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Michigan Basketball: Rutgers, Purdue Offer Wolverines Opportunity to Lock up NCAA Bid

By Chris Peterson

Jan 29, 2017; East Lansing, MI, USA; Michigan Wolverines forward D.J. Wilson (5) drives the baseline against Michigan State Spartans guard Miles Bridges (22) during the first half of a game at the Jack Breslin Student Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 29, 2017; East Lansing, MI, USA; Michigan Wolverines forward D.J. Wilson (5) drives the baseline against Michigan State Spartans guard Miles Bridges (22) during the first half of a game at the Jack Breslin Student Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports /
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Michigan basketball has nearly played its way off the NCAA tournament bubble and with two wins this week, the Wolverines could be off for good.

It may seem hard to believe, but Michigan basketball is closer to locking up an NCAA tournament berth than you might think.

Related Story: Michigan basketball still in tournament mix

At 17-10 overall and 7-7 in the Big Ten conference, Michigan basketball is currently a No. 9 seed according to projections by ESPN’s Joe Lunardi and Jerry Palm of CBS Sports.

A nine seed is nothing to be complacent about and it’s certainly doesn’t mean the Wolverines are safe. Palm for instance, lists Michigan basketball as a bubble team, so there is work to do.

But with wins this week at Rutgers and home against Purdue, Michigan can go a long way towards ending its stay on the bubble for good.

Despite losing in overtime to Minnesota (22 RPI), Michigan basically stayed in the same position.

The Wolverines didn’t really get a moral victory, but after beating Wisconsin, Michigan State, Indiana (twice) and nearly Minnesota, it’s safe to assume UM has passed the eye test.

There’s a reason why the Wolverines rank 27th according to the KenPom rankings, which puts them third among Big Ten teams.

So Michigan has the eye test covered. But the resume isn’t bad either. It includes quality wins, good losses and challenges everywhere. Probably why it ranks No. 38 overall in college hoops.

In terms of quality wins, Michigan basketball owns two over the RPI top 25, three over the top 50 and nine against the top 100.

Here’s a repeat of one of them:

UM also doesn’t have a terrible loss, with nine of its 10 defeats coming to teams ranked 78 or higher. Only its double overtime loss to Iowa (114) stands out and even that’s not horrible.

For some time, it has appeared that nine or 10 wins in Big Ten play would get Michigan to a fairly safe position. In my option, nine conference wins probably does the trick.

A 9-9 record might mean needing at least one win at the Big Ten tournament, which is a frightening proposition. But two wins this week, will make that much less likely.

(This win over Wisconsin certainly helps)

For one, a win at Rutgers would give Michigan a road win. Something UM has just one of right now. So for that sake alone, Wednesday’s game would be a big win. Yet, a loss to Rutgers would also count as a bad loss.

The Scarlet Knights RPI is currently 144, by far the worst in the Big Ten. Simply put, it’s a game Michigan can’t afford to lose.

A win over Rutgers itself isn’t impressive. But if Michigan can follow it up with a home win against Purdue on senior day, suddenly UM has won four of five against the top 50. At that point, the resume should be strong enough. At least for the first four.

Wins over SMU, Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State, as well as others over Marquette, Nebraska, Illinois and Indiana (twice), should be enough to get Michigan into the dance.

One win after that may be required, simply cause losing three straight before selection Sunday never looks good. But as long as Michigan avoids catastrophe, two more wore wins could get the Wolverines into the dance.

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And those wins, could come as early as this week.

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