Michigan Football: How expanded playoff could impact Wolverines

Since the advent of the College Football Playoff, just 11 of the 127 FBS teams (8.6%) have earned a berth in the field. It has become very easy to predict the four-team field in the offseason. Take Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State, sprinkle in Oklahoma, Notre Dame, and the occasional additional SEC team and there you have it. In fact, the PAC-12 has been left out of the CFP since 2016 when Washington made it.

Michigan football hasn’t made it and with fans across the country growing tired of watching the same schools compete for a national championship, ratings have been in decline.

With that in mind, it is no surprise that the sport’s power brokers are in early discussions to expand the CFP to 12 teams. The proposed 12-team playoff would be comprised of automatic bids for the Power 5 conference champions, the highest ranked Group of 5 champion, and six at-large bids.

How it affects Michigan fo

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If you go by past rankings, you may be surprised to learn the B1G (3.1 teams) would have averaged more teams in the CFP than the SEC (2.7 teams).

Michigan football narrowly missed making the CFP in 2016 and 2018 after finishing the regular season at 10-2 in both years. Depending on if the seeding would be based on record or in favor of conference champions, Michigan would have been seeded 6th or 7th in 2016.

In 2018, Michigan would have been seeded 7th. In both years, the Wolverines would have been in line to host first-round playoff games.

The atmosphere of hosting a home playoff game at The Big House would provide the opportunity for a huge recruiting weekend and a huge home-field advantage for a playoff game.

Imagine the possibility of Michigan football getting to host a school from a warmer climate like Florida. LSU, or USC.

You can assume those schools would not be thrilled to play in a mid-December/early January game in what would likely be freezing cold and snowy conditions. Using the NFL as an example, the cold weather plays a part in why the New England Patriots and Green Bay Packers are difficult to beat at home.

An expanded playoff field could also possibly change the narrative surrounding Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh.

Think about this: if Michigan was a part of a 12-team playoff field in 2016 and 2018, the Wolverines would have made the playoffs in two of Harbaugh’s first four seasons at the helm.

While fans would remain irked by the 0-5 record to Ohio State and the lack of B1G titles, it would be hard to complain about two CFP appearances in four years given the program’s struggles over the previous decade.

One area where you could have seen the difference in perception directly is recruiting.

Michigan’s 2018 recruiting class finished 22nd in the recruiting rankings, according to 247sports, partly due to a lack of momentum following the 8-5 record in 2017. While several impact players emerged from that class like Aidan Hutchinson, Cam McGrone, Jalen Mayfield, and Ronnie Bell, there were also a few key misses down the stretch.

Many of the elite recruits want to get to the NFL, but they also want to win while they are in college. You can certainly make the case that Michigan would have been in a better position to close with its elite targets if the program already had a CFP appearance in 2016.

I believe an 8-team field would be ideal for the CFP because that is more reflective of the number of teams capable of winning the national championship in my opinion. However, Michigan recruits well enough to annually be one of the top 12 teams in the country under Jim Harbaugh. I am in favor of anything that increases Michigan’s chances of winning the national championship.