Michigan Football: 3 predictions for Wolverines and UCLA in Elite 8
Michigan basketball has the chance to hang another Final Four banner on Tuesday night and here are three predictions for the Wolverines and UCLA.
It’s a quick turnaround from the Sweet 16 to the Elite 8 and in less than 12 hours, Michigan basketball will be taking the floor against UCLA for a trip to the Final Four.
UCLA wasn’t necessarily one of the teams you worried about knocking Michigan basketball out of the tournament, since the Bruins were a No. 11 seed, but they have put together a historic run and have also moved all the way up to No. 14 in the Kenpom rankings.
The Bruins were 17-5 at one point this season before losing four-straight games (all to NCAA tourney teams) to close out the season. That streak pushed them to an 11 seed but now they have become only the second team to lose four straight games before the tournament to reach the Elite 8.
On paper and by seed, Alabama seemed like the tougher matchup. Anytime you have a team that defends the way the Crimson Tide does, plus shoot it as well from beyond the arc, it can be trouble.
But Michigan basketball shouldn’t overlook UCLA. This is going to be a test and the Bruins are a skilled shooting team loaded with seven top-100 recruits and three top-50 recruits.
Michigan likes to force teams to shoot mid-range shots. The Wolverines excel at protecting the rim with the third-best 2-point defense in the country (42.6 percent), while ranking 66th in the fewest 3-pointers attempted by opponents.
Those are positive stats for Michigan. UCLA is going to have to shoot the lights out to win this game, both from deep and in the mid-range. It’s possible, but also more difficult to do against Michigan’s defense and that’s where we start our Elite 8 predictions.
Michigan’s defense will bother UCLA
This is going to turn into a half-court game. The Bruins like to run a lot of sets and actions. It’s not a bunch of chaos like Florida State or hero ball like LSU.
But the Wolverines are one of the best defensive teams in the country. They are really good at defending ball screens and the 3-point line.
They also have a secret weapon: Franz Wagner.
Wagner is a 6-foot-9 wing who can almost guard one through five. He’s just a spectacular defensive player and it seems like he will be guarding Jaime Jaquez.
The problem is that could leave Brandon Johns to guard Jules Bernard and he’s just as good a 3-point shooter percentage-wise. That’s why this could be a game where Chaundee Brown plays more if Michigan needs to go smaller.
In terms of Johnny Juzang, that’s likely a job for Eli Brooks, as well as Brown in shifts off the bench.
Johns should still see plenty of minutes. He’s been so clutch and his size inside will be a mismatch on the offensive end for Michigan, not to mention the glass.
But I think you’ll see more of Wagner, Brown, Hunter Dickinson, Mike Smith and Eli Brooks. UCLA is a tough offensive team and there’s no doubt they are going to make shots. Yet, the length and size of the Wolverines are hard to prepare for and I think U-M holds the Bruins to the mid-60s.