GBMWolverine: Michigan Hockey -- Northern Michigan at Michigan -- Preview -- Part II

Posted at 4:00pm — 2/17/2012

GBMWolverine: Michigan Hockey — Northern Michigan at Michigan — Preview — Part II

#5 Michigan Hosts #20 NMU In Last Regular Season Home Series
#5 Michigan (18-10-4, 12-8-4-1 3rd CCHA) vs. #20 NMU (14-10-6, 9-9-6-3 t7th CCHA)
Yost Ice Arena — Ann Arbor, Michigan
Friday 2/17 at 7:35 p.m. — TV: Friday — BTN — DirecTV Channel 610.
Saturday 2/18 at 5:05 — TV: Saturday — FSD — DirecTV Channel 663. (Hockey Day in Michigan)

Tale of the Tape:

The Wolverines enter this weekend a bit bruised from a rough special team’s work over from Michigan State. The PP was not effective and the PK gave up three important MSU tallies. Ironically, it was the same formula that propelled NMU to a four point weekend in October, as they scored on 3-10 PP chances while only yielding 1-11 in the series. This will be an important factor this weekend considering the penalty filled series earlier in the season.

Overall, Michigan is the top offense in the CCHA and ranks 10th nationally at 3.34 GPG. NMU is 5th in the CCHA and a distant 34th overall at 2.80 GPG. Defensively, U-M is t2nd in the CCHA and t7th in the country at 2.25 GPG. NMU is 9th in the CCHA and t21st overall at 2.63 GPG. I expect Michigan to score some goals this weekend, depending on how large Coreau is. He is the major reason that NMU’s defensive numbers are decent. I also expect Michigan’s home ice advantage to limit NMU’s offense. Of course, it is also predicated on how well Shawn Hunwick plays.

The other reason that NMU is better defensively than they appear is because of their penalty kill. They take the most penalties in the CCHA (17.3 MPG) and are forced to kill more penalties than any other CCHA team and are the 4th worst team overall in that category at 519 total PIM’s. They are 3rd in the conference at an 85.9% kill rate, though, which is also 7th best in the nation. Michigan is holding firm at 83% which is 9th in the conference and 23rd overall (down from 15th). Conversely, NMU’s PP is 19.6%, good for 2nd in the CCHA and 24th in the nation. Michigan was stymied last weekend and dropped to 15.6%, 9th in the CCHA and 46th in the nation. Special teams appear to be advantage, NMU and should be another point for poise and discipline this weekend for the Wolverines. Considering that the two teams combined for 81 PIM’s in the Friday night melee, and a total of 114 minutes for the weekend, I doubt that either team will back down this weekend. Michigan is averaging 13.5 minutes per game in the penalty box, 30th in the country.

My suggestion for the Wolverines is to stick to 5×5 play unless gifted with the man advantage. Don’t get goaded into giving away PP chances to Northern, since their PP keeps them in games. Otherwise, I think the Wolverines have the edge this weekend, especially if they can capitalize on their PP chances.

Charting The Wolverines:

Michigan’s offense was led last weekend by AJ Treais who scored three times and led the second line against MSU. Treais netted a goal in Marquette earlier this season. The top line of Wohlberg-Brown and Guptill were quiet, though, and are looking to get back on track. Wohlberg leads the Wolverines in career points against NMU with 2-2-4 in nine games. Brown is 1-3-4 in seven games. Second liner Luke Glendening is 2-2-4 in eight games and Lindsay Sparks, who had a subpar weekend, is 2-3-5 in six games against NMU including 2-2-4 in October.

Guptill leads U-M with 14-13-27, +15. Brown follows at 11-16-27, +13 and Wohlberg is 11-15-26, +14. Lee Moffie leads the blue liners with 5-20-25, +21 and Treais is tied with Guptill in goals (14) to go with 22 points and a +17 rating.

Shawn Hunwick is 18-9-3 with a 2.08 GAA and a .931 save %.

Expectation:
Northern has never been intimidated coming into Yost arena, and will probably try the same physical strategy that was successful in Marquette. The difference is, their overaggressive style doesn’t play as well on the road as it does at home. Officiating plays some role in that, but so does temperament. I expect NMU to melt down and take an abundance of poor penalties if Michigan takes a lead in either contest. On the flip side, if they stay disciplined, this could be a rather tight and physical pair of games, much like the Miami series. Michigan’s depth needs to finish chances and keep Gron and Florek frustrated.

The other factor is, Saturday is Senior Night, so there will be a ton of emotion on the ice. This has been a dual edged sword for Michigan in the past. I expect Hunwick, Pateryn, Glendening and Wohlberg to embrace the moment and be the best players on the ice this weekend. The ramifications at stake for Michigan are numerous: six big conference points and an outside shot at a league regular season title; TUC (teams under consideration), PWR (pair wise rankings) and national ranking implications; Final home series for the regular season and for our seniors; a regionally televised audience for the annual “Hockey Day in Michigan” promotion. Finally, there is a factor of revenge that Michigan is seeking from the games in October, since NMU was the team that initiated the strategy to run Hunwick in order to set him off emotionally. This will be a high charged atmosphere that needs the CCHA’s attention, considering what happened a few weeks back against Miami.

Friday: 3-1 Michigan. Saturday: 4-2 Michigan.

Yost Bits:

-Yost fans NOTE: Anyone that uses Crisler arena parking is advised to take Main Street to Stadium Blvd. to access parking lots due to construction. Stadium Blvd. will be closed east of Crisler Arena until November, 2012. ALSO: Please be aware that on Saturday, the game is at 5:05 PM due to the basketball game later in the evening. Parking will be at an extreme premium due to multiple events taking place on campus.

– Michigan has outscored their opponents 107-72 this season, while NMU has outscored their opposition 84-79.
– Chris Brown, move over: Three NMU players hail from the state of Texas also: sophomore Erik Higby (New Braunfels), sophomore CJ Ludwig (Little Elm) and freshman Ryan Daugherty (Sachse).

-NMU Bike gate: Back in November six NMU players were arrested and brought on charges for bike theft/possession of stolen property. Eric Walker and Dylan Walchuk (who played against Michigan in October) had charges dismissed and are no longer with the team. Mitch Jones, Jake Baker, Stephan Vigier and Dan Vandercook, Jr. are all awaiting sentencing in February. They could face 93 days in jail and/or a $500 fine UNLESS they do not violate terms of their probation from the December hearing. They will most likely have the charges dropped and dismissed from their records if they abide by the court rules.

-Michigan enters play 5th in the Pairwise rankings (meaning they would be a #2 seed in the NCAA tourney). They are also 13-9-4 against Teams Under Consideration (TUC) this season- an element in how the PWR is composed. Six CCHA teams are still in position for the NCAA tourney with several others on the bubble, including second place WMU.

– Birthday greetings this past week to freshman Travis Lynch.

-Michigan hits the road next weekend for a pair of games to conclude the regular season at Bowling Green.

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Written by GBMWolverine Staff — YostMeister

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