GBMWolverine: Michigan Hockey — First Half Recap and Analysis — Part II
Posted at 6:00am — 12/20/2011
GBMWolverine: Michigan Hockey — First Half Recap and Analysis — Part II
What Does This Mean?
Well, it means that the Wolverines are going to have to play mistake free in the second half. Two seasons ago, the team was in the same dilemma: out of a top five CCHA position, out of the pairwise top 16 (for NCAA tourney selection) and basically had to win their conference tournament to qualify. That team- with much more talent and experience- accomplished that feat by winning a first round series at home, sweeping a series at MSU and then beating Miami and NMU at JLA to win an auto-bid to the NCAA tournament.
This team, though, minus Merrill potentially, and without as much experience, is facing a steeper hill. The schedule is much more demanding in the second half (which officially begins with the GLI tournament) with games against #3 ranked BC (12-6) and either #15 MSU or Michigan Tech. Although these games do not affect the CCHA, they do affect Michigan’s sub-par pairwise ranking which is at 17th right now. Realistically, Michigan will have to finish in the top 14 in PWR to gain an at large bid IF they do not win the CCHA tournament. Once CCHA play resumes, Michigan opens at home for a pair of games against 4th place #16 LSSU. They then travel to conference leader #4 Ohio in Columbus and to Cleveland for games- with the second game the outdoor game. A two game trip to South Bend and second place #6 Notre Dame is next. Ninth place Miami comes to Yost for a pair followed by a trip back to #15 MSU and then a return game at JLA versus the Spartans. Seventh place NMU returns to Yost for a pair and then the regular season closes out at current last place BGSU.
That is only six home games, six road games and four neutral site games. Michigan, in my estimate, will have to win ten of the fourteen CCHA games and finish 11-5 in the second half (20-13-3, 15-10-3-1 for the regular season) to have a shot at a top five CCHA finish and position themselves for a top 14 pairwise finish. Six teams in the PWR (BC-#3, ND-#4, LSSU-#14, OSU-#1, MSU-#9 and NMU-#10) are ahead of them currently- teams the Wolverines will face. Anything less than this will probably end the Wolverines 20+ year run in the NCAA tournament.
What Do They Have To Do To Accomplish This?
Michigan will have to clean up the following issues:
1. Commit to 60 minutes every game. To many games the Wolverines have looked like world beaters until an avalanche of mistakes (turnovers, faceoff losses, penalties etc.) in a very fragmented portion of the contest, turn the game against them.
2. Commitment to team defense. The MSU series demonstrated that their offense usually is created by better team defense. It also makes their goal-tending much better.
3. Convert on special teams. Michigan’s PP is sporadic and lacks creativity. The PK has been atrocious, particularly in the last half minute when failed clears have killed them.
4. Limit the shots on net. It’s been a problem all season, and it is usually a symptom of poor defensive coverage on rebounds.
5. Stop taking dumb penalties. Most cases in the first half, needless penalties at inopportune times have stopped momentum. The penalty kill has not been good enough to overcome them.
6. Play a simpler road game. This team will have to figure out a way to overcome road adversity with opponent crowds, officiating etc. If they can close out games better they will not improve.
Did They Do ANYTHING Well?
Sure they did. They beat three ranked foes at Yost. They still have a very formidable offense that is ranked in the top 10 in the country. They have two dynamite freshmen leading the team in scoring. The goal-tending has been above average for the most part. The younger members of the team have shown improvement.
Midterm Grades:
Team Offense: B+. The team seeks offense first in their up tempo style. The defense needs to be more involved. Michigan’s top forwards went through scoring droughts in large stretches during games, though. Individuals such as Zach Hyman, Luke Moffatt and Lindsay Sparks disappeared for the most part down the stretch. Junior Kevin Lynch has been a major disappointment overall.
Team Defense: C. The blue-liners can only do so much. Much of the defensive zone problems have been attributed to lost face-offs, lost individual battles and defensive zone coverage (back-checking from forwards.) This area will need to improve dramatically and most of it will hinge on just wanting the puck more than the opponent. Freshman Mike Chiasson has been a surprise, while freshman Brennan Serville has struggled.
Goal-tending: B. Michigan’s fortunes rest on Shawn Hunwick. He has been good to above average, except for when he loses his focus. It is common knowledge that bumping him will result in emotional outbursts. He has to maintain his cool and be a demonstrative leader. He is the Wolverine’s best chance for a second half rebound. Back-up netminders Adam Janecyk and Luke Dwyer are not prepared for meaningful action.
Special Teams: D. Both the PK and PP are sitting in the bottom half of the national averages. This is particularly troubling for the PK units which used to be an area of great pride for Michigan Hockey. The PP is even worse, although this is more associated with the personnel on the unit, particularly on the blue line. Both the PK and the PP has a definite hole created by the loss of Jon Merrill. Lee Moffie and Mac Bennett have been prolific offensively, but haven’t transferred it over to special teams.
Overall: C-. Most pundits knew that this would be a transition season for Michigan. The loss of Brandon Burlon to the AHL and Merrill to suspension has added to a very uneven first half. Talent is present in the lineup, though, along with 11 NHL draftees. This team has underperformed and the expectation is that they will compete with better mental focus and emotional “heart” in the second half. If you were to look around the country, there are several high profile programs struggling very similar to Michigan: North Dakota, Denver and UNO in the WCHA. Miami in the CCHA. Yale in the ECAC. All of these teams are in danger of missing the NCAA tournament, so the phenomenon is not just affecting Ann Arbor. Parity and the rise of other programs in the country will make a NCAA berth difficult this season not only for Michigan, bit for those other teams as well.
Next up: The GLI Preview.
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Written by GBMWolverine Staff — YostMeister
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