Michigan Basketball: Predicting decisions of Moe Wagner and D.J. Wilson
By the time Thursday rolls around, the Michigan basketball team will know one way or another, if it will have Moe Wagner and D.J. Wilson next season.
It seems incredibly random, but the fate of the 2017-18 Michigan basketball season might be decided this week by the twitter accounts of Moe Wagner and D.J. Wilson.
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When the two players announced their intent to enter their names into the 2017 NBA draft, twitter was the avenue for their announcement. When they decide Thursday whether to stay in the draft or go (since they didn’t hire an agent), they will likely make it known the same way.
If both stay, Michigan basketball looks downright formidable. The Wolverines have Charles Matthews to help replace Zak Irvin and Jaaron Simmons to play the role vacated by Derrick Walton Jr.
Add to that a promising class of incoming freshman and the continued development of players like Duncan Robinson, Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman and Xavier Simpson, the depth and talent of the roster would be impressive.
It probably wouldn’t be quite as good as the 2012-13 team, which lost in the National Championship game, but it could be close.
Wagner and Wilson are obviously both NBA level players and could be lottery picks a year from now. Simmons could be an NBA player too, likely a second rounder, but he just withdrew his name from the draft.
MAAR and Robinson add experience, scoring, perimeter shooting and ball handling. Simmons also gives them a point guard good enough to run the show and score. Meanwhile, Wilson and Wagner give UM the presence inside that some of Michigan’s other teams have lacked.
To state the obvious, this might all be a mute point. If both players leave, Michigan should still be a solid team, it probably even has a chance to make the NCAA tournament, but it won’t have nearly the same potential.
Days away, it’s hard to say what they will do. I have speculated all along that Wilson would leave and Wagner would stay. But in recent weeks, Wilson’s stock seems to have dipped a little.
The athletic forward still seems like a good bet for the first round, it only takes one team after all, but it’s hard to say it’s a sure thing, unless he has some sort of promise, which is always a possibility, particularly with a player of his potential.
Wagner is a similar story. He’s a skilled shooter, rebounder and excels in the pick-and-roll. The game against Louisville (26 points, 11-14 FG) really put him on the map. There just aren’t many 6-10 players who possess the type of skills Moe does.
It might not be out of line to call him a poor man’s Dirk Nowitzki. The German national is getting pretty adept at the fade-away jumper, an old Nowitzki favorite. His 3-point shooting (39 percent) is also on the money.
Yet, even Wagner has always been viewed as a late first-round pick. So it’s hard to project where he’s going to end up.
For some time I have thought one would stay and one would go. I think Wilson is thinking harder and both are using every second of their time. It seems like a tough call and the more difficult it becomes, the better it is for Michigan.
If the waters get murkier, it’s possible both return. They can return to a really good team and also make themselves sure-fire lottery picks.
My final prediction though is that Wagner comes back and Wilson stays in the draft. If it happens that way, it won’t be the best outcome for Michigan basketball.
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But it won’t be the worst either.