Michigan Basketball: Wolverines all over the place in bracketology

Michigan basketball is still all over the place in recent bracketology projections, but what does it mean? What does UM need to do to make the tournament?

Projecting the 68-team NCAA Tourmament field is tricky. But generally, the guys that do it are usually pretty spot-on — within reason. But when it comes to Michigan basketball, which is still all over the place in the different bracketology projections, it’s hard to know what to think.

In all honesty, it was an up-and-down week for Michigan basketball. The Wolverines went 1-1 and notched a road win Sunday over Wisconsin. Yet, they lost earlier in the week to Northwestern, missing a chance to score a pretty solid road win. By the end of the year, it might have even counted as a Tier 1 victory.

That certainly would have helped Michigan in the projections. However, when ESPN released its bracket Monday, put together by Joe Lundari, the Wolverines were all the way up to a six seed. 

Jerry Palm of CBS put out a bracket Sunday morning, before the Wolverines win and he listed Michigan basketball as an eight seed. The win over Wisconsin probably wouldn’t affect things much. They are a Tier 3 win. USA Today also had UM as a No. 9 in its last projection, which was also after the loss to Northwestern.

While it doesn’t matter nearly as much, the Wolverines stayed in the Top 25 for another week, as they were ranked 23rd according to the AP. UM is also ranked 27th by the Kenpom rankings.

The question is, what does all this mean? The Wolverines are 20-7 overall (19-7 against Divison I teams) and 9-5 in the Big Ten. UM ranks fifth in the Big Ten and is among four teams in the conference projected into the field. Nebraska is out as of right now.

The Big Ten actually has some other solid teams, such as Penn State, which is 8-6. But, it has a low RPI, so probably is headed for the NIT. It’s not good that the Big Ten is viewed this way by the committee and it’s a little worrisome.

The Wolverines appear solidly in right now, but its resume might need to be a little stronger than in year’s past because of the weakness of the league. All along, I have felt 10 conference wins would be good enough. In truth, that might not be the case.

Consider a scenario that sees Michigan beat Iowa, then lose its home finale against Ohio State, as well as road games to Maryland and Penn State. Not likely, but not impossible, especially with the up-and-down nature of the team in recent weeks. That would leave Michigan at 21-10 overall, 10-8 in the Big Ten. Texas and Michigan State would still be the best wins. Would that be enough?

As of right now, it probabl wouldn’t be. Michigan probably would still be in the field at that point, but it could potentially make the opener in the Big Ten tournament the determining factor. Win and you get in, lose and you may go home. The committee absolutely looks at how you close and 0-4 would be a bad message.

Win that game and things don’t look nearly as bad. The seed might not great, but better in then out. So with that in mind, what does Michigan need to do to avoid that situation?

The answer, while hardly from set in stone, is probably a 2-2 record over these last four games. Beating Iowa Wednesday is a must. At home, a loss to the Hawkeyes would be a bad loss, something Michigan has avoided all season. That will need to be one win.

After that, comes Sunday’s showdown at Crisler Arena with Ohio State. The Wolverines blew a 20-point lead in the first meeting, so it’s a winnable game. It would also wrap up an NCAA Tournament berth  — without a doubt.

Yet, even with a loss. A win over Penn State or Maryland, in addition to beating Iowa should be enough. Now just getting in shouldn’t be the goal. The Wolverines need to improve seeding as much as possible and I for one, would love to see them make a run at defending their Big Ten Tournament Championship.

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But in the immediate, if you are wondering what needs to happen for Michigan to feel safe, two wins sounds about right. If the Wolverines get that before the regular season ends, we can all rest easy when it’s conference tournament time.