Michigan Football Has Clear Advantage When Florida State Has The Ball
Throughout the entire 2016 season, Michigan football has had the advantage when it’s on defense. That’s not changing against Florida State in the Orange Bowl.
It’s been an incredibly impressive 2016 season for the Michigan football defense. By some advanced metrics, it’s the best in college football.
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The Wolverines’ defensive S&P+ rating this season is a staggering 5.1. The only team close to that is Alabama at 7.5. The next closest then is Ohio State at 13.1.
Michigan hasn’t allowed more than 30 points in a game this season. Only three teams we able to do better than 20 (Colorado, Michigan State, Ohio State). It’s simply been an incredible run by the Wolverines’ defense; they’ve had the advantage in every matchup this season.
And that’s going to be true once again against Florida State in the Orange Bowl on Dec. 30 (8 p.m. EST, ESPN).
Bill Connelly’s statistical preview of the game breaks this down in a pretty simple way:
| Florida State Offense | Michigan Defense | |||
| Avg. | Rank | Avg. | Rank | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 117.4 | 15 | 148.7 | 2 |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 51.0 | 27 | 34.2 | 2 |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.24 | 22 | 1.21 | 7 |
| Standard Downs Line Yards Per Carry | 3.07 | 59 | 2.17 | 2 |
| Standard Downs Sack Rate | 5.9% | 92 | 11.5% | 1 |
Michigan has the advantage is all these areas. What’s more, the Wolverines are giving up 0.97 points per possession. That’s second only to Alabama’s 0.89 points per possession.
This isn’t to sell short Florida State’s ability to move the football, especially on the ground with Dalvin Cook, a first-team AP All-American. But Michigan simply hasn’t yielded much of note to anyone this season, running back or not.
Florida State’s rushing S&P+ ranking is No. 6. Michigan’s rushing defense S&P+ ranking is No. 3. It’s going to be a very strong collision up front.
The only quarterback who’s come close to breaking through Michigan’s secondary was Colorado’s Sefo Liufau, and he only played a little more than the first half against the Wolverines in a game that started off looking like an upset in the making.
The Seminoles’ passing S&P+ ranking is No. 21, which is certainly respectable, but probably not enough to warrant nervous sweats.
Redshirt freshman quarterback Deondre Francois has looked fine in his first season under center, throwing for 3,128 yards, 18 touchdown and 6 interceptions, but the Seminoles will surely rely on their veteran running back to try to find success against Michigan’s defense.
The final stats to make note of are how each offense and defense performs from one quarter to the next. It’s no secret that Michigan’s offense plays its worst in the fourth quarter, but that might not be a huge issue against Florida State’s defense, which doesn’t do very well itself late in games.
Michigan’s fourth quarter offensive S&P+ rating of 109.9 ranks No. 33. (For comparison, the Wolverines’ average rating through the first three quarters is 128.8 with an average ranking of No. 12.) Florida State actually plays its worst defense in the second quarter (S&P+ 103.8, No. 52), but its fourth quarter performance isn’t far behind (S&P+ 104.2, No. 49).
Watching the Wolverines’ offense come close to a complete stop late in games has been painful at times this season (see: Michigan State, Iowa, Ohio State). It’ll be interesting to see what it looks like against the Seminoles.
(By the way, Michigan’s second quarter offense is almost its best, while Florida State plays its worst defense in the same quarter.)
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Michigan has had a perpetual advantage on defense this season, and if the numbers don’t lie, there’s no reason that advantage is going to disappear against Florida State in the Orange Bowl.