Michigan Hockey: Moving on to the NCAA West Regional against UNO — Part 1

Posted at 8:00AM — 3/24/2011

Michigan Hockey: Moving on to the NCAA West Regional against UNO — Part 1

#6 Wolverine Icers Flop in CCHA Semi-Finals; Finish Third and Move On To The NCAA West Regional Against #14 UNO

What:
NCAA Tournament West Regional, Scottrade Center, St.Louis, Mo.
When:
Friday March 25 & March 26
Who:
#1 Seed Boston College vs. #4 Seed Colorado College 9:00 p.m.
#2 Seed Michigan vs. #3 Seed University of Nebraska-Omaha 5:30 p.m.
Winners advance to the regional final at 9:00 p.m. on Saturday
TV:
Michigan’s game will be on Comcast ch 900, Direct TV ch 681 (if you have the sports pkg) and ESPN 3 via the internet, tape delayed at 11:30 p.m. on ESPNU. The late game on Friday and the regional championship game on Saturday will be shown on ESPNU.

Rewinding Last Week’s Action:
The Wolverines fell behind an aggressive and more competitive Western Michigan team and got drubbed 5-2 last Friday evening in the second CCHA semi-final game of the evening. Michigan’s downfall began at the midpoint of the first period when Derek DeBlois took a careless boarding penalty. On the ensuing power play, Jon Merrill inexplicitly lifted the net off of its moorings during a scramble in front and was also sent off for delay of game. Western scored on the 5×3 advantage and the scored remained 1-0 after twenty minutes. The Broncos blew the game open in the second period, scoring four times-including two more PP goals- to seal the game. Michigan added a third period marker but couldn’t complete a comeback.

Shawn Hunwick surrendered all five goals and made 18 saves before yielding to Bryan Hogan in the third period. Overall, the Wolverines played their worst game of the season defensively. Ironically they also gave up five goals in a 6-5 win over Colorado College at JLA.

Miami took care of business in the first game, blitzing Notre Dame 6-2. The Fighting Irish went on to play the Wolverines in the consolation game on Saturday, and Michigan squeezed out a 4-2 victory. Michigan came out firing and nearly opened the scoring minutes into the contest as Carl Hagelin rattled one off of the crossbar. It was the Irish that drew first blood, though, as Shawn Hunwick attempted a clearing pass up the glass behind him. Instead, it found one of the officials, deflected the puck off of his helmet and it then ricocheted back into the slot. Notre Dame’s Riley Sheahan tapped it by Hunwick to give Notre Dame the 1-0 lead. Michigan responded late in the period as Louie Caporusso scored a 2×1 PPG just seconds after the Irish had a glorious shorthanded chance. Fifteen seconds later, Carl Hagelin broke in and buried a wrister far side to give Michigan a 2-1 lead. The game stayed that way until the third period when Jeff Rohrkemper batted a rebound under the Irish netminder Steven Summerhays to pot the game winner at 4:37. The Irish really pressured the Michigan defense and had five or six outstanding chances in the second and third periods. Shawn Hunwick was superb in canceling any effort the Irish made. Notre Dame did make things interesting with 1:22 to go, when they tallied an extra attacker goal to cut the margin to 3-2. Luke Glendening salted the game away with five seconds to go with an empty net goal. Hunwick made 42 saves in the victory in a clean game that only saw four minor penalties, two to each team. Michigan’s win coupled with the results from the other conference tournaments secured them the 5th overall position in the Pairwise Rankings and a 2nd seed in the West (St. Louis) Regional. The Irish locked in a 3rd seed berth in the Northeast Regional.

Miami secured their first ever CCHA tournament championship with a mid third period burst breaking a 2-2 tie with Western to go on to a 5-2 win. They locked up the 4th overall spot in the Pairwise Rankings, earning them the #1 regional seed in the Northeast (Manchester, NH) Regional. WMU will be in their first NCAA tournament game since 1996 earning a 3rd seed at the Midwest Regional in Green Bay, Wisconsin.

Yostmeister Three Stars of the Weekend:

1. Miami Redhawks Team – bulled their way to the CCHA tournament championship scoring eleven goals while only yielding four.
2. Dane Walters – WMU – had a 2-1-3 line for the weekend, and scored 4 goals this season against Michigan.
3. Shawn Hunwick – Michigan – Had a awful game against Western only to comeback and will Michigan to a 4-2 victory over Notre Dame with a 42 save performance.

Breaking Down The Mavericks:
Michigan got a taste of the revamped Mavericks under Dean Blais the last two seasons. In February, 2010 UNO swept the Wolverines in Omaha setting off the tailspin that almost dumped them out of qualifying for the NCAA tournament. This past October, as a new member of the WCHA, the Mavericks marched into Yost arena and dominated Michigan in the Friday night meeting- opening a 4-0 lead before two third period goals for Michigan made the final a respectable 4-2 score. The next night, however, Michigan jumped on the Mavericks, scoring: 08 into the contest, then midway through the first period to lead 2-0. They went on to a 6-1 win in a game that Blais said his team didn’t compete in at all.

Blais didn’t seem to have much trouble with his team competing against other high profile teams- sweeping WCHA stalwarts such as Minnesota and Wisconsin, and splitting with teams like Colorado College (1-1), Denver (1-1), Minnesota Duluth (1-1) and North Dakota (2-2). Unfortunately, the Mavs also played down to the level of their inferior opponents as well, losing games to Alaska-Anchorage, Alabama Huntsville, Bemidji State and getting swept at Quinnipiac. The Mavericks finished third in the conference, mere points behind Denver and North Dakota. That is quite impressive for a team picked to finish 8th or 9th in the conference.

The good news for Wolverine fans though is that UNO stumbled at the end of the season, going 5-5 in their last ten games and 1-4 in their last five games, including a WCHA first round playoff home sweep at the hands of their nemesis from Bemidji State. UNO’s season was strong enough to earn them a 12th seed in the Pairwise Rankings and a date against Michigan. The bad news is, they are well rested, healthy and foaming at the mouth to earn their first NCAA tournament win against the hated Wolverines.

UNO brings speed, skill and size into this match-up. The forwards are all big with an average of 6’0 and 200 lbs. The defense is even bigger averaging 6’3” and 210 lbs. The Mavericks have eight players that have scored 11 goals or more this season. UNO is led offensively by a pair of seniors: Matt Ambroz (17-17-34) and Joey Martin (11-23-34). The first line usually consists of Rich Purslow (12-20-32), Alex Hudson (12-18-30) and Terry Broadhurst (11-19-30). Youngsters Matt White (14-11-25), Ryan Walters (11-11-22) and Brock Montpetit (11-9-20) are sprinkled in the third line and occasionally pair with Ambroz and Martin.

The defense is huge, but somewhat immobile. Senior Eric Olimb (6’0” 203) is the star blue-liner for UNO, potting 3-24-27 for the season. Fellow seniors Nick Van Bokern (6’4” 222) and Pasko Skarica (6’5” 225) anchor the third pairing. Juniors Matt Smith (6’2” 202) and Kyle Ensign (5’11” 190) rotate with in the lineup with sophomore Bryce Aneloski (6’2” 207) and freshmen Andrej Sustr (6’8” 200) and Michael Young (6’3” 213). They play a very physical style, moving up in the neutral zone to cutoff any speed in order to utilize their size and push forwards to the outside. Teams have success beating their defense on stretch passes and out skating them to create scoring chances. UNO’s forwards played a key role in limiting these chances with their strong back-check.

Goal-tending will be a large factor for UNO. Sophomore John Faulkner (20-14-2, 2.55 GAA & .906 save %) is a big, mobile net-minder that plays a butterfly style. When he is on his game he is tough to beat and limits his rebounds. He was the WCHA’s 3rd Team goaltender and earned six shutouts this season. The downside is, his play has been erratic as of late, giving up three or more goals in his last eleven starts. If Michigan can catch Faulkner on an off night, it could be the momentum needed to beat the Mavs. Faulkner’s numbers may not blow you away, but keep in mind he also played in the (self proclaimed) toughest conference in college hockey and did shut out North Dakota.

“Sizing” The Match-up:
Michigan and UNO are not very different in their style and approach to the game. Credit both coaches for utilizing an up tempo offensive structure predicated on quick breakouts, speed through the neutral zone and solid, two way forward play. The major difference seems to be the size of the teams. This is important since UNO can dominate shifts in the offensive zone cycling and screening. Many of their offensive chances are created by throwing the puck at the net and finishing off of rebounds. Michigan, on the other hand, doesn’t rely as much on size as much as their puck skill and speed. The defense also has been a huge part of the offense this season, and has to measure calculated gambles jumping up into the play. This is where UNO can develop an advantage, creating odd man rushes off of poor reads or neutral zone turnovers. They are very good at this and have the speed to match Michigan. The Wolverines on the other hand, can force the slower Mavs defense into turnovers and convert in similar fashion.

Comparing the numbers, Michigan is 12th nationally in offense (3.42 gpg) where UNO is 17th at 3.32 gpg.
Michigan’s defensive statistics weigh out at 8th best at 2.30 gpg, where UNO is a solid 14th at 2.53 gpg.
This could neutralize each other’s attack if both teams settle into a defensive battle. Michigan will be missing two key cogs in forward David Wohlberg (collarbone) and defenseman Brandon Burlon who remains out due to the effects of strep throat. I give the edge to UNO in both categories, especially if Michigan can’t contain the UNO cycle AND Michigan cannot generate offense from anyone other than Hagelin and Caporusso. Guys like Rust, Vaughn, Brown, Treais and Lynch need to step up offensively.

Both teams bring non-descript special teams to the match. Michigan checks in at 24th on the PP at 18.5% conversion, while UNO is 34th at 17.6% conversion, with the Mavericks scoring three less goals than the Wolverines with nine less PP chances. Both teams are similar in penalty killing, also. Michigan is 25th in the nation at 82.4% and UNO is T-20th at 83.4%. If Michigan is going to win this game, they must convert on their odd man chances. Conversely, Michigan must stay out of the box against a very opportunistic UNO team. This appears to be a wash, although UNO was successful in October against Michigan’s PK.

Michigan may gain an edge in the penalty department. UNO plays a very physical style, aggressive and averages 1.2 minutes per game more time in the box than the Wolverines. (Michigan is 35th and UNO is 20th.) The telling factor will be how the officiating will call the game- keep in mind that neither officiating crew will be from the CCHA or WCHA- so the game may be called extremely tight. Michigan fans are hoping for consistency and accuracy.

Goaltending:
Shawn Hunwick enters the NCAA tournament with the CCHA’s Best Goaltender accolades but certainly couldn’t be faulted too much for his team abandoning him the last two games. Hunwick is seeking his 20th win of the season (19-9-4) and sports a 2.31 GAA with a .921 save %. Shawn has to stay within his game and make the saves he should- plus a few more- if Michigan is to advance. This is probably the biggest key to victory in the playoffs. Of course, the other side of the equation is a team dedication to their defensive assignments. Michigan has not been strong in clearing pucks immediately, or covering Hunwick’s vulnerable back side- since he must move out farther from the crease to cut angles. His defense has not been clearing opponents away from rebounds, which unfortunately, Hunwick has been yielding. If these issues are cleaned up, especially since this is UNO’s bread and butter, Michigan should be successful. Of course, when Michigan’s defense is playing as they can, they block a ton of shots and Hunwick will go stretches without much action. Burlon is a huge loss on defense, though.

Faulkner, as I previously mentioned, either has been really good or really mediocre. He enjoys a huge defense that blocks shooting lanes for him and pushes opponents to the perimeter of the zone. Rebounds are non-existent when he is on, and the defense makes sure that no opponent reaches them, also. He does have a penchant for the soft goal though in key spots which quickly erodes his mental game. Look for the small but speedy Wolverines to fire from all angles to generate any type of break. Faulkner would be a similar comparison to Alaska’s Scott Greenham.

Part 2:
We will have Predictions, Yost Bits, Handicapping the Regions, and other Hockey news.

Written by GBMWolverine Staff

Go Blue — Wear Maize!