GBMWolverine: Michigan Basketball — Big Ten — Should be Big — More Big Ten Mid Pack — Preview

Posted at 6:00am — 12/31/2011

GBMWolverine: Michigan Basketball — Big Ten — Should be Big — More Big Ten Mid Pack — Preview

The two teams that make up the remaining two spots of the Big Ten mid pack are Michigan and Illinois.

Illinois success will revolve around strong guard play. Junior D. J. Richardson is a very good guard in a league full of very good guards. In another setting he might ascend to the top, this might happen anyway. D. J. is averaging over 14 points a game, a good total in the Illini system that values holding the other team down. His shooting is nearly identical from in front of and behind the arc. Like most leading guards, D. J. is a very strong free-throw shooter.

Another junior guard is Brandon Paul averaging 12 points a game. His shooting numbers are not near as high as Richardson and the turnover number is somewhat excessive.

Again Illinois will have a skyscraper inside at center. This year 7’ 1” sophomore Meyers Leonard mans the middle. He is second on the team averaging about 14 points per game and is the primary rebounder with over eight rebounds per contest. His shooting percentage is high as one would suspect from a low post player.

A third guard, Sam Maniscalco is also averaging in double figures. He is a smaller guard and the best foul shooter in the regular rotation, hitting near 90 percent.

The best producer at forward is 6’ 8” Tyler Griffey who is hitting 6.5 points a game.

As a team Illinois is shooting 45 percent but only 32 percent from three-point land. The Illini are outscoring the opposition by 10 points a game and hold a near six rebound advantage over opposing teams. The team is near 75% from the free-throw line, very good indeed. Turnovers are a little high but the blocks and steals far outpace opposing teams.

Illinois is capable of finishing as high as fourth, but in the mixer of the mid pack anything from 4 to 8 could happen. Illinois is always tough at home and this year is no different, as the Illini have started out 8-0. In the past Illinois has been a little bit of a mystery team, we will see as the conference schedule progresses.

There is not much mystery to Michigan; the team has strengths and weaknesses. Two items are very certain.

First, Tim Hardaway Junior has taken over as the go to scorer and is averaging over 16 points a game. His rebounding could improve, but in fairness he plays many times away from the hoop. Hardaway’s shooting could be better and he still launches some style point shots that others would turn down. He simply believes anything that leaves his hand will go in. That is the way shooters must think.

Second, Trey Burke has become the point guard many have envisioned. He is making freshman mistakes, but Trey is not the typical freshman. He is running the floor very well, finding players with easy assists, and his shooting has been a nice surprise. He takes some bad shots on the run or off balance, but many times he has little choice as the clock is ticking down. He is rebounding well for 6’ 1.”

Then there is Evan Smotrycz, recently on a roll. His string of triple doubles, even considering the opposition, is impressive. One thing for certain, give this guy a wide-open three opportunity and he will take and usually make it. He must be accounted for and this provides opportunities for others. Evan’s shooting percentage is near off the chart, hitting 56 and 54 percent from two and three point land. Evan has become a better rebounder, probably by coaching demand and personal choice. Now he must choose to make defense more of a concern because he gives up easy points that cut into his shooting advantage.

The inside play of Michigan remains disappointing. On one hand the perimeter players go eons without getting the ball to Morgan, Horford, or McLimans. On the other hand sometimes the big guys do not finish. The injury to Horford means Morgan will need to be smart and stay out of foul trouble and McLimans needs to give the Wolverines very valuable minutes.

The shooting guard position is really just perimeter players and includes Zack Novak, Stu Douglass, and Matt Vogrich. Of the three Novak is shooting the best and the other two need to pick it up from three point range.

The rotation for Michigan is not deep with eight players seeing serious time. There are times Michigan goes asleep and is far too nice letting other teams hang around. Rebounding has given Michigan a small edge, but at least this year there is an edge. The turnovers have been around the normal 12 per game range, but the team does not get to the line as often as opponents, due to the willingness to fire threes early and often. The foul shooting remains just so-so and should improve.

With all the difficulties, the Wolverines are a tough out and will be tough to beat at home (like most other Big Ten teams). Like everyone in the mid pack mixer, fortune could go either way and time will tell. Michigan is shooting near the bar of 38 percent from three point land.

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Written by GBMWolverine Staff

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