If Big Ten plans to expand, geography must take precedence

What the Big Ten should consider when looking at expanding the conference. 

The college sports landscape has been in an uproar since Texas and Oklahoma’s flirtation with the SEC became public. The long-time rivals formally notified the SEC that they will be seeking an invitation for membership beginning July 1, 2025.

At this point, I would assume Texas and Oklahoma will join the SEC before that four-year window. While the timing of their departure is surprising, the Big 12 has been vulnerable for years and Texas and Oklahoma hold most of the power in that conference.

The Big 12 has been ripe for the picking since the last realignment cycle, which saw Texas A&M and Missouri depart for the SEC, Colorado to the PAC-12, and Nebraska joining the Big Ten.

While Texas and Oklahoma are changing conferences, their footprint is not changing. With their additions to the SEC, the conference will have control of the majority of the major schools in the South spanning from the Southeast now to the Southwest.

Texas gets to renew its heated rivalry with Texas A&M while Arkansas was a member of the old Southwest Conference along with the Longhorns and Aggies. LSU recruits heavily in Texas already and should have some contentious battles in recruiting and on the field with Texas and Oklahoma. The Sooners already have their own bit of bad blood with the SEC stemming from recent bowl matchups against Alabama and Florida.

The Big Ten could have been proactive and added Texas and Oklahoma themselves. Texas and Oklahoma could have been expanded the Big Ten in the Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and Oklahoma City TV markets, all of which rank in the top 50 markets in the country.

Texas and Oklahoma also would have been a natural pairing with former Big 12 foe Nebraska, with whom the Sooners share a long and heated rivalry. Instead, the Big Ten opted to add Rutgers and Maryland in the last round of conference realignment.

Sure, it has been great for TV revenue. New York is the largest TV market, Washington, DC ranks 7th while Baltimore is 26th. However athletically, Maryland and Rutgers have not added much to the Big Ten, particularly on the football field. While TV revenue will remain at the forefront of conference expansion if the Big Ten plans to expand in the future, geography must be an important factor.

Schools the Big Ten should consider adding, starting with Notre Dame

The home run addition for the Big Ten would be Notre Dame.

The Fighting Irish already have rivalries with Michigan, Michigan State, and Purdue along with history against Penn State and Ohio State. Its location in Indiana is prime territory in the Big Ten footprint and would put all of the Midwest’s powers in the same conference.

With the addition of Notre Dame, the Big Ten would have five of the top nine winningest college football programs historically. Notre Dame would also fit the Big Ten academically. The Big Ten takes its affiliation with the Association of American Universities (AAU) very seriously and would want any new school to be an AAU member.

Notre Dame is not an AAU member, but it is very likely the Big Ten would make an exception for them. However, Notre Dame is already an ACC school in every sport besides football. Additionally, per Notre Dame’s agreement to join the ACC to compete in football for the 2020 season, if it decides a join a conference from now until 2036, it would move into the ACC.

Perhaps the Big Ten could buy the ACC out if it wanted Notre Dame that badly. However given the ACC’s willingness to let Notre Dame dance around permanent membership, let’s assume it is off the board for this exercise.

Beyond Notre Dame, the Big Ten’s options to expand are not great if they are looking for a school with the perfect mix of athletics and academics.

The most frequent schools mentioned as possible Big Ten members are Kansas and Iowa State. Both of those schools are AAU institutions so they fit from an academic standpoint. Kansas would be a great addition to the Big Ten for basketball, but its football team would be an anchor to a conference that already has Rutgers. In the last decade, Kansas won just 18 games in football.

Iowa State is currently in the midst of one of the better stretches in its football history, but Matt Campbell’s name has been thrown around for many jobs over the last few seasons. It seems likely that he leaves in the next few seasons and I would expect their football team to decline once that happens.

They are also coming off a 2-22 basketball season and historically, they are just above .500 with a .504 winning percentage. If it joined the Big Ten, it would be great for its rivalry with Iowa. However, I don’t think it is necessary to have two Big Ten schools in Iowa given its market size.

In my opinion, the better pairing with Kansas would be Missouri who already has rivalries with Kansas and Nebraska. It would also get the Big Ten into the St. Louis and Kansas City markets. However, Missouri is already a member of the SEC and I doubt it would leave for the Big Ten at this point.

Another idea for the Big Ten would be to merge with the PAC-12. Let’s assume that the Big Ten wants to get to an even 20 schools and adds USC, UCLA. Cal, Stanford, Oregon, and Washington.

It would lead to great matchups, particularly on the football field with more frequent matchups like Michigan vs. USC, Ohio State vs. Washington, and Penn State vs. Oregon. The conference championship game could even be held at the Rose Bowl.

However, logistically it would be a nightmare.

If Rutgers plays conference games at UCLA, Cal, and Oregon, that would be a total of 8,711 miles of travel for three separate trips. Purdue traveling from West Lafayette, IN to Seattle, WA to play Washington would be a 2,190-mile trip.

The additional travel would put an added toll on the budget for most programs, particularly in non-revenue sports. The big revenue generators like Michigan, Oregon, and Ohio State could afford it, but everyone would not be able to.

Sure, the new mega conference would probably form a new television network to offset some costs and market itself as the only conference coast-to-coast. However, the student-athletes must be taken into consideration as well. The additional travel, presumably via plane, would be a toll on the student-athletes.

Michigan basketball could have a stretch where it plays at Stanford and Nebraska, home dates against Iowa and Illinois before another trip out to Maryland. All the travel into various time zones would make it difficult to stay on top of schoolwork and attend classes as well. I mean that is the point of college, right?

With its preference for AAU members, the Big Ten is limiting its options for expansion with schools like Cincinnati, Memphis, West Virginia, and Oklahoma State that will not be considered.

However, should the Big Ten expand, it must keep geography among its most important factors. College sports are regional and it will be difficult to naturally form rivalries when opposing fans rarely interact with each other.

Some of the most bitter rivalries in college sports like Michigan’s rivalries with Michigan State and Ohio State, Alabama-Auburn, and Miami-Florida State, partially stem from the proximity of the fan bases. Most importantly, the Big Ten can make life easier on its student-athletes by keeping its members in relatively the same geographic footprint.