GBMWolverine: Michigan Hockey — Michigan at Bowling Green — Season Finale — Preview

Posted at 6:00am — 2/24/2012

GBMWolverine: Michigan Hockey — Michigan at Bowling Green — Preview

#3 Michigan 20-10-4, 14-8-4-1 (2nd CCHA) vs. BGSU 9-20-5, 4-18-4 (11th CCHA)
Friday & Saturday 7:05 p.m. No television BGSU Ice Arena, Bowling Green, Ohio

Michigan prepares for their final regular season weekend series with several story-lines in play: an opportunity to tie Ferris State for the CCHA crown; A bye to the second round of the CCHA playoffs (and home ice advantage) and national tournament implications as the Wolverines are competing for a top regional seed.

Last weekend, Michigan swept NMU 4-1 and 3-2 (ot) to take six huge points to overtake WMU for 2nd place in the CCHA, six points behind Ferris State. The Bulldogs only need to secure one point this weekend to win the CCHA outright OR if Michigan fails to secure six points at BGSU. Michigan could potentially finish anywhere from 1st to 5th pending their results and those of other CCHA match-ups. A top four finish will secure a first round bye with home ice for the 2nd round, where a 5th place finish will put Michigan on the road to face the 4th place team in the 2nd round. The Wolverines only need two points to secure a top four spot.

BGSU is mired in last place and will close out their campaign hoping to play spoiler. The Falcons are 4-8-4 at home this season. They are coming off of a sweep at the hands of the Ferris Bulldogs. BGSU is winless against Michigan in their last seven meetings and have not beaten the Wolverines at home since February, 2007. Conversely, Michigan is 3-5-3 on the road this season and holds a 79-34-3 overall record over the Falcons.

Falling Falcons:

Bowling Green is not an easy team to play against in the sense that a more talented team like Michigan can’t just throw their sticks on the ice and expect to take six points. Statistically, the Falcons are over-matched being near the bottom of the rankings in most every category. The Ohioans have only tallied 56 goals this season (11th-CCHA), with 14 of those on the PP. In contrast, opponents have scored 96 goals (10th-CCHA) with 20 of those on the PP. Furthermore, the Falcons have given up a PPG in five straight games and have not scored a PPG in nine straight games (35 attempts). They are extremely young with a senior class featuring two forwards, James McIntosh (2-0-2) and Cameron Sinclair (5-4-9), as well as five juniors: forward Marc Rodriguez (2-0-2), defense-men Ryan Peltoma (0-2-2), Max Grover (0-1-1), Bobby Shea (4-4-8, 53PIM’s, -14) and goaltender Andrew Hammond (9-19-5, 2.67 GAA & .896 save %.) Hammond has two shutouts on the season in 34 games and leads all NCAA goaltenders in minutes played.

The bulk of the Falcon offense comes from the core group of 17 sophomores/freshmen that fill out the remainder of the roster. Freshman Ryan Carpenter (8-12-20) leads the team in goals and points. Fellow freshmen Adam Berkle (4-9-13, 43 PIM’s, -14) and Dan DeSalvo (4-8-12) lend offensive support. The sophomore duo of Camden Wojtala (7-11-18) and Bryce Williamson (7-5-12) round out the offense. The Falcons play a sticky, trapping style that relies on forcing turnovers to score and then focus on shutting down the opponent offense. Although their record is not imposing, they are capable of competing with most teams in the CCHA. Their highlights include road victories over Alaska, Notre Dame and WMU. Earlier this season they stymied LSSU 1-0 at home. The Falcons also tied the Buckeyes twice and Miami and WMU once each.

TALE OF THE TAPE:

The Wolverines have a distinct edge in offense (3.35 GPG, 10th) vs. the Falcons 57th ranked 1.65 GPG average. Michigan brings the 8th best defense into the match (2.21 GPG) vs. BG’s 2.82 GPG average (T32nd.) So from a 5×5 standpoint, Michigan should create more offense and shut down the Falcon’s offense. If the games become a special team’s battle, Michigan’s advantage would be marginally better.

The Wolverines take a 17.46% PP (40th) into the weekend compared to a 9.5% PP (55th) for BG. Both teams have adequate PK units, with Michigan tied for 16th overall at 83.8%. BG has a respectable 82.5% kill rate good for 25th in the nation. Both teams have also scored three shorthanded goals this season. Michigan has also killed 45 of the past 50 minor penalties they have faced, with the only blip occurring during the MSU series two weekends ago.

The bottom line is, Michigan’s offense is potent and should overcome BG’s clogging, shot blocking system. BG will have to abandon their system in some regard to push offense unless Michigan is extremely careless in their defensive zone. BG has a even chance at scoring on the PP considering 25% of the total offense is generated there, but at less than 10% conversion, that is a stretch, especially with not scoring a PPG in nine games. Michigan’s PP has been much improved in the second half of the season, but shouldn’t have to rely on it to beat the Falcons.

Last, Michigan enjoys an advantage on PIM’s- down to 33rd overall at 13.15 minutes per game vs. BG’s 16th worst 14.56 minutes per game average. The simple formula for success will be to push the offense, force penalties and limit the Falcon’s chances by limiting turnovers and by staying out of the penalty box.

Wolverine Notes:

Michigan’s offense has been very balanced in the past few weekends, as the line of AJ Treais (15-11-26, +19), Luke Glendening and Phil DeGiuseppe (9-11-20, +18) has taken the scoring reins from the top line of Guptill (15-13-28, +13) Brown (11-16-27, +12) and Wohlberg (11-16-27). Treais has been scorching hot, tallying 7 goals in his past 7 games, including the GWG in OT on Senior Night this past Saturday. Five of the six forwards (with Brown being the exception) were involved in the scoring last weekend. Defenseman Lee Moffie took over the team’s total scoring lead with a goal and a couple assists to boost his totals to 6-23-29and his +/- to +23.. Guptill is tied for sixth in NCAA scoring and leads all freshmen in that category. For their efforts Treais (CCHA Offensive Player Of The Week) and Moffie (CCHA Defensive Player Of The Week) were honored by the CCHA. Shawn Hunwick continues to lead his team every night and is a solid candidate for the Hobey Baker Award. He is Michigan’s alltime leader in save % (.927), goals against average (2.09), 4th in shutouts (9) and 8th in wins (50). Hunwick is currently 1st in CCHA wins (20), shutouts (4) and goals against average (2.05) and save % (.932). Please go to www.hobeybakeraward.com to vote for Hunwick.

Hunwick is 3-0 against BG with a 0.72 GAA and a .963 save %. Fellow teammates Brown (3-3-6, 8 games), Wohlberg (3-6-9, 9 games), Treais (2-3-5, 8 games) and Moffie (2-2-4, 4 games) lead the charge against the Falcons.

Michigan is currently on a 13-2-2 run and has launched them right back into the national picture after the disastrous 1-6-1 month from 11/3/11-12/2/11 which saw them give away 17 of 21 conference points. IF Michigan doesn’t win the CCHA regular season title, they can point to that stretch. BUT, the bigger prizes await in the next five weeks. Let’s hope the team hasn’t peaked too soon and can continue this run of excellent play.

Expectation:

Bowling Green is going to have extra incentive this weekend as they close out the regular season and send their seniors out on Saturday. (It will be their last home appearance of the season, also, as they will only appear in the CCHA playoffs on the road.) Their talent will inhibit them, but talent is often neutralized by hard work. If Michigan doesn’t outwork the Falcons and break their will, they will be in for a tougher pair of games then they should be. Michigan’s incentive is to secure home ice for the second round of the playoffs and to hold firm in the Pairwise rankings. On paper, this series is lopsided-and it still could be- but Michigan has to attack this series as if the playoffs depend on it.

Friday: Michigan 3-2 Saturday: Michigan 3-0.

YostBits:

-Michigan has only allowed more than two goals in 4 of the past 17 games

-Michigan is 17-5-4 in the CCHA when scoring first

-The Wolverines have reached 20 wins for a NCAA record 25th straight season

-The Maize & Blue are currently tied for 2nd in the PWR and would be awarded a top seed in one of the four regionals. Four other CCHA teams would also qualify for the tournament including Ferris State, MSU, Miami and Ohio.

-The CCHA race comes down to last weekend as Ferris State takes on third place WMU in a home & home series. Miami and Ohio also square off in similar fashion. Notre Dame hosts MSU for a pair and LSSU travels to Marquette to take on NMU. Alaska finishes their regular season with a nonconference rivalry weekend against Alaska Anchorage.

Video Highlights:

Inside Michigan Hockey

BGSU Ice Hockey And The Media: Week 19 – Michigan

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Written by GBMWolverine Staff — YostMeister

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