Michigan Football Has A Very Well Balanced Schedule This Season
Michigan football certainly doesn’t have an easy schedule this season, but what team does? The best that can be said is that it’s well balanced.
When experts, or anyone else, make their case against Michigan football having a successful 2017 season, one of the factors they usually cite is a tough schedule. And credit where credit is due: It does look tough. Most every team’s schedule does.
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This is the kind of thing Phil Steele was talking about when he made his appearance on SportsCenter and said the Wolverines would have a hard time reaching their Vegas-projected nine wins because of a tough schedule (and not many returning starters). But I made my peace with Phil.
In fact, when I look at Michigan’s schedule, I don’t ignore some of the tough spots: a neutral-site game against Florida, road games against Penn State and Wisconsin, and then the finale against Ohio State. Might as well throw in a “trap game” or two against teams like Indiana, Michigan State and Minnesota.
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But for the most part, the way Michigan’s schedule is laid out actually seems favorable. The regular season gets started against the Gators, but until the trip to Penn State on Oct. 21, the Wolverines only play one team with a projected S&P+ rank of better than No. 44.
According to Bill Connely’s model, Michigan’s lowest win probability in that span is 73 percent against Indiana.
Following that trip to Happy Valley, the Wolverines are back to playing in some very winnable games against Rutgers, Minnesota and Maryland. We’ll surely talk in more detail later about the Gophers and Terrapins (maybe even those Scarlet Knights, too), but on a general note this is a very favorable three-game stretch.
The most difficult chunk of the season will obviously be the last two games against Wisconsin and Ohio State. Without the benefit of knowing how the season will unfold up to that point, if you were to tell me that Michigan is going to drop both of those, I wouldn’t have a compelling reason to doubt you.
I hate to make it simpler than it really is, but it seems as though the Wolverines are two wins against Florida and Penn State away from entering that home stretch unblemished. From there, hold your breath.
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People have their reasons to doubt this Michigan team. One I haven’t seen raised is the fact that the Wolverines have been really bad the last couple seasons at holding onto late leads. But to cite a “tough schedule” is at once lazy and shortsighted.