Michigan Hockey: Moving on to the NCAA West Regional against UNO — Part 2

Posted at 8:00AM — 3/25/2011

Michigan Hockey: Moving on to the NCAA West Regional against UNO — Part 2

What:
NCAA Tournament West Regional, Scottrade Center, St.Louis, Mo.
When:
Friday March 25 & March 26
Who:
#1 Seed Boston College vs. #4 Seed Colorado College 9:00 p.m.
#2 Seed Michigan vs. #3 Seed University of Nebraska-Omaha 5:30 p.m.
Winners advance to the regional final at 9:00 p.m. on Saturday
TV:
Michigan’s game will be on Comcast ch 900, Direct TV ch 681 (if you have the sports pkg) and ESPN 3 via the internet, tape delayed at 11:30 p.m. on ESPNU. The late game on Friday and the regional championship game on Saturday will be shown on ESPNU.

Prediction:
My optimism for this game is not very high. UNO is still trying to stamp their legitimacy as an “arrived” program after a highly successful first season in the WCHA. Their resume this season against ranked teams is impressive, their coach is well proven and their system and chemistry is strong. The Mavericks are supported by the largest booster club in college hockey and will be in St.Louis in substantial numbers. A victory over Michigan will not only turn the tables on this once lopsided series (Michigan leads it 25-7-3) since they will have won four of the last five games, but will give the Mavericks the momentum to win a regional championship either over WCHA rival Colorado College or perennial powerhouse and current national champion, Boston College. UNO will be ready for this match-up after getting embarrassed in the WCHA playoffs.

On the other side is a tradition rich Wolverines team that comes limping into the NCAA tournament with their pride hurt and their roster thinned by suspension, sickness and injury. My gut tells me that these are the moments where Michigan rises and rests on their character and leadership to spring a trap and pull out a stirring victory. My heart is completely Maize and Blue, but my mind is resolute that there are too many factors against this Michigan team to overcome, especially after the offensive short circuiting and defensive lapses committed at Joe Louis Arena AND the nominal record Michigan carries away from Yost arena (7-6-3, 3-2 neutral ice.) Shawn Hunwick has the heart of the lion, but will have to play like Marty Turco for the Wolverines to overcome these obstacles. Unfortunately, I have to listen to my mind. Michigan’s season prematurely ends with an agonizing 3-1 defeat to UNO.

Yost Bits:
-Michigan’s 21st straight NCAA appearance and 34th overall appearance are NCAA records.
-Michigan has also appeared in 23 Frozen Fours and have won 9 National Titles, first in both categories.
-Michigan is 47-26 in the NCAA tournament with Red Berenson picking up 26 of those wins, ranking him third all time.
-Michigan is 9-1 in its past 10 games.
-Red Berenson is 2-5-1 against UNO coach Dean Blais, 1-3 as UNO’s head man and 1-2-1 while at North Dakota.
-The Wolverines, if they meet BC in the tournament, is 10-6 all-time against the Eagles and 4-2 in the NCAA tournament. Michigan is also 58-36-3 all time and 5-2 against Colorado College in the NCAA playoffs.

Handicapping The Regions:
Boston College and Colorado College are the other participants in the West Regional. The BC Eagles are 30-7-1 and won the Hockey East tournament. They also bring a 15-1-1 streak into the NCAA tournament. BC has been the model of consistency for over a decade, appearing in 7 of the past 12 national championship games and winning 3 of those, including last season. They are well balanced offensively, but rely on junior Cam Atkinson (30-21-51) and senior Brian Gibbons (18-32-50). On defense, sophomore Brian Dumolin (3-30-33) is a dangerous power play specialist. Senior John Muse (27-5-1, 2.13 GAA & .926 save %) is seeking to backstop BC to back to back titles. They have few weaknesses, have great speed and can play just about any type of game- either outscoring you or by settling into a 1-0 affair. They would be my pick to win the regional and advance to the Frozen Four again. They have not played the Wolverines since October, 2007 in the Ice Breaker tournament. Louie Caporusso scored the OT winner in a 4-3 victory to kick off a season that ended in the Frozen Four. Ironically, BC went on to win the 2008 national championship.

The Tigers are a young team that relies on its offense, and specifically its power play to take over games. CC sits 22-18-3 on the year and finished 6th in the WCHA. They have won seven games against other teams in the tournament and are led by senior forward Stephen Schultz (16-27-43.) Freshman sensation Jaden Schwartz (15-27-42) missed time this season with a broken leg suffered while playing for team Canada in the U-20 World Junior Tournament during the Christmas holidays. Junior defender Gabe Guentzel (6-21-27) paces the blueline attack. Sophomore netminder Joe Howe (17-14-2, 2.94 GAA & .901 save %) is a streaky goaltender. The key to beating CC is to stop their lethal power play which accounted for 52 of their 134 goals this season. Conversely, they have also given up 11 shorthanded goals. Michigan defeated CC 6-5 to win the GLI tournament in December in a game that featured a total of four PPG’s by the Tigers and one SHG and one PPG by the Wolverines.

In the East Region (Bridgeport, CT.): Yale, Union, Minnesota-Duluth and Air Force.

The Eli’s are the overall #1 seed in the tournament and East regional host. They have the easiest draw on paper, but it is funny how that doesn’t matter once the games begin. They are a potent offensively, will stifle you defensively and have adequate goaltending. Union is a surprise team out of the Yale’s ECAC conference that split this season with Yale. UM-D is a solid WCHA team that will be even money to beat Union in the first semi. Air Force surprised RIT in the Atlantic Hockey Conference tourney final to take the last autobid in the national tournament. They are not to be overlooked (as Michigan found out two years ago) and have already beaten Yale once this season, only one of six losses for the Eli’s. If there is a potential for a #1 seed to go down, it is in this regional. Pick: Yale over Minnesota Duluth in the regional final.

In the Northeast Region (Manchester, NH): Miami, Merrimack, Notre Dame and New Hampshire.
Miami is the CCHA tourney champ and is playing their best hockey of the season, yet drew one of the tougher regionals. They can beat you in all three facets of the game, but gets most of their attention from their offense, specifically from Hobey Baker finalist Andy Miele. It will be their defense and goaltending, though, that will carry them. Merrimack hasn’t qualified for the national tournament since 1988 and gave both UNH and BC everything they could handle in the Hockey East tournament, beating UNH and losing in OT to BC. Notre Dame comes into the tournament floundering, mostly due to poor defensive play and a sudden lack of goaltending. They are a young team, though, and played a high profile schedule which should help them regroup. UNH is a fast skating offensive squad and will be hosting the NE regional which should provide ample fan support. The Miami-UNH game should be a high scoring entertaining affair. Miami is another team with potential to be upset especially since playing the host team in front of their fans is no easy task. Pick: Miami over Merrimack in the regional final.

In the Midwest Region (Green Bay, WI.): North Dakota, Denver, Western Michigan and RPI.
North Dakota is one of the favorites to advance to the national championship game, but faces a rather stiff regional path first. They are probably the hottest team in the country, undefeated in their last 13 (12-0-1.) They can beat you in a variety of ways, but mostly ride Hobey Baker favorite Matt Frattin and goaltender Aaron Dell who is amongst the leaders in goaltending statistics. UND swept both the WCHA regular season and tournament titles, defeating Denver in OT to win the WCHA’s Broadmoor Trophy last weekend. They roll four lines, are big, fast and physical. Denver is no slouch, either, but is a tad less offensively powerful than the Sioux, yet is also a big, fast and punishing team that lacks tourney experience. They were WCHA league runner ups in the regular and post season. WMU is celebrating their re-birth and their first NCAA bid since 1996. They rely on a strong defensive play and opportunistic offensive strikes. Rensselaer was the last at large team in the tournament and is going to advance on the strength of their senior leadership and the potential of their outstanding goaltending.
Pick: North Dakota stings Denver in the regional final.

Thinking Long Term:

In the Frozen Four held in Minneapolis-St. Paul this season, I have Yale advancing to play Miami and BC advancing to play North Dakota in a titanic match-up. In this scenario, I’ll take Miami over Yale and North Dakota over BC. North Dakota would be my choice as national champ in 2010-11.

Other NCAA Hockey News:

The Big Ten Conference announced formally that the Big Ten Hockey Conference will officially begin play in the 2012-13 time frame pending full completion of Penn State’s facilities. This has caused a ripple affect across college hockey, with Wisconsin and Minnesota leaving the WCHA and Ohio State, Michigan and MSU leaving the CCHA. The intention is to formulate a 20 game conference schedule and backfill the remaining 14 (or more) non-conference games with former conference foes. (Schools are allowed to play a maximum of 34 regular season games unless they play in exempted tournament games in Alaska.)
The real debate will be how this affects the WCHA and especially the CCHA which has a number of smaller schools that depend on the revenues from the anchor members leaving the conference. More discussions will take place amongst the parties involved.

Stay tuned to the forum for the latest Michigan Hockey news… Go Blue!

Written by GBMWolverine Staff

Go Blue — Wear Maize!