Michigan Hockey: Poised For CCHA Championship Run

Posted at 8:00AM — 3/17/2011

#4 Michigan Hockey: Poised For CCHA Championship Run

#4 MICHIGAN (25-9-4) 1st seed vs. #12 WMU (18-11-10) 4th seed at 8:05 p.m.
#8 Notre Dame (23-11-5) 2nd seed vs. #6 Miami (21-9-6) 3rd seed at 4:35 p.m.
March 18, 2011 Joe Louis Arena, Detroit Michigan
March 19, 2011 Consolation Game at 3:35 p.m. and Championship Game at 7:35 p.m.
TV: Fox Sports Detroit + for all four games this weekend.

Rewinding Last Week’s Action:

The Wolverines swept the Bowling Green Falcons, winning 5-1 on Friday and 4-1 on Saturday. The games were never really in doubt, although the Falcons played physical for the entire sixty minutes. Simply, the Wolverines had too much depth and speed for the Falcons to contend with. Michigan opened up leads both nights and relied on a patient, relentless offensive attack to stymie BGSU. On Friday, David Wohlberg and Chris Brown staked Michigan to a 2-0 lead after one period. Scooter Vaughn added a highlight reel goal in the second period, taking the puck over the BG blue-line, toe dragging around a sliding defender into the slot before wristing a beauty top shelve over BG goaltender Andrew Hammond’s glove. Lindsay Sparks and Luke Moffatt sandwiched goals around the lone BG tally in the third period to finish the scoring. Unfortunately, Wohlberg was lost for the remainder of the season with about 15 minutes left in the game when he was crushed by two BG defenders awkwardly and immediately left the ice clutching his left arm. His collarbone was broken and required surgery to place a metal plate and screws in to repair the injury. His loss will be felt since he was starting to really contribute offensively, scoring four goals in his last four games. He is only second in goals (15) to Carl Hagelin. Shawn Hunwick quietly stopped 23 shots in the victory.

On Saturday, Michigan fought through a stronger BG effort by getting contributions from other sources in the lineup. Defenseman Lee Moffie took the opportunity to break out on a 2×1 shorthanded rush with Luke Glendening and blasted a shortside shot that beat Hammond. Michigan took that goal to the first intermission. Lindsay Sparks split the defense and accepted a perfect feed from Mac Bennett and snapped a wrister by Hammond to extend the lead to 2-0 late in the second period. Moffie pretty much ended the season for BGSU by scoring a power play goal at 18:27 to give Michigan a 3-0 lead after two periods. AJ Treais added another PPG early in the third period and Michigan cruised from there. Coach Berenson sent senior Bryan Hogan into the game. Hogan allowed one goal in his twelve minutes between the pipes and was given a very warm send off by the partisan Yost fans. Third string goaltender Adam Janecyk finished the remaining 1:30 in the game and made one save. It was the last home ice appearance for several seniors. The team raced out to congratulate each other, saluted the fans at center ice and then greeted their fellow students and band before exiting the ice. It was a bittersweet moment for these seniors, especially guys like Matt Rust and Carl Hagelin who stood and soaked in the atmosphere before going off. Hagelin was especially poignant in discussing his last appearance, telling me after the game that he really appreciates the entire fan support the team has gotten and that he’ll never forget his four years at Michigan.

Yostmeister Three Stars of the Weekend:

1. Lee Moffie – Two huge goals on Saturday and solid defensive play paced the blueliners.
2. Lindsay Sparks – Also added two goals including the GWG on Saturday.
3. Scooter Vaughn – A NHL quality goal on Friday and an offensive spark on the new look first shift PP unit gave the Wolverines added confidence.

CCHA Championship Round Analysis:

The Wolverines arrive in Detroit for the 22nd straight season for the conference semi-finals and seek their 10th CCHA tournament title. Most pundits would agree that Michigan is not as powerful offensively as some previous teams, but have more offensive balance across their lineup, with at least ten players notching ten or more points, and a defensive corps that is top five in the country in generating offense. This season has been more about better defensive coverage, even if this has always been a staple of a Red Berenson team. The goal-tending has been solid if not spectacular at times- with the occasional blips that will occur during a season. The Achilles Heel of this team may very well be its nominal special teams play against the better teams they played this season. Games against Miami, CC, Wisconsin and New Hampshire were penalty killing nightmares and may be the one area that Michigan will yield as the “one and done” portion of the playoffs begin. On the other hand, the Michigan power play has perked up and could serve as a welcome source of goals after the loss of David Wohlberg. Michigan comes into the weekend with an eight game winning streak- including two wins over the Broncos during that stretch. That was probably the toughest test they have faced since dropping a pair of games in early February against Miami. Still, Michigan enters the weekend with the 12th best offense and 7th best defense in the country. The PP has improved to 29th and the PK has really improved to 21st overall.

Michigan faces a Western Michigan team brimming with confidence coming into their third meeting in a month. The Wolverines handled the Broncos at Yost, but not without some last minute heroics by Hagelin to wiggle out of a sure Saturday Senior Night loss and a split in the series. (I’ll spare the quotes, but several of the Broncos popped off in an article written in the Kalamazoo Gazette about how they want Michigan badly and know they can beat them.) WMU hadn’t suffered a sweep all season and was particularly upset about their last meeting with Michigan especially with their hopes of securing a NCAA bid. Western finished the season by splitting with Notre Dame (which allowed Michigan to take the regular season crown) and outlasting Ferris State in second round action last weekend in three games (including a 5-4 OT victory in game three) to advance to the CCHA semi-finals for the first time since 1994. Western is a much improved defensive team that is especially disciplined. They sport all CCHA rookie Chase Balisy (12-17-29) and Max Campbell (16-13-29) as their main go to offensive weapons. Forward Shane Berschbach (7-17-24) missed the previous Michigan meetings but is another high octane player. Greg Squires (7-10-17) rounds out the top four Bronco scorers. The Blueline brags of iron men Luke Witkowski (1-7-8, +10), Danny DeKeyser (4-8-12, +10) and Mike Levendusky (2-2-4, +3.) Goaltender Jerry Kuhn enters the fray with a 9-5-6 record, a 2.28 GAA and a .913 save %. They currently sit on the proverbial NCAA bubble at #12 in the PWR and needs to beat the Wolverines or win the consolation game to feel more comfortable about a tourney bid. WMU’s vital stats are pretty average, but do hold the 11th best defense in the country.

In the other semi-final game, #2 seed Notre Dame faces #3 seed Miami in what will be another huge contest. The Irish were nipped at the wire by the Wolverines for the regular season championship and by far have the toughest road of the weekend- getting past Miami and potentially playing Michigan in front of a partisan Michigan crowd. Notre Dame is led by all-CCHA rookies TJ Tynan (21-28-49) and Anders Lee (22-19-41). Junior Sean Lorenz is a stay at home defenseman extraordinaire that will battle with our own Jon Merrill for the CCHA’s defensive defenseman award. Goaltender Mike Johnson brings a 2.48 GAA and a .907 save % into the weekend. Last weekend, Notre Dame had to survive a three game series with Lake State to move on. The Irish can skate and are the 10th best offense in the country. They’re a bit loose on defense at times and their goaltending has not been as strong as in previous seasons. Still, the Irish (#10PWR) need to at least win one game this weekend to keep a spot in the NCAA tourney. Michigan fans root (quietly) for the Irish in this match-up.

The Miami Redhawks are perhaps the hottest and most dangerous team remaining in this tournament. They have used their sweep against Michigan in early February as a means to catapult to an 8-0-3 record, tied with North Dakota for that distinction. They were down right average early in the season, perhaps a hangover from their Frozen Four flop, but have recovered enough to move into this weekend poised to prove that they are back. They have one of the most potent offenses in the country with Hobey Baker candidate Andy Miele (21-44-65), Carter Camper (17-35-52) and Reilly Smith (26-22-48) leading the offense. Pat Cannone chipped in 14-21-35 in a supporting role. Their defense is highly underrated and is led by Cameron Schilling (3-12-15, +17) and Vincent LoVerde (2-7-9, +16). Joe Hartman and Will Weber aren’t bad, either. Connor Knapp (8-5-4, 2.03 GAA, .909 save %) and Cody Reichard (13-4-2, 2.06 GAA, .911 save %) share net duties and both could play this weekend. The Redhawks are fifth in scoring nationally and third in defense. They hold the top PK in the country and are fifth in PP conversion. Most hockey people still think Miami is the best team in the CCHA and this weekend could go a long way in proving that. Miami is sitting 5th in the PWR tied with Michigan, which won the PWR comparison against them.

Pairwise Predictor Fun:

A Michigan-Miami final would probably decide which team would receive the final #1NCAA regional seed when selections are revealed this Sunday. A Miami loss to Notre Dame coupled with a Michigan win over WMU would probably be enough to secure that seeding for Michigan, depending on what happens in the other conference tournaments. This would also set up Miami in the same regional as the Wolverines.
A rare double loss by Miami would take Michigan away from the Redhawks, but will probably give them a team like Denver or Union in their region instead. A Michigan win against WMU and a loss to Miami will give Miami the top regional seed, but place Michigan as the 2nd seed in that regional. This regional would presumably be the St.Louis (Midwest) Regional. A double Michigan loss, with all the other favorites winning in the other conferences, positions Michigan at an 8th overall seed, the lowest 2nd seed in the field, and would probably send the Wolverines out east to Yale’s bracket. Conversely, Michigan could also finish as high as a 3rd overall seed IF they sweep to the CCHA championship and UNH upsets BC out east. Their reward? Probably a top regional spot in St. Louis and a potential regional final match-up with … you guessed it- either Miami or Denver.

Let’s wait and see what happens.

Keys To The Weekend:

Michigan knows that their success this weekend, and in the NCAA tournament for that matter, depends on how well their goaltending and defense holds up. Yes, the Wolverines did not need Wohlberg to go down, but they will get a boost by the return of Louie Caporusso (9-17-26). WMU has not played under this kind of playoff pressure and will be vulnerable to mistakes. Michigan has to capitalize on them and not create chances for the Broncos. Notre Dame and Miami played to two ties earlier this season, with each team taking a shootout victory in South Bend. Miami will have the depth and experience advantage, so the same logic will apply as far as goaltending and defense. The real x-factor will be special teams- and Miami has a clear advantage over the other teams in the field.

Prediction:

I correctly picked the four teams this weekend to advance simply because I thought they were the best four teams in the conference. I like how Michigan is playing, I like the advantage they get having the multitude of fans in Detroit. I didn’t count on them losing a key component of their offense, though. Still, knowing this team, they will not yield much and rally around their Senior leadership to defeat WMU.

I also think that Notre Dame is a year away from challenging Miami or Michigan, but they will find a way to stay close against the Red Hawks. Still, Miami is on a mission to finally win a CCHA tournament title.

Miami will probably be favored in the championship game and rightly so…. But Michigan has been the underdog in the past and has used the momentum of the crowd to pull out tight games. This will be no different.

Michigan beats WMU, 4-2
Miami beats Notre Dame, 3-2
Michigan beats the Redhawks, 4-3 OT

Yost Bits:
-Michigan is 20-2-3 this season when scoring first… only losing to MSU in overtime and Miami.

-Michigan has scored first in seven of the past eight games and is outscoring opponents 33-14 during their current eight game win streak. This is the longest streak since 2007-08 when they ran a ten game streak.

-Michigan penalty killers have been extremely effective, going 27/28 chances and not allowing a goal in seventeen straight penalties over the last four contests.

-Michigan is 10-3 in one goal games. Ironically, four of the past eight games have been decided by one goal.

-Michigan is 8-2 against the Broncos in the CCHA tournament, and last met in the CCHA semi-finals in 1994 where Michigan won 6-4.

-The Wolverines have been in the CCHA Championship game nine of the last ten years, and have won the title nine separate times. They have gone back to back two times (’96 &’97, 2002 & ’03).

-Michigan has never lost to Redhawks in the CCHA Tournament (5-0, 1-0 in the final) and have never beaten the Fighting Irish in the final (6-5 overall, 0-2 in the final).

-The NCAA tournament brackets will be announced on Sunday March 20 at 11:30 a.m. on ESPN 2.

-The CCHA Awards Banquet was held last night. Michigan is nominated for: Coach of the year (Red Berenson), Player of the year and Best defensive forward finalist (Carl Hagelin), Best defensive defenseman and Rookie of the year finalist (Jon Merrill). There are many fine candidates for these awards.

Hagelin wins best defensive forward and Hunwick wins best goaltender.

Stay tuned to the forum for the latest Michigan Hockey news… Go Blue!

Written by GBMWolverine Staff

Go Blue — Wear Maize!