The Risk vs. Reward Factor in Michigan Football’s Quarterback Battle

Breaking down the risk vs reward factor in Michigan football’s quarterback debate for the upcoming season.

One of the common narratives about Michigan football’s quarterback battle is that Cade McNamara is the “safer” option of the two, the game manager type that won’t cost the team the game.

Meanwhile, J.J. McCarthy has the higher ceiling but is more willing to put the ball in danger. You can infer that to mean McNamara is less likely to turn the ball over.

McNamara threw 15 touchdown passes against six interceptions last season and posted a 1.8% interception rate. McCarthy threw five touchdown passes, two interceptions, and had a 3.3% interception. He also had a few plays that extended longer than he should have which could have led to turnovers.

Most notably, fans remember McCarthy’s fumble in the fourth quarter against Michigan State. That play did not cost Michigan the game, but McCarthy will need to cut down on negative plays in order to wrestle away the starting job from McNamara. However, I am going to propose a different scenario. What if McCarthy doesn’t cut down on his turnovers. . . but is still highly successful?

The risk is worth it for Michigan football with McCarthy

Hopefully, Michigan football plays 15 games this season, but I am going to use 12 games in this scenario. Let’s say McCarthy has 350 attempts in 12 games. If he throws 10 interceptions, he would have an interception rate of 2.8%. That mark would have tied for the second most interceptions in the Big Ten.

However, if McCarthy throws 30-35 touchdown passes, will anyone really complain about the interceptions? McCarthy also would have been second in touchdown passes in the Big Ten behind Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud and had over a 3/1 TD/INT ratio.

If McCarthy is given the opportunity, he has the talent to throw 30+ TD passes and shatter the program record. A record that is long overdue to be broken in my humble opinion.

To be clear, I do not expect McCarthy to be a turnover machine. In over 700 high school attempts, he only threw 12 interceptions. McCarthy also is an accurate passer and now he has a year of experience under his belt and knows what he can and can’t get away with at the college level.

Additionally, while Cade McNamara protected the ball for most of the year, in Michigan’s biggest three games, he had one touchdown pass, four interceptions, and averaged 144.6 yards per game.

In the CFP Semifinal against Georgia, Michigan totaled 168 yards on 4.2 yards per play in the eight drives led by McNamara. Georgia had an NFL defense, but those are the type of units Michigan will have to beat in order to win a national title.

Michigan is good enough to win the Big Ten with McNamara under center. However, to compete on the national level, J.J. McCarthy needs to be the one under center.

McCarthy raises the ceiling of the offense with his arm talent, even if that comes with a couple more turnovers. However, in this case, I say the potential rewards of McNamara’s talents outweigh the risk of turnovers.