Michigan Basketball: NCAA Tournament Outlook
Michigan basketball has at times played like an NCAA Tournament team this season. Other times, it hasn’t. What do the Wolverines need to do to make it?
Looking back at just before Caris LeVert hit the deck against Illinois and injured his lower left leg, and then when the Michigan Wolverines started off 7-2 in the Big Ten, there’s no doubt we were looking at an NCAA Tournament team.
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But now that we’re getting into the late days of February and Michigan hasn’t played well in back-to-back games for a while, what used to look like a sure thing isn’t so secure anymore.
Michigan needed a win on Saturday against Maryland to get over the hump; with an upset on the road, the Wolverines would have needed only to finish the season as at least an average team. But with consecutive losses to the Terrapins and Ohio State—and with Wisconsin and Iowa still on the schedule—Michigan is going to have to do something impressive down the stretch.
Whether that’s beating either the Badgers or Hawkwyes (along with beating Northwestern), or it’s making a run in the Big Ten Tournament, Michigan has narrowed its options late in the season.
What everyone would obviously like to see is three straight wins to finish the regular season and then a quality showing in the conference tournament. And—I can’t believe I’m saying this—given how the Wolverines can seemingly find magic out of nowhere, I’m not going to discount something like that happening. For practical purposes, though, let’s pretend Michigan doesn’t catch fire.
In that case, the Wolverines are limited in what they can do to ensure themselves a spot in the tournament, and that’s if the selection committee is willing to put weight on the most recent performances.
This is what needs to happen in order for Michigan to make it to the dance.
1. Beat Northwestern
Northwestern is Michigan’s easiest remaining game on the schedule. The Wildcats likely will be outside the RPI top 100 come Wednesday, which means there’s really nothing for Michigan to gain with a win. Instead, a loss would be utterly destructive.
All but one of Michigan’s losses have come to teams within the RPI top 50, which is good news for the Wolverines’ resume, but once again it reinforces the importance of not dropping this game to Northwestern. If that does indeed happen, Michigan might need wins against Iowa AND Wisconsin, and that’s just probably not going to happen.
2. Beat Wisconsin OR Iowa
If Michigan beats Northwestern, it’s not a matter of beating both the Badgers and Hawkeyes—you just have to beat one of them. Now, preferably, it would be Iowa because of the tremendous season it’s had, but Wisconsin has been hot late, winning seven of its last eight. Michigan would obviously love a win in either case. Both teams are currently inside the RPI top 50 (a category in which Michigan has a 3-7 record). Beating one of them would have me feeling pretty confident about the Wolverines’ chances on Selection Sunday.
3. Don’t flop in the Big Ten Tournament
Like I just said, I’m feeling pretty good about Michigan’s chances if it beats Northwestern and Wisconsin/Iowa, but that wouldn’t necessarily mean the Wolverines are invincible. An incredible flop in the Big Ten Tournament could be very harmful, and this has more to do with other bubble teams getting the opportunity to one-up the Wolverines. We see it every year: bubble teams are built up and torn down in their conference tournaments. As long as Michigan doesn’t flop, though, all should be fine.
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That’s Michigan’s path to the NCAA Tournament. It’s not an easy one, but at this point we can be grateful that we’re not yet in the position of having to be concerned with what other bubble teams are doing. Michigan still controls its destiny, even if it won’t be an easy one to fulfill.