GBMWolverine: Michigan Hockey -- Future Expectations, The CCHA, and Next on Tap

Posted at 4:00pm — 1/31/2012

GBMWolverine: Michigan Hockey — Future Expectations, The CCHA, and Next on Tap

Future Expectations:
If anyone following college hockey hasn’t noticed, The CCHA is as tightly contested as ever with nine of the eleven teams separated by a mere nine points. Ferris State has quietly navigated themselves into the top spot going into next weekend, one point ahead of WMU, OSU and Miami with Lake State two points behind Ferris. The Bulldogs have also vaulted up the pairwise rankings and now sit 4th overall which would offer them a top seed at one of the four NCAA regionals. Notre Dame is 6th in the conference, four points behind the leader and Michigan has slipped back to 7th, five points behind the Bulldogs and would enter NCAA play as a 2nd seed. The Irish and Wolverines both can gain ground on the Lakers, which will take off from conference play next weekend. LSSU, Miami and OSU also have played two more games than the teams either directly above or below them, and will have their break from conference action coming ahead in the next few weeks.

It is really difficult to predict what is going to happen on a week to week basis in the CCHA this season. As long time radio voice for the Wolverines, Al Randall told our very own Mike Fitzpatrick on his Michigan Man podcast last week (a must listen to episode if you haven’t heard it), the conference is probably not as strong as he has seen it, (from the standpoint of say “potent” Michigan, LSSU, MSU teams as in the past) but it clearly has more depth and parity. Anyone can emerge from this logjam, including the Wolverines. My personal opinion, based on the composite schedule I have looked at, gives favor to WMU- but even they found a way to lose to BGSU this past weekend, so we’ll see.

Speaking Of The CCHA:
I hate the shootouts. I can’t say it any plainer than that, and I’m going to whine a little about it. It is no secret that the Wolverines have struggled in this aspect and for the first time since its inception, I believe it will hurt some teams (including Michigan) that also struggle in this gimmicky way to break tie games. I did a quick conversion back to the old two point win/1 point tie system and found that the standings would be impacted. Ferris would still be in front, tied with OSU. Miami would be 3rd a point back and WMU and ND would be tied for 4th two points back, and LSSU would be tied with Michigan for 6th a mere three points back of the leader. Considering the games in hand, Michigan would be in a much better position to win the league. As it stands now, the Wolverines will have to scratch and claw just to slot themselves into a top four position which would guarantee a second round home ice playoff series. A fifth place finish offers a first round bye, but also a travel series against the fourth place team.

I’d rather the league playoff slotting be determined during regulation play and not by some skills competition. The extra points some teams have earned will affect the standings this season. Unfortunately, it won’t affect Michigan positively.

How Will The CCHA Stack Up Against Other Conferences?

The CCHA has had a wonderful season and is going to be strongly represented in the NCAA tournament. I expect anywhere from 4-5 teams to qualify- with six teams qualifying if the tournament was to start today. My concern is, though, how would our top teams that would currently be in line for a bid fare against other conference teams that appear to be in line for NCAA bids?

For instance, we have seen the best of Michigan (against BC) and the worst of Michigan (against Union.) Notre Dame has shocked BC, BU, Minnesota Duluth and Minnesota. WMU has gotten stunned by Minnesota Duluth, but tied Union twice. Miami split a series with potential ECAC at large Colgate, and beat Denver. OSU didn’t play a strong nc schedule, so who knows, and Ferris lost to AHA power RIT, but swept Colgate. NMU is 5-1 against three midpack WCHA teams, but hasn’t played against NCAA competition outside of the CCHA.

Based on that information, it will be hard to gauge how our conference will stack up. The HEA (BC, BU, Maine, Mass-Lowell and Merrimack) will also be well represented if the top 15 teams in PWR stay the same the next eight weeks. Minnesota-Duluth from the WCHA and BU for HEA appear to be the favorites and with good reason. But none are a sure bet as UMD roared from a third seed position to win the National Championship last season. The strength of the CCHA is in goal-tending and defense- two huge components that should represent for the CCHA very well.

Next On Tap:
The Wolverines will return home for a two game series against Miami. It will be another most critical series for Michigan and one that will probably determine whether they remain a CCHA regular season title contender or a team that will be scrambling to gain a top four position. I’ll have my series preview coming up this week and an update on Wohlberg’s condition.

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Written by GBMWolverine Staff — YostMeister

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