Michigan Hockey: Michigan vs. Michigan State Preview

Posted at 6:30pm — 3/13/2015

Michigan Wolverine Hockey: Michigan vs. Michigan State Preview

Michigan Hockey Fails Road Challenge; MSU Stands In The Way Of B1G 10 Regular Season Title

What: #19 Michigan (19-13-0) (11-7-0) vs. Michigan State (16-14-2) (10-6-2-2)
Fri 3/13 7:00 p.m. Munn Arena, East Lansing; Sat 3/14 5:00 p.m. Yost Arena
TV/Radio: Friday/Saturday: FSD – STO / WTKA 1050 a.m. with Al Randall & Bill Trainor. www.mgoblue.com

Rewinding Last Week’s Action:

The Wolverines traveled to Hockey Valley last Friday to finish up the season series with Penn State. They entered play tied for first place with Minnesota and needed at least one win (or more) to not only keep pace in the conference, but more importantly, to keep any NCAA at-large bid viable. The worst possible scenario took place, as Michigan dropped both games Friday (6-4) and Saturday (4-3) to virtually end any chance of an at-large berth in two weeks. There wasn’t much good to take out of the series: the goaltending was poor as was any semblance of defensive coverage.

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Now, Hockey Valley has become a difficult place to play with a student fan base that fills the entire sections behind the opposing netminder for two periods. Still, you would expect a more urgent weekend by the Maize & Blue. Penn State is a solid program, but played without its top center (Holstrom) and dominated both games from the beginning. JT Compher was a bright spot, scoring four times over the weekend including a hat trick in the Saturday affair. Michigan was down 3-0 in the opener before making a run at the Lions, but it was too late. In the second game, the Lions also jumped out on top but let the Wolverines hang around. The turning point in the game was not one, but two premature whistles that negated good Michigan goals. The second one prevented a tie game at 2-2 in the second period.

Seconds later PSU scored and then added a late period goal to pretty much end things. It is sad to harp on how bad the B1G Ten officiating was over the weekend- but it hardly mattered with the consistently deplorable team defense and goaltending that Michigan has exhibited on the road all season. Their ten road losses will no doubt be one of the reasons that they will not make the NCAA playoffs. It is more the symptom than the root cause, though. Michigan will finish up their season this weekend with a home and home series against the… ahem… first place MSU Spartans. I say that will reservation considering there should be an asterisk on the B1G ten Regular Season Championship banner- no matter what program hoists it next Fall. The B1G Ten is terrible this season-probably the second worst league in the NCAA’s- and the logjam at the top of the standings is a testimony to it.

Profiling The Spartans:

Michigan State is a much improved program from the start of the year- winning nine of their past twelve league games that has propelled them into a false sense of actually being competitive with the rest of the country. They are two games above .500 and stand to wrestle a B1G Ten Title from both Michigan and Minnesota this weekend if they can sweep the Wolverines and have Penn State take at least one game from Minnesota in Minneapolis.

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It is not that far of a stretch that this could happen since both the Gophers and the Wolverines have done everything they could to hand it to the Spartans and/or the Nittany Lions who are in 4th place. Michigan has a 2-1 edge this season, winning at the GLI and dropping a February game at JLA to MSU. Their last meeting was outdoors in Chicago, a game that Michigan mostly dominated. The sledding will be much more difficult at Munn Arena (sans the students on break) considering U-M’s road woes. Yost arena on Saturday afternoon may propel the Wolverines a bit- last home game of the season and last home game for the seniors- but it is hard to tell considering that Michigan had as much motivation the past couple of weeks and couldn’t muster up a better effort when they had more at stake regardless of the venue. I digress, though.

MSU is locked into their system and when I say lock, I mean… “not to lose, form a wall and take advantage of their few chances” system. They rely on goaltender Jake Hildebrand (16-14-2, 2.10 GAA, .930 save %) to keep them in their games and have defensive buy-in from all five players, every shift, in front of Hildebrand. The offense has more punch at home, but seldom squeezes out more than a three goal output. Senior Matt Berry (11-16-27), sophomore Mackenzie MacEachern (11-13-24) and junior Captain Michael Ferrantino (11-11-22) lead the offense. Seven other players have chipped in with double digit points.

The defense is anchored by juniors Travis Walsh (2-12-14), Rhett Holland (1-3-4) and John Draeger (1-3-4.) State is big on the wings and on the blueline and will use that size to intimidate Michigan’s skill forwards, especially in their own confines. MSU’s goal is to at least take Friday’s game and attempt to steal the road affair at Yost. It is a safe bet that the Wolverines will put up little resistance and attempt to earn their way into the NCAA tourney by winning the B1G Ten tournament. The regular season B1G Ten title is nothing more than bragging rights at this point and an opportunity to better position some program for the B1G Ten tournament.

By The Numbers:

MSU’s statistics are the polar opposite of U-M’s. Michigan leads the NCAA in scoring (3.94 GPG) versus the Spartan’s 42nd ranked output at 2.41 GPG. Conversely, the Wolverines are 41st in defense (3.00 GPG) versus the Green & White’s 2.19 GPG (T9th.) The Maize & Blue own the 3rd best PP (24.58%) against the Spartans 17th ranked PK (86.5%.) Michigan’s PK has nominally improved (81.3%, 37th) and should be able to hold off the Spartans’ attack 17.65% PP (28th.) The Spartans have the edge in PIM’s (9.16 per game, 54/59 teams) while Michigan has suffered from ill-timed penalties in the latter half of the year (11.38 per game, 26/59 teams.)

On paper, Michigan has the offensive edge but defense wins big games and championships. Without decent goaltending to combat Hildebrand, the Wolverines will have to score early and often. Fall behind and the Spartans go into a shell and protect their lead until they can counterattack against desperate teams. I am not sold on the Spartans being a runaway favorite this weekend- nor am I suggesting that they should be a NCAA team either by winning the B1G Ten tournament next week- but both are possibilities against a more talented program that has squandered their opportunities far too much this season.

Wolverine Notes:

– Senior Zach Hyman is 5th overall in NCAA scoring (19-29-48) but has cooled off after a torrid February. Teams are being more physical with the Florida Panthers draftee and it has taken its toll late in games.

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– Freshman sensation Dylan Larkin (13-28-41) has also been bottled up, capped by his outburst in the third period last weekend which resulted in a ten minute misconduct. Captain Andrew Copp (14-15-29) has picked up his game, but is still nursing a sore shoulder. Sophomore Tyler Motte (8-20-28) has been steady offensively and could top 30 points. JT Compher is getting hot at the right time, breaking into double digit goals (11) to check in at 22 points. Thirteen Wolverines have double digit point totals with ten of them having 20 points or more.

– Zach Nagelvoort (10-8-0, 2.65 GAA, .908 save %) has not had an appearance since the Minnesota road series. Steve Racine (9-5-0, 3.19 GAA, .901 save %) is 3-3 in his last six starts and went from a completely confident, dominant netminder to one that was absolutely lost last weekend. No guess who will get the nod this weekend.

– Saturday will mark the final appearance on home ice for six seniors: (Forwards) Alternate Captain Zach Hyman and Travis Lynch, (Defensemen) Brennan Serville, Mike Chiasson and Andrew Sinelli along with (Goaltender) Luke Dwyer. Thank you, it has been a pleasure covering you- especially Zach Hyman- a true gentleman, Michigan man and scholar.

– The Big Ten tournament begins this coming week (Thursday-Saturday) at Joe Louis Arena in Detroit. The top two teams in the regular season race earn byes, while the 3 vs 6 and 4 vs 5 teams play on Thursday. Friday is the semi-finals with the 1 vs 4-5 winner and the 2 vs 3-6 winner. Saturday the tournament winner will be crowned with an autobid to the NCAA tournament. Sunday the NCAA regional pairings will be announced on ESPN2.

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Written by GBMWolverine Staff — Yostmeister

Go Blue — Wear Maize!

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