Michigan Basketball: Staying in draft makes sense for Caleb Houstan

Breaking down why it makes sense for Michigan basketball’s Caleb Houstan to keep his name in the 2022 NBA draft. 

In today’s game, five-star recruits usually enter college with the expectation of playing for one season before heading to the NBA.

That is particularly the case when they are ranked as high as Caleb Houston, who was the 11th overall player in the 2021 class. Houstan did not live up to the lofty expectations Michigan basketball fans had for him and have the kind of the season that would assure himself of being a lottery pick.

Houstan has until June 1st to decide if he is going to remain in the draft. While he is not a lock for the first round, entering the draft still makes sense for Houstan, and here is why.

Staying in the draft makes sense for Michigan basketball’s Caleb Houstan

There is prestige attached with being a first-round pick, particularly in the lottery. However, the main appeal of being a first-round pick is job security. NBA first-round picks receive guaranteed contracts with the first two years guaranteed and team options in years three and four.

In recent years, more guaranteed contracts have been given to more second round picks. Of last year’s second-round picks, 13 of the 30 received at least two fully guaranteed years. That includes 10 players from picks 31-43, including former wolverine Isaiah Livers who went 42nd overall.

There are also reports that Houstan has a promise from a team. ESPN’s Jonathan Givony recently mocked Houstan 30th overall to Oklahoma City. Sam Vecenie of The Athletic mocked him 36th overall (subscription required) to the Portland Trail Blazers.

Now, mock drafts are just projections, particularly in a year where the No.1 overall pick is still up in the air.

However, with two projections in the top 36 and a possible promise from a team, it is reasonable to assume that Houstan will be selected in the top 45 picks and secure a guaranteed contract.

Now, one can certainly make the case that Houstan could improve his game and draft stock by returning to school.

However, that comes with the risk of injury and another challenging season that could kill his draft stock altogether. I think the main things Houstan needs to improve are his handle and explosiveness.

That would help him create more shots for himself and become a better defender. However, those are things he can work on as a pro. In fact, he’ll actually have more time to work on his game as a pro and not have to worry about school.

Additionally, going later in the draft could actually serve as a benefit. If he is selected in the 20s, that increases the chance of him landing with a good organization.

Playing time may not be available as quickly, but for a high-upside prospect like Houstan, the situation will be important. Using a couple of former Wolverines as examples, Nik Stauskas went 8th overall to the Kings, and Jordan Poole went 28th overall to the Warriors.

Stauskas’s career has fizzled out. Poole had a rocky start during the Warriors’ struggles and even spent some time in the G-League, but learning from Steph Curry and Klay Thompson has helped Poole emerge as a breakout star in line for a huge payday.

Oklahoma City would offer a solid situation for Houstan. The Thunder have a solid track record for developing players and they also have a need for wings. However, I think the Milwaukee Bucks would be a great situation for him.

The Bucks own the 24th pick and have a need for wing depth and perimeter. Houstan could learn from Khris Middleton, whose game has a similar archetype to Houston. Additionally, playing with Middleton, the game’s best player in Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Jrue Holiday will give Houstan plenty of open threes.