Michigan Basketball vs. Notre Dame: Why Wolverines Have Hope

Michigan basketball on paper is going to struggle to keep up with Notre Dame, but the Wolverines have two areas where they can make a big difference.

With the NCAA Tournament comes the ever-tiring “anything can happen” cliche we love to roll out, but Michigan basketball will have more than conventional wisdom on its side when the Wolverines play Notre Dame tonight in the Round of 64.

Comparing the advanced statistics of Michigan’s and Notre Dame’s offenses seems to show the Irish pack a little more of a punch.

Here’s what I’m talking about:

The two major differences between Michigan and Notre Dame on offense are: 1) The Irish rebound eight percent more of their missed shots than the Wolverines, and 2) Michigan is much more reliant on the 3-point shot, even though both teams are shooting pretty well from behind the arc.

You’ll notice that Notre Dame gets about a five-point nod in adjusted efficiency (points per 100 possessions), but it’s a safe bet that Michigan would be right up there with the Irish with similar offensive rebounding numbers.

But back to the discrepancies.

Notre Dame has been pretty good at getting itself extra opportunities by aggressively hitting the offensive glass. Senior big man Zach Auguste ranked No. 6 in the ACC by rebounding 13.6 percent of his team’s misses while he was on the floor, and sophomore forward Bonzie Colson ranked No. 9 at 12.4 percent.

Highlights: Michigan knocks off Tulsa in First Four

When we talk about the Wolverines and all their shortcomings, we automatically mention rebounding. But why?

On the season Michigan has only allowed opponents to rebound 26.4 percent of their misses; that’s good for No. 45 nationally. It only got better in the Big Ten as the Wolverines cut that number to 24.4 percent. The only team in the conference that did better on the defensive glass than Michigan was Purdue, a team that features two 7-footers.

There are certainly teams (like the Boilermakers) that can have their way on the boards with Michigan, but the Wolverines have been a pretty good defensive rebounding team for the most part this season.

There are always going to be fans think Michigan is way too reliant on the 3-point shot, but that’s just how it is, and it’s not going to change.

One thing that may seriously haunt Notre Dame in this game is how poorly it’s defended on the perimeter this season. Opponents are connecting on 37.6 percent of their shots from behind the arc. The only ACC teams to surrender a better shooting percentage from 3 were Pittsburgh and Boston College.

This is obviously where Michigan could really do itself a big favor. Neither defense is adequately equipped to deal with the other offense, but while the Wolverines defend poorly in the paint, Notre Dame defends poorly from deep.

None of that will matter, though, if Michigan doesn’t have good performances from its shooters like Zak Irvin and Duncan Robinson. There’s no doubt that the opportunity is there; the Wolverines taking advantage is a different conversation.

KenPom gives Michigan a 46 percent chance to pull off the upset and predicts a final score of 72-71 in Notre Dame’s favor. The spread in Vegas favors the Irish by 1.5 points.

More wolverines: Excuses to stay home for the tourney

It might be easy to look at the numbers and wonder how Michigan is going to counter Notre Dame’s offense, but this isn’t nearly as daunting as it looks at first sight. If the Wolverines secure the defensive glass and are hitting from 3-point range, they’re right in it.

Home/Michigan Basketball