Michigan Football: What’s wrong with Wolverines ESPN projection

ESPN FPI projection has the Michigan football team expected to win between 7-8 games, which probably isn’t unrealistic. But still, in some ways, it doesn’t make sense.

Something you have probably seen other Michigan football fans and websites talking about Tuesday is the Wolverines 2020 projection according to ESPN’s FPI.

It’s the annual Football Power Index put out by ESPN that measures all teams against each other. Michigan football ranks 19th according to the FPI. That doesn’t sound that bad, especially with the unknowns at quarterback.

We also can’t forget that Michigan football is going to have a double-digit number of players signed or draft into the NFL this weekend, including last year’s starting quarterback and also Donovan Peoples-Jones, as well as pass rusher Josh Uche, two guys that left with eligibility remaining.

The offensive line lost four of their five starters and the defense also lost long-time starters Lavert Hill and Khaleke Hudson.

However, there are reasons for optimism and honestly, the FPI seems to be overrating Wisconsin and Penn State just a bit. Both teams are ranked among the top 7 and are given a 23 percent chance or better of making the College Football Playoff.

Against each team, the FPI gives Michigan football less than a 30 percent chance of winning the game, even though both matchups come at the Big House, where the Wolverines have won consecutive games against both Penn State and Wisconsin.

If Michigan had played Wisconsin or Penn State at the Big House last season, the Wolverines likely would have won, just as they did against No. 8 Notre Dame, in blowout fashion I might add.

I get that Michigan isn’t likely to beat Ohio State next season. I’d also say that games at Washington, Minnesota and even Michigan State could prove just as difficult as home games against Penn State and Wisconsin.

That’s why this projection doesn’t make a ton of sense. Outside of Ohio State, only Mark Dantonio and the Spartans have beaten Jim Harbaugh and the Wolverines in Ann Arbor — over the course of five years — and FPI expects U-M to lose back-to-back home games?

The quarterback situation isn’t that bad.

Outside of Ohio State, that 2015 Michigan State team is the only other ranked team to leave Ann Arbor with a win and since that debacle vs the Spartans, Michigan has won seven straight at home against ranked teams not named Ohio State.

That includes two wins over Wisconsin, a win over Notre Dame, Penn State, Northwestern, Iowa and BYU, with five of the seven coming by double digits.

It’s certainly possible that Michigan football loses one game to Wisconsin and Penn State, but I doubt the Wolverines lose both. At the same time, I have a hard time seeing this Michigan team winning both games at Washington and Minnesota.

Winning one of those games is more likely, and of the three toughest road games, not including Ohio State, the Wolverines recent record just about guarantees at least one loss. With six top-30 opponents on the schedule and three games on the road against those top 30 teams, 2-3 losses is reasonable.

Even 4-5 is not impossible, but if Michigan falls to 7-5, my prediction is because it will have gone 0-4 on the road against MSU, Minnesota, Washington and Ohio State. The road record will define the season and no matter what FPI says, Michigan is still darn tough to beat at home.