Michigan Football: Why Wolverines need Notre Dame to keep winning
When it comes to Michigan football and the College Football Playoff, it’s in the Wolverines best interest to have Notre Dame keep winning.
After dominating wins over top-25 teams and winning seven straight games, Michigan football is being talked about as a contender for the College Football Playoff. In fact, many national analysts have already started projecting the Wolverines as a playoff team.
Obviously, the team shouldn’t be focused on anything other than Penn State, the team that Michigan football will play after its bye week on Nov. 3. Yet, while the team shouldn’t be focused on what will take place down the road, for fans and pundits, it’s a little tougher to stay in the moment.
The first College Football Playoff rankings will come out next week and there is a good chance Michigan is somewhere in the top five, if not the top four. That would lead one to believe that if the Wolverines simply win out, they will make it. However, that might not be the case and that’s why the Wolverines need their resume to be as strong as possible.
And as we have learned over the years, wins and losses are both taken into account. That’s why it might be in the best interest of Michigan football to see Notre Dame keep winning. Certainly, it’s not my favorite thing to write, but in the long run, it might prove to be true.
The Fighting Irish have five games left against Northwestern, USC, Syracuse, Navy and Florida State. The road games at Northwestern and USC may pose the biggest problems, but there is still a good chance the Irish go undefeated.
If that happens, they will likely be a playoff team. Yet, what if the Irish had one loss? Then it’s a much tougher decision. You would think a conference champion would make it over Notre Dame, but what if that conference champion is Michigan? Would a one-loss Wolverines team make it over a one-loss Notre Dame team that beat UM in Week One?
That’s a hard question to answer. Ohio State made it over Penn State a few years ago, but the Nittany Lions also had two losses compared to one. However, they were Big Ten champions and Ohio State still made it, even with a head-to-head loss, so head-to-head isn’t everything.
If Michigan does win out, there are a couple scenarios that get a little scary. One is if Texas or Oklahoma runs the table, especially if Texas beats the Sooners twice or Oklahoma pays back Texas for its loss and finishes 12-1. A 12-1 Sooners team with a win over Texas and a close loss to the Horns might be tough to keep out.
Yet, in that situation, if Michigan were to finish 12-1, it might get an edge from the committee, knowing its only loss came to an undefeated Notre Dame team already in the playoff. That loss, plus wins over Wisconsin, Michigan State, Penn State, Ohio State and in the Big Ten title game should be enough.
Outside of the challenge from the Big 12 champion, the other threat I see to a 12-1 Michigan team is a 12-1 Alabama team fresh off a loss in the SEC title game.
Michigan Wolverines
Say that the Crismon Tide beats LSU and Georgia wins out. If those two met, the winner of that game would go the playoff. If Georgia lost, it would have two losses and would be eliminated. However, if Alabama lost a close game to the Bulldogs and finished 12-1, it’s possible, just like last season, that Bama gets the nod over a one-loss Big Ten champion.
That’s where the quality loss to Notre Dame could come into play again. Ohio State’s loss last season came in blowout fashion to Iowa, an above-average team. Alabama’s came against a tough Auburn team and ultimately, that, along with the eye test made the difference.
If Ohio State’s only loss was to an undefeated team ranked in the top three, the outcome might have been different. There is no doubt the committee would have viewed the Buckeyes differently, maybe not enough to put them in, but it would have been a closer debate.
If Notre Dame lost to say Northwestern or USC, two mediocre teams, it would weaken their resume, along with weakening the Wolverines at the same time.
So even though it’s not going to be popular, Michigan football fans should root for the Irish to win out, then hope UM does the same. In that scenario at least, it seems much harder to find a way that the Wolverines get left out.
Wins matter, but losses do too and right now, the Wolverines have the best loss in college football and as the playoff creeps closer, that’s something that could play in their favor, as long as Notre Dame can hold up its end of the deal.