Michigan Football: Updating expectations after non-conference play

Michigan football has looked really good at times and somewhat average at times, at least offensively. What does it mean heading into conference play?

The Michigan football team didn’t handle Air Force, like me and many other Wolverines fans expected. But so what, the Falcons are a good team and a win is a win isn’t it?

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Of course we all wanted to see Michigan football blow the doors off the Air Force. But the Falcons were a 10-win team a season ago, which means it wasn’t going to be easy. And at the end of the day, you have to give them credit for how they shortened the game.

Certainly, there is some concern about the Wolverines, particularly on the offensive side of the ball and when looking at the numbers, there is a reason to be. 1/10 in the red zone is not going to cut it. No matter how good the defense plays, that’s just too much to overcome against elite teams.

Michigan is doing a good job running the ball, with 199 yards per game, but that’s mostly been Ty Isaac, although Karan Higdon finished strong with a touchdown run against Air Force.

Wilton Speight has simply not been good enough and I only need two statistics to tell me that.

Many believe that good quarterbacks are defined by what they do on third down and in the red zone. Well, as you probably can guess, Michigan football has been a miserable failure in both areas.

Michigan Wolverines Football

The 1/10 in the red zone speaks for itself. I didn’t even look up where it ranked nationally, cause it has to be near the bottom. Yet, I didn’t realize just how bad the third-down offense was (I could guess) until I saw UM ranks 102 in the nation, which is not surprising.

Speight’s completion percentage is still just 54.7 percent. Yes, he has new receivers, but good quarterbacks make the receivers better and Speight isn’t doing that. I can remember vividly one third down in the red zone, where Tarik Black had position on a fade and Speight threw it out of bounds. Didn’t even give Black a chance to make a play on the ball. That’s a problem.

I have been a loyal Speight supporter, but am starting to wonder if Brandon Peters wouldn’t be better. I don’t think John O’Korn is anything but a backup. But really, how much worse could it be?

Hopefully, at some point, this offense will improve, until then, the defense needs to keep being great. So far, through three games, Michigan has allowed just 44 points and 14 of those came on pick 6’s (thanks Wilton). The defense has allowed basically 30 points and three touchdowns. It also is surrendering just 206 yards per game.

That, coupled with a solid run game and a mediocre offense can still win 9-10 games, maybe even make a major bowl. It can’t win a Big Ten title. Michigan might be able to beat Wisconsin playing that way, but not Penn State or Ohio State.

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There is no question, the Wolverines have one of the best defenses in the country. And because of that, they are a contender to win the Big Ten. But until the offense and Speight in particular improves, Michigan football won’t be good enough to achieve that goal.