Michigan Basketball’s NCAA Tournament path is simple: Win and in
Michigan basketball lost a key game against Illinois and we take a look at the Wolverines’ path to the NCAA Tournament with three games to go.
The loss on Sunday to Illinois hurt Michigan basketball‘s hopes of making the NCAA Tournament. There is no sugarcoating that.
Before the game, Bart Torvik’s NCAA projections gave Michigan basketball an 84 percent chance of making the big dance, and following the eight-point loss to Illinois, the Wolverines percentage dropped down to 67 percent which probably accurately reflects where U-M stands.
Michigan basketball is 15-12 overall and 9-8 in Big Ten play. There are some really good wins such as Purdue (at home), San Diego State (at home), along with road wins over Indiana and Iowa. That is a total of four quadrant-1 wins.
But 12 losses is a lot. However, the Wolverines don’t have any really bad losses outside of the home loss to Minnesota, which is really the one you wish Michigan could have back.
Still, the Wolverines aren’t finished and they don’t even need to win all three regular-season games remaining to make the field. It’s true that they are on the outside looking in according to some projections such as the latest bracket from Jerry Palm of CBS Sports, who has Michigan in his last four out.
Joe Lunardi hasn’t released his new update yet but does it really matter? The bottom line is that if Michigan doesn’t win two of its next three games, it probably isn’t going to make it, outside of a run in the Big Ten tournament.
The point is that Michigan, even with 12 losses, is going to have a strong chance to make the tournament if its reaches 11 Big Ten wins. I just don’t see an 11-9 Big Ten team getting left out, especially if Michigan gets to six quad-1 wins.
It’s likely a 14-loss Michigan team even avoids the first four. But anything beyond that will put this team squarely on the bubble and possibly on the outside looking in. So it’s simple for the Wolverines: Win and you’re in.
Next. 3 takeaways from loss to Illinois. dark
But against Michigan State, Iowa, and then Ohio State — all in the same week — that’s much easier said than done.