Why Michigan Football might thrive being under the radar

Every year rival fans and some Michigan fans complain about Michigan football being overhyped and all the Harbaugh propaganda.

This year that will not be the case. Michigan was picked to finish fourth in the Big Ten East in the preseason media poll. With the Wolverines coming off a 2-4 season, trashing them is the popular thing to do. The national preseason polls have not been released yet, but Michigan will likely rank in the 20s if it is ranked at all.

However, the Wolverines may be able to use that to their advantage.

In the last fifteen years, Michigan has had five double-digit win seasons (2006, 2011, 2015, 2016, and 2018). In four of five seasons, Michigan was not ranked in the top 10 of the preseason AP top 25 with 2016 being the exception.

In 2011 and 2015, Michigan was not ranked in the preseason AP top 25 at all. The 2021 Michigan football team probably draws the closest parallels to the 2011 and 2015 teams.

In 2011, Michigan entered the season with huge questions marks on defense following the Rich Rodriguez era. The Wolverines were also transitioning to a new scheme (3-3-5 to a 4-3). They emerged as an opportunistic defense that ranked 6th nationally in scoring defense at 17.4 PPG.

In 2015, the Wolverines had more questions on the offensive side entering Jim Harbaugh’s first season. After some early-season struggles, Michigan football began to take off offensively after QB Jake Rudock found his rhythm.

The one big difference between those teams and the 2021 teams is experience at quarterback. In 2011, Michigan had Denard Robinson under center. While I could make the case we never got to see Robinson reach his ceiling because of the transition back to the pro-style offense, he was still one of the most dynamic players in college football.

Rudock had two years of starting experience at Iowa when he transferred to Michigan, however, he was not expected to be more than a game manager.

In two seasons at Iowa, Rudock had 4,411 passing yards, 31 touchdown passes to 14 interceptions while completing 59.8% of his passes. At Michigan, Rudock completed 64% of his passes, threw for 3,017 yards, 20 touchdown passes, and nine interceptions.

Cade McNamara is the favorite to be Michigan’s starting quarterback this season. While I would prefer that J.J. McCarthy is the starter in the long run because of his ceiling, I am confident that McNamara would at least give Michigan Jake Rudock type production if he is given a full season.

How many games can Michigan win in 2021?

I expect Michigan to win eight or nine games this season, but getting to 10 wins would not surprise me. Two games that I see as swing games for this season are Indiana and Northwestern.

Indiana and Northwestern both enjoyed surprising seasons in 2020 and would have met in the Big Ten Championship had the Big Ten stuck to its six-game minimum requirement.

Northwestern was picked to finish 3rd in the Big Ten West this season and Indiana was picked 3rd in the East, ahead of Michigan. Indiana ranks 39th in the country in returning production, including star QB Michael Penix, and added some notable transfers like running back Stephen Carr and wide receivers Cam’Ron Buckley and D.J. Matthews.

However, returning production does not always equal more success the following season. Indiana has a more difficult schedule this season with road games at Iowa, Penn State, and Michigan and home dates vs. Ohio State and Cincinnati.

Northwestern is on the opposite end of the spectrum, ranking 126th in returning production. However, the bigger thing to me is their inconsistency as a program. Northwestern has won 10 games three games Pat Fitzgerald, but never consecutively.

Two of those years were followed up by 5-7 and 7-6 records. Using Northwestern’s 7-2 record 2020 as a 10-win equivalent, I do not expect the Wildcats to be as formidable this season. Michigan has more talent than Northwestern and Indiana and both games are at home, so I expect Michigan to win both.

In my opinion, the key for Michigan in 2021 will be winning the games it is supposed to win. From there if the Wolverines are able to get a split out of the more difficult games (Washington, @Penn State, @Wisconsin, and Ohio State) on its schedule, the path to 10 wins is there.

If Michigan football is able to reach 10 wins this season, it will be another year where it performed better when expectations were low.