Michigan Basketball: The Beauty of Duncan Robinson
Michigan basketball has greatly benefited from the shooting of Duncan Robinson, but he offers even more than what meets the eye.
It’s rumored that Duncan Robinson is the first college basketball player to jump from Division III to Division I and earn a scholarship. And after watching him for about five minutes of game time, you don’t wonder why.
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Glen Rice in the 1988-89 season knocked down 51.6 percent of his 3-point attempts. It’s impressive, but it’s being blown away currently by Robinson’s 55.7 percent mark.
Robinson is averaging 12.1 points per game, which leads the way with Caris LeVert still out. He’s taken 106 shots from behind the arc. To put that in perspective, Zak Irvin is No. 2 in that category, and he’s taken 66. LeVert and Derrick Walton Jr. have combine to hit 56 3’s this season; Robinson has hit 59 by himself.
As deadly accurate as Robinson is, his numbers inflate even more when you look only at his game in transition. He’s scored 56 points in 29 transition possessions. That’s 1.9 points per possession. His affective field goal percentage in those situations is 103.8.
One thing some people are starting to point out is the fact that most of Robinson’s production is coming in the first half of games. Robinson has taken 64 shots in the first half this season and only 41 in the second half. He’s also slightly less effective after the break, shooting 58 percent in the first half and 54 in the second. What’s more, his 3-point attempts drop 50 percent in the second half.
It’s tempting to say this is a clear fault in Robinson’s game, but it’s not that easy.
Teams usually start off guarding Robinson like they would anyone else. Then he hits a few easy 3’s and they see they’ll have to do something different with him. Give credit to these teams for making the right adjustments to make sure Robinson isn’t getting as many good looks.
Defenses do this by essentially face-guarding him with their best defender—or at least one of their best defenders.. What that essentially does though is create a four-on-four game in which a good defender is glued to Robinson.
That means Michigan is then able to use its athleticism to drive much more effectively. Dylan Burkhardt of UMHoops.com wisely points to the Maryland game as a perfect example of how the Wolverines benefit from teams limiting Robinson.
In the first half of Michigan’s 70-67 upset over the Terrapins, the Wolverines took two shots at the rim. One of those “attempts” was a tip-in at the buzzer. But in the second half, after Maryland dedicated Jared Nickons to limiting Robinson, Michigan got 10 shots at the rim and made seven of them.
That’s exactly how Michigan was able to pull off the win despite not continuing to shoot the lights out in the second half.
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Without Robinson, the Wolverines are much easier to guard. With him, defenses have to account for one of the best shooters in the country while also worrying about the other weapons Michigan has to offer.