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Michigan Football: Predict with Caution

By Eroc Wolverine

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It had to happen; it happens everywhere a coaching change occurs. What is “it”? It’s the bloated question of how many games Michigan football will win this season.

Talking heads will over-analyze the quest and offer numerous predictions, sometimes with convenient revision (that’s fine; a guess is a guess), and offer only raw generalizations to back up a conclusion that probably already has two or three attached caveats or what-ifs.

You, the readers, may have better predictive accuracy than the anointed ones.

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The what-ifs are necessary in the art of predicting since higher-level football success is linked to multiple variables, which are most accurately predicted when control is established and lack of fluidity is present. But that’s very wishful thinking. Even with masterful planning and expert effort to establish control, things happen: an injury, a player that showed promise in practice but does not pan out in game circumstances, etc. The best safeguards a program can have to minimize the effect of variables are supreme program management and better overall talent than opponents.

There is for many a propensity to shrink the value of a program into a simple win to loss ratio. This is a chancy little venture since obstacles from pinholes to blowouts are more common than not along a team’s path over time. And of course wins alone aren’t the only criteria for gauging a program’s success.

This propensity for prediction usually goes through a series of stages, the first being raw (obvious and easy to assess) expectations. Coaches and players also have this propensity. Every organization creates simple team goals. When these goals are raised far above what has been the previous norm, coaches must start the process as a salesman. Then, the long, grueling work begins to transform statements into reality.

Michigan Wolverines
Michigan Wolverines /

Michigan Wolverines

These internal team expectations become those that matter the most. But there are also the public bravado/doom statements/predictions/analysis by the media. Media falls into two camps: trained announcers/entertainers and past players/coaches.

Forecasting is an imperfect venture, even for the past player/coach types. There are simply too many variables, many attributed to opponents where there is minimal control. So the safe bet is to lay middle ground in any prediction, somewhat like government weather forecasters do.

Jim Harbaugh will lay out time-tested, simple statements about expectations, such as team goals, the Big Ten Championship as an ultimate goal, and provide moderate information on the state of the team. Harbaugh knows he is in a situation where his conference division now has two top-five national teams, Ohio State and Michigan State. Stated objectives are a philosophical, formist start, but mere statements won’t win football games, especially against those two stalwarts.

Harbaugh has not publicly reinforced the new expectations muttered by some zealous fans, namely that Michigan must almost immediately play for a national title. It took three tough years at Stanford to raise his program to an elite level. The reality is there are steps up the ladder and Michigan cannot simply levitate past Ohio State.

Michigan State is a severe, secondary step up the ladder. The Spartans program showed patience in producing effective, physical line play and has secured enough difference makers at skill positions to cause the Spartans to ascend their own ladder. Other players have simply been successfully developed.

It may be premature to label Harbaugh as the anti-five-year plan coach. He simply has implied that if a fifth-year candidate cannot clearly contribute, the extra year may not be available.

So, predicting the 2015 results for Michigan becomes problematic. The new staff is clearly competent and has plenty of professional experience. Do not discount this, as professional coaches have more time to theorize and scheme. They are also the world’s best copycats in scheme.

Coach Durkin is a prototypical college coach, so his system will be based on his own experiences and preferences. However, much of the staff has clearly indicated in statements a contextualist view. They have no fear of bending a program’s schemes to match the talent.

Newness is a variable that hinders prediction; competence does not hinder predicting to the positive.

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    • Skilled players should always be highly scrutinized when attempting to appraise a team’s potential. Michigan has not one recognized skilled player that has produced big numbers on the roster. There are possibilities, but the smart choice is that Michigan will most likely not ride one horse. Clearly, Coach Drevno wants the classic 50-50 antifreeze mix between run and pass.

    The Michigan pass offense has been hampered by not being effective either horizontally or vertically. Some have blamed team speed, but quarterback accuracy and game management have been contributing factors.

    Michigan’s offense is similar to a shelf held up by several pegs. Removing even one peg unhinges the entire effort. So predicting Michigan’s success becomes a secondary prediction of the progress of all the pegs. There is talent, but much of the base is untested or unproven.

    The defense has better athletes and far more proven experience. The warts from the last few years, pass rushing and deep coverage inabilities, must be removed. Putting Peppers at the strong position will help, but Michigan needs to find more guys in the secondary to get it done. The pass rush must obviously improve and this will be a coordinated effort between Durkin and Greg Mattison.

    The special teams should improve. There is a dedicated special teams coach with proven results and Michigan has enough talent to field good units. Two punters should provide at least an average punt game.

    Coaches cringe and predictors should beware when a team is breaking in a new field goal kicker. True freshmen kickers are to be a determined factor. For years Michigan’s max range was less than 50 yards. Last year, this range extended slightly out. Andrew David can hit kicks past 50 yards.

    Michigan can hopefully put aside a long-dormant return game, through more explosive returners and some actual blocking ahead of the catch. The coverage teams remain just average at best, and there is no doubt the new staff is aware of the potential to make special teams actually be special.

    There are many factors in place this year that imply improvement. The schedule is very difficult and the task is daunting. Plenty of time will be given to the task of team improvement. There will be adversity, and how this team handles the tough times this year will be a sign of things to come.

    Next: 2016 ATH could play both ways for Wolverines

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