Michigan Football 2016: The Bigotry of High Expectations
Why the Michigan football team might not be able to deliver on the high expectations that have been bestowed upon it.
Gerry DiNardo, analyst for BTN and former coach, made a salient point during the channel’s Big Ten Media Days coverage that relates directly to Michigan football.
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To paraphrase, he said that it is one thing for a program to take the step of beating the team’s they probably should have beaten even in the down years. It is another step, of at least equal magnitude, for the program to beat the elite teams in the conference.
Some scoffed at Harbaugh mania as it swept the Michigan football program last year, others rightfully felt confident that it was a new era. Taking the team from 5-7; penalty, turnover, and negative yardage prone to 10-3 and a commanding bowl victory over the SEC on New Year’s Day has everyone on the bandwagon for this year.
That clouds judgement about the certainty that the Wolverines are ready to contend for a national title this year.
The ceiling for Michigan football in 2016, is rightfully thought to be 11-1 with conventional wisdom being that one of the three late season road games at New Year’s Six bowl teams from a year ago will trip up Michigan. There has been less consideration of the floor of this year’s squad. It is a floor that will be disappointing to expectations if it plays out over the next three months.
Of greatest concern among national media is the quarterback position, but that is a fear that is most likely overblown.
Jake Rudock was not expected to be anything more than serviceable. His status as a transfer kept him out of practice until camp began in August and he put together a senior year that rightfully earned him a NFL draft pick.
Rudock, in three months, transformed into an elite player. Wilton Speight and John O’Korn have a year under Harbaugh’s system and natural talent that is equal to or above that of Rudock. Michigan has a receiving corps that is solid from the sidelines in. Quarterback play will not be the concern for this team. The concern is the running game. It was too often absent last year, especially during conference play. Beginning with Michigan State on October 17th, only the Rutgers game saw Michigan rush for more than their season average.
In those games Michigan was a pedestrian 4-2. Sure the ending of the Spartan game rankles, but it is offset by a Minnesota game that should have been lost if not for terrible clock management from an interim head coach and a squeaker in Bloomington that Michigan pulled out in two overtimes over Indiana.
From that group Michigan’s schedule this year substitutes Minnesota for Iowa, most likely a tougher draw considering the Hawkeyes return a stout defense and the potentially excellent CJ Beathard.
If Michigan runs for roughly 100 yards on average against Penn State, Michigan State, Iowa, Indiana, and Ohio State this year, 4-2 is a fair benchmark for what could happen in 2016.
Is it a foregone conclusion that Michigan will be unable to run the ball? Of course not but four years of middling to bad O-Line play is more important than having four returning starters.
Talent is still a cap on overall performance, no matter the quality of the coaching or the work put in. Until the offensive line of Michigan football proves that it can run on a weekly basis, it should be assumed it can’t.
In my preview of The O-Line, I showed how Michigan backs contributed to the quality rushing performance against Florida in the Citrus Bowl.
De’Veon Smith is a tough runner and can run through tackles. With five weeks’ rest, he was dynamite in that respect versus the Gators. Sione Houma had a short yardage run which got a first down out of an unblocked interior Florida lineman. These runs were tougher to come by during the grind of the regular season and saving the toughest stretch of football for last makes it hard to believe that Smith will consistently make unblocked Hawkeyes or Spartans miss on five days’ rest.
More rotation of Big Ten West opponents brings Wisconsin into the Big House in week five. Wisconsin sported the nation’s best defense last season and will have a linebacking corps that includes the likes of Vince Biegel, Cichy, and TJ Watt (yes, the little brother of JJ).
It is a defense that gave up just 95 rushing yards a game last year. With LSU in week one and MSU in week four, they will have seen the nation’s toughest schedule when they come to Ann Arbor. That could mean they are worn out, but it may be a case where they are playing quality ball against a Michigan football team that cruised through a JV non-conference schedule.
Besides personnel and matchups, DiNardo’s point highlights a common occurrence in many aspects of life. In mathematical principles, Fibonnaci sequences date back to the Middle Ages. The ratio in the sequences shows up not just in a classroom but engineering and Wall Street. It is common for a stock to retrace a portion of its gains it has made in a manner predicted by Fibonnaci.
In finance it is known as retracement where gains are consolidated and it happens in athletics more often than not. Sports teams that make a jump in a season often take a step back the next. Michigan did it after the 2011 season just as an example. Some will blame Hoke for it but that wouldn’t explain Michigan State from the same time period.
The Spartans won their first bowl game in a decade New Year’s Day 2012 but Dantonio’s team went just 7-6 in 2012 before breaking through to the Rose Bowl and Cotton Bowl afterwards. In baseball, a Michigan example is the Tigers after 2006. Their World Series appearance was followed by a years of consolidation before winning four straight division titles.
The Tampa Bay Rays are another example reaching the World Series in 2008. In ’09 their win total fell to 84 before making the playoffs three of the next four seasons. Not every team or every sport shows similar behavior but it is more common than not.
If Michigan football consolidates the improvements of last year before breaking into the top tier in the sport it will feel like a disappointment.
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There is the case for 9-3. If you are booking a flight to Atlanta for the Peach Bowl or Phoenix for the Fiesta Bowl, a good season can turn into a frustrating year due to the weight of expectations.