone expects Ohio State to rebound, which is why they are #2. The most explosive offense in the country is expected from them, and I think this ranking is fair. The Buckeyes are always up at or near the top annually.

Next up is Georgia, who obviously just won the national title. I don’t think Georgia will be quite as good this year as last year obviously because they lost so much on defense, but for now, you have to put the defending national champs up near the top. That’s how it goes.

At #4 is where it gets really controversial, as Clemson did nothing last year to justify their top-four ranking, but apparently, the AP Poll loves them. They have been one of the most consistent and dominant programs over the last decade though, so maybe recency bias comes into play here?

Notre Dame is still very consistent as well, as the Irish just missed out on the playoff last year. Notre Dame is also always ranked high, so no surprise here.

Texas A&M is solely ranked high because they just brought in a historically great recruiting class and are in the SEC (bias). They’ve done nothing to justify being ranked this high, and have never made a playoff appearance, but this ranking is purely based on potential, and that historic recruiting class.

Lastly is Utah. The Utes appeared in the Rose Bowl last year, and bring back a lot of pieces from last season. The veteran leadership for the Utes bodes well for them, although their ceiling is probably the Rose Bowl or a similar bowl again. That’s getting way ahead though.

Lastly is Michigan.

I think Michigan football losing all it lost on defense, combined with a new defensive coordinator, gave them this #8 ranking.

Teams towards the back half of the top-10 are still uber talented but tend to have more questions than the top half of the top-10, which is why the Wolverines are ranked where they are.

Michigan has a lot of questions and has to replace a lot of production on defense, so they were ranked towards the back half of the top 10.

Looking around the college football landscape

If we look at the rankings from a bird’s eye view, and all of the Week 1 matchups, there is a lot of potential for movement from this AP Poll and the next one to come out.

Alabama plays Texas in Week 1, Ohio State plays Notre Dame, Georgia plays Oregon, and Utah plays Florida (although Florida isn’t ranked).

Obviously, we can pretty much chalk up Michigan’s Week 1 game as a win, which would turn our eyes to the other matchups. I think Notre Dame and Utah (surprisingly) will both lose their Week 1 games. If not Utah, then Notre Dame almost assuredly, at least in my opinion.

Also, beware of Oregon. I wouldn’t be surprised if they upset Georgia, as Georgia’s former DC is now Oregon’s HC, so they should come prepared and know what to expect from Georgia’s offense.

So, Michigan should move up a spot the following week, before the Week 2 matchup. In Week 2, Texas A&M plays Miami, as that can be a potential loss right there. Clemson plays NC State in Week 3. Another team ranked above Michigan could potentially fall.

My main point is, that before Michigan even gets into conference play, they might sniff the top-5 of the AP Poll ranking. So, for all the fans (myself included) that think Michigan’s spot is just a teensy bit too low, just know the Wolverines will almost assuredly move up the following week, and possibly into the top-5 by Week 3. I must add that all of that could happen before conference play, which would be awesome.

And anyways, the AP Poll doesn’t even matter. It’s just a number to put on a team, to make the fans excited until the playoff rankings come out, which actually do matter.

Don’t stress. Teams will start falling very soon and Michigan will move up. Until then though, this ranking is fine.