Has Brady Hoke Hit Rock Bottom at Michigan?

Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Michigan got drilled by Notre Dame. They didn’t particularly impress against a godawful Miami (Ohio) team at home. They got pantsed at a weary Big House this past week. They haven’t entered the red-zone in two of their past three games. In their past twelve games Michigan has beaten just two power conference teams– Northwestern and Indiana. They’ve lost eight of twelve. Devin Gardner is regressing, even with a new, well-regarded offensive coordinator. Brady Hoke doesn’t seem to have any answers, while Rich Rodriguez’s Arizona team is 4-0 after winning eight games each of the last two seasons. Question: has this program finally hit rock bottom?

Remember January 3rd, 2012? If you’re a Michigan fan, you probably do. The Wolverines concluded their season with an overtime win over Virginia Tech, as Hoke delivered a BCS Bowl win to Michigan in his debut season. The college football world thought Hoke and Michigan were at the beginning of something special. A “Michigan Man” was salvaging the remnants of the demoralizing Rich-Rod era. Hoke replacing Rodriguez would have been enough to please Michigan fans; winning ten games and a BCS Bowl was icing.

But then the Wolverines opened the next season with a marquee matchup with Alabama at Cowboy Stadium. And they got thumped. It was ugly and left no doubt that Michigan was still a level below the nation’s elite. Michigan dropped to eight wins that season, then just seven wins last year. If you were to set an over/under for Michigan this season, would it even be seven? Probably not. Six might be an achievement at this point.

Barring a miraculous turnaround, Hoke will have four successive seasons where Michigan regresses. He also hasn’t beaten Ohio State or won a bowl game since the 2011 season. While Rodriguez started horribly at Michigan, with a 3-9 first season, they did improve incrementally each season, winning five in 2009 and seven in 2010. Hoke has done the opposite: bringing success early, before backsliding.

While Hoke brings all of the non-gameday traits a Michigan coach needs, his actual in-game strategy, real-time decisions and his team’s lack of composure has been a constant. They are rarely the sharper looking team on the field, even though Michigan is usually more talented than their opposition. They’re perpetually out of sync on offense, with each play feeling like an isolated half-baked attempt at gaining yards, rather than part of a bigger plan. And that is with a senior at quarterback. The defense actually has been decent, with no help from their offense, but has failed to become a feared defense in the fourth season under a defensive oriented head coach. Hoke has brought in the talent, there’s more than enough to win with, he just can’t put it together on the field.

Year four shouldn’t feel like a transition season, yet it still feels like Hoke is bringing in the new. Nothing feels settled, and even worse, there’s no reason to think things will get better in the short-term or long-term. And Hoke might not even have a long-term to worry about at Michigan if things don’t get better soon.

Things are bad and it doesn’t seem like Hoke has any answers.

I would say that it is time for Michigan AD Dave Brandon to start searching for Hoke’s successor, but whether Brandon survives this dark period is a whole other question for another day.

You can follow Alex Dale on Twitter @alexdalecfb