The first week of college football is already in the books. Week 1 is a hard time to really gain much insight for projecting how a team will do in the future, due to the nature of much of the competition, but that doesn’t mean we can’t try to gather as much knowledge as possible on Michigan football‘s past and future opponents.
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On a national scale, Michigan’s stock has either fallen or remained the same after their loss to the Utah Utes. After receiving a couple of votes in the preseason AP poll, the Wolverines understandably received no votes for Week 2. Meanwhile, the Utes have gone from unranked in both the Coaches and AP polls to No. 24 and No. 25, respectively.
As for the Big Ten, the Wolverines were one of only two teams in the East Division to record a loss in Week 1. They join Penn State at the bottom of the division.
Obviously, this is only the start of the season and early-season standing don’t mean much. The Wolverines might be at the bottom of the heap now, but it’s easy to see them rising in a few weeks and finishing the season in the middle of the pack.
Michigan should be favored to win its next three games as it has a home stretch against non-conference opponents. Oregon State beat Weber State last week, but the Wolverines will be much bigger competition for the Beavers. The first home crowd of Jim Harbaugh’s tenure as head coach should also greatly benefit Michigan’s chances.
The UNLV Rebels come to the Big House on Sept. 19 and should be one of the easier games on the schedule. If the Wolverines drop a game to the Rebels at home, there will be great cause for concern. BYU will be the biggest threat during this stand, as the Cougars come off an exciting Hail Mary win against Nebraska. Unfortunately for the Cougars, they were plagued by injuries in the victory, including starting nose tackle Travis Tuiloma and star quarterback Taysom Hill, who’s lost for the season.
Once Big Ten play hits, the Wolverines’ schedule is a little more unsure. Michigan heads to Maryland to open up conference play. The Terrapins are a team that was solid last year, but have to replace many of their starters in 2015. An away win might not come easily, but it wouldn’t be shocking. Northwestern will be in Ann Arbor the following week. They defeated No. 21 Stanford this past weekend, but the game in general was ugly and Stanford was likely at least a little overrated coming into the season. The Wildcats should remain a beatable team in Week 6.
Minnesota will be a tough matchup for Michigan. The Golden Gophers were competitive with playoff-favorites TCU in their home opener this past weekend. The Gophers will likely be contenders for the West Division. The Little Brown Jug hasn’t been won by Minnesota in consecutive years since the 1960s, but it’s not hard to see them holding onto the trophy for another year.
The Wolverines should be favored in their next three games. Rutgers beat Michigan and finished 8-5 in 2014, but were only 3-5 in conference play and benefited from wins over teams like Washington State, Howard and Tulane. A home crowd at Michigan Stadium should hopefully get a win back after last year’s embarrassment. Michigan then goes on the road against Indiana and Penn State near the end of the season. If the Wolverines win any games on the road this year, it will probably be these two.
Michigan Wolverines
Michigan beat Indiana in last year’s abysmal season and the Hoosiers don’t seem to have gotten much better since then, barely holding onto a win against Southern Illinois in Week 1. Penn State lost 27-10 to Temple, in a game where the Nittany Lions’ offensive line allowed Christian Hackenberg to become a ragdoll for Temple’s front seven. Michigan’s defensive line was one of the biggest highlights of the Utah game, and they should have a field day if Penn State can’t improve their pass protection.
The two biggest challenges facing Michigan are the team’s two biggest rivals: Michigan State and Ohio State. Michigan State is the No. 5-ranked team and should remain ranked highly throughout the season even if they give up a loss to Oregon. The Spartans’ defense might not be the “no fly zone” that it was in years past, but it is in no way a liability at the moment. A very solid offense led by one of the conference’s best quarterbacks and a great offensive line can more than make up for any questions on the other side of the ball. This team could easily go 9-2 in the regular season.
Michigan State might be a scary team to face, but there’s nobody scarier in college football right now than Ohio State. The reigning FBS champions return much of their team from last year. They have been unanimously ranked No. 1 in the nation by the AP for the first two weeks of the season. They made easy work of the Virginia Tech Hokies in their first game of the year. The Buckeyes might have the best three quarterbacks in the entire conference on their team. They might have the best coach in all of college football. There will be some who say Ohio State is overrated because of its weak schedule, but it proved those doubters wrong last year while dominating the College Football Playoffs.
It hurts to see Michigan’s biggest rivals so successful while the Wolverines have struggled heavily in the past few years, but it’s the truth. I can’t see Ohio State losing many games, if they lose at all.
The Wolverines do have one advantage against those top two teams in that both games will be at the Big House. Unfortunately there’s only so much home field advantage can do for a team, and it’s hard to see Michigan favored in either situation. If the team improves over the course of the season, they still could beat either team. Even at the team’s worst under Brady Hoke they were able to be competitive against Ohio State, so Michigan could pull an upset win or two with Harbaugh at the helm.
Despite the Week 1 loss, Michigan still has a good chance to have a solid season. A record of 8-4 seems like a good projection for the team right now, with losses likely coming from Utah, Michigan State, Minnesota and Ohio State. If the team gives up another loss and goes 7-5, it will still be a respectable year one for the new coaching staff.