Joe Milton is ultimate X-factor for Michigan football in 2020

It’s hard to predict how good Michigan football will be this season and that’s because we don’t know what we’ll see from Joe Milton.

Now that we actually have a Michigan football season to look forward to next month, there’s been an onslaught of predictions since the new schedule was released Saturday.

And one prediction of sorts, that people tend to pay attention, is the ESPN’s Football Power Index. According to the ESPN FPI, which measures each team in the country, the Wolverines are projected to win 4.9 games.

It’s probably not surprising, given that Michigan football probably has the toughest schedule in the Big Ten. Not only do they play Penn State and Ohio State, as well as Indiana in the East division, but U-M’s crossover games also feature Wisconsin and Minnesota, the top teams in the West.

ESPN gives Michigan a better than 80 percent chance to beat Michigan State, Rutgers and Maryland, while it gives U-M a 55-percent chance vs Minnesota and 50.2 when facing Indiana.

The last two games are on the road, which is why the lower percentage makes some sense. And of course, the Wolverines shouldn’t be expected to beat Ohio State.

But the games I have a problem and had a problem with when ESPN did its original projection for 2020 are Penn State and Wisconsin.

Despite the fact that Michigan football will be at home, even without fans, the ESPN FPI gives the Wolverines just a 22.5 percent chance of beating Wisconsin and a 28.6 percent chance of defeating Penn State.

Michigan football can beat Penn State and Wisconsin

To me, that’s just insane. The Wolverines have won two in a row at home against both teams and three of the four wins were lopsided. Even last year, Michigan probably should have beaten Penn State on the road and while Wisconsin won handily, U-M just had a really bad day.

Michigan has just as much talent, if not more than both Wisconsin and Penn State, so the idea that those programs would be expected to win in Ann Arbor is silly.

It’s possible that those teams can win, just like it’s possible that Indiana can beat Michigan or that Michigan could beat Ohio State, but it’s another thing to say it’s likely.

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The ESPN FPI still rates Michigan football as the No. 15 team and once we see what Joe Milton can do, the Wolverines could improve.

The losses of Nico Collins and Ambry Thomas will hurt, but the Wolverines are still loaded with NFL talent on both sides of the ball. The unknown right now is Milton.

Penn State and Wisconsin both have more experienced quarterbacks and that could have something to do with it. The inexperience and unknown at quarterback for Michigan is also contributing to the Wolverines win projection being on the low side.

To me, 6-2 makes a lot of sense. Jim Harbaugh and the Wolverines have been very good at home, losing only to Ohio State and Michigan State during his tenure.

By any objective metric, it’s safe to say that Michigan is the second-most talented program in the Big Ten. So there’s no question in my mind that the Wolverines are being underrated here.

Quarterback is a big reason for that and if Milton isn’t a successful starter, if he’s just average, than 5-3 or 4-4 will likely be an accurate prediction.

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But if he lives up to the hype, Michigan will win at least six of its first seven games and when The Game comes around, a trip to Indy will be on the line.

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