Will NIL rules cause players to stay in school longer?

Another look at what new NIL rules could mean down the road for the Michigan football and basketball programs. 

On July 1st, the new NIL rules went into effect allowing college athletes to profit off the use of their name, image, and likeness. The college sports world has been in a frenzy ever since. Many Michigan athletes have already signed deals themselves.

Michigan football players have their custom jerseys with their names and numbers on the back of them available for sale at The MDen.

Defensive end Aidan Hutchinson and safety Daxton Hill both have a partnership with The Players Trunk and were the first current Michigan athletes to take part in an autograph signing at The MDen.  Several Michigan football players partnered with Yoke Gaming while Michigan basketball guard Adrien Nunez launched a website with his own apparel for sale.

Due to the NIL rules passing on July 1st, it was after this year’s NFL Draft so we have yet to see the effect of NIL on NFL draft decisions. We did, however, get a small glimpse of the impact of the NBA Draft.

Franz Wagner was projected a lottery pick all season and he was likely gone after last season either way. However, Hunter Dickinson also seriously considered making the jump to the NBA. Dickinson likely would not have been selected if he declared, but he did cite NIL as a factor in his return.

I don’t think he will be the last.

For players that are shoo-ins to be first-round picks, NIL likely will not affect their draft decisions except in rare cases. One such example would be a quarterback. Generally, NFL teams prefer quarterbacks with more experience before selecting them in the NFL Draft. A few of the rules in Hall of Fame NFL coach Bill Parcells’ criteria for drafting a QB, include being a three-year starter, a graduate from college, and a senior in college.

What it could mean for Michigan football

Let’s assume Cade McNamara holds off J.J. McCarthy for the starting job this season and McCarthy takes over either in 2022 or 2023 as a sophomore or redshirt sophomore. If McCarthy starts two years, he could put himself in a position to be a first-round pick.

However with his return for the third year as a starter, Michigan could be in a position to be a preseason top-five team. With two productive seasons under his belt and the notoriety he would receive from being Michigan’s QB, it is very likely that McCarthy will do very well in profiting off his name, image, and likeness.

In that situation, I don’t think it is out of the question that McCarthy would decide to return to school another year.

It is more likely that NIL will have a larger effect on players that could improve their draft stock by returning to school.  Ambry Thomas opted out of last season, but he was still selected in the third round of the NFL Draft this year.

However, I think Thomas could have improved his draft position with another season of tape. South Carolina’s Jaycee Horn and Northwestern’s Greg Newsome both played themselves into the first round with their play last season. Perhaps if Thomas had been able to profit from his name, image, and likeness, he might have decided to return to Michigan football this season.

Some college players decide to stay in school and bypass the draft for reasons like getting their degrees, another shot at winning conference and national championships, and another year of the college experience. I think we will see an increase in college players including NIL in their reasoning for staying in school another year in the future.