Michigan football: 4 things to watch for against Wisconsin

Intangibles

Did I already mention that the Wolverines have lost their last four games at Camp Randall dating back to 2001?

This doesn’t just relate to Wisconsin, however. It’s a deeper, more alarming, trend.

Michigan goes into Madison as three-point underdogs. It’s the first time it’s hasn’t been favored since Ohio State in 2017. The Wolverines haven’t won as an underdog since 2013, which includes 13 contests since then.

Betting lines are arbitrary. But it’s not the actual spread that matters: rather, it’s the idea that it conveys. Michigan is entering hostile territory against a possibly superior team.

If you were to name the best win of the Harbaugh era, where would you land? Options include a 14-7 win over a top-10 Badger team in Ann Arbor in 2016, a 38-13 win over the Badgers last year, 49-10 and 42-7 drubbings of good Penn State teams at home in those same seasons. Maybe you could even throw in the 17-point comeback and 20-17 win at Northwestern last year, in terms of in-game adversity.

Certainly, none of those results compare to the impact of what this win would be if it took place. The Wolverines have beaten only one ranked team on the road under Harbaugh, much less a Top-15 team. They haven’t done that since 2006, actually.

Let’s be clear: Jim Harbaugh is as far from the hot seat as he could possibly be. But the frustration that some (many) Michigan fans feel despite a 40-14 record in four-plus years is very real and very understandable. How many of those 40 wins mattered? How many of those 14 losses, had they gone the Wolverines’ way instead, would have mattered, more than any of the wins that actually took place?

The answer to the latter question is just about all of them.

That’s why Saturday’s stakes are so high. Michigan won’t win a national championship in Madison, but it can do just as much to change the perception of its trajectory.