Michigan Hockey: Prepares For Surprising Falcons In CCHA Quarterfinals

Posted at 8:00am — 3/11/2011

Michigan Hockey: Prepares For Surprising Falcons In CCHA Quarterfinals

#5 MICHIGAN (23-9-4, 20-7-1-0) #1 seed vs. BGSU (10-25-4, 3-21-4) #11 seed
Best of three series March 11-12 (13 if necessary) @ Yost Arena, Ann Arbor
Game times: 7:35 each night. TV: Comcast Local will carry each game.

Rewinding Last Week’s Action:
Michigan should be well rested after receiving a bye for the first round of the CCHA Playoffs. In the meantime, 11th seeded Bowling Green pulled the upset of the season so far, bouncing host (6th seed) Northern Michigan in three games. In other action, 8th seeded Lake Superior State swept 9th seeded Ohio State in Sault Ste. Marie and 7th seeded Alaska outlasted 10th seeded MSU in two long OT affairs. #2 seed Notre Dame will entertain the #8 Lakers, while #3 seed Miami will host the #7 Nanooks. #4 seed WMU will host their series against #5 Ferris State in what should be a dandy.

CCHA Playoff Series Analysis:
Michigan comes into the weekend as the prohibitive favorite against Bowling Green, a team that pretty much brought up the rear in most of the important conference statistical categories this season. The Falcons are a very young team- ten freshmen dot the lineup- but have vastly improved since the teams met to open the conference season this past October. BGSU is led offensively by a pair of talented sophomores and freshmen. Second year forwards Jordan Samuels-Thomas (9-12-21) and Marc Rodriguez (6-9-15) along with freshmen Brett Mohler (7-10-17) and Camden Wojtala (4-11-15) are the go to guys for first year head coach Chris Bergeron. Senior leadership is provided by Captain David Solway (5-10-15) who is questionable this weekend after suffering a concussion against NMU a few weeks ago. The blue line is manned by a sophomore corps consisting of Ian Ruel (who will miss this weekend’s series also), Ryan Peltoma, Robert Shea, Reed Rushing and resident goon Max Grover (83 PIM’s for the season.) Freshman Jake Sloat leads the defense in scoring (1-8-9) and senior Andrew Krelove provides much needed experience.

The goal-tending is actually pretty solid, with sophomore Andrew Hammond taking over for senior Nick Eno about midway throughout the season. Hammond (6-15-3, 2.50 GAA and .918 save %) and Eno (4-10-1, 3.14 GAA and .885 save %) split duties until Hammond’s play convinced Bergeron that he should take over full time. Hammond has been very solid in the stretch run, posting a 1.73 GAA and a .941 save % in his last eleven outings, including the shutout he worked in last Sunday’s series clinching game over NMU. His numbers ranked him the 12th best goaltender in the CCHA with a 2.70 GAA and a .913 save %. He will be the x-factor in this series against the Wolverines.

Bowling Green has not fared well against Michigan the last two decades, as the Maize and Blue hold an overall 77-34-3 mark against them. Michigan swept the early season series 4-1 and 4-2 in Ohio. Michigan has won the last five meetings and is 7-2 against the Falcons in the CCHA playoffs with those losses (at Yost) coming in 1989. Michigan last played BG in the 2003 playoffs sweeping that series. The Falcons were 4-13-3 on the road this season, with two of those wins coming last weekend.

Looking at the tale of the tape, Michigan holds a decisive edge:
Offense: Michigan averages 3.49 goals per game (T-14th nationally) vs. BGSU’s anemic 1.85 GPG (58th). Michigan is 3rd in the CCHA in scoring while the Falcons finished last.

Defense: Michigan allows 2.31 GPG (T-8th) vs. BGSU’s 34th best 2.92 GPG average. Michigan led the CCHA in defense while the Falcons finished 10th.

PP: Michigan struggled to a 33rd overall ranking, 5th in the CCHA, converting at a 17.4% clip. BGSU converts at a paltry 10.9% rate, last in the CCHA and 56th nationally.

PK: The Wolverines rank 25th nationally at an 82.3% kill rate (3rd in conference) while BGSU is not far behind at 29th nationally (8th in the CCHA) at 81.9%.

PIM’s: Michigan sits 36th in the nation in taking penalties (3rd best in the CCHA) with 13.2 minutes per game average while BGSU is slightly worse overall (26th) with 14 minutes per game average (8th best in the CCHA).

Keys To The Weekend:
Bergeron was pretty direct in his comments to the press this week. He said that the Falcons will need to “take care of the puck” in all zones because Michigan’s transition game is so fast. He knows that they are not as skilled offensively as Michigan and will try to force the Wolverines into turnovers- or limit their offensive zone chances. He also stressed that the Falcons must stay out of the penalty box because Michigan is dangerous enough 5×5 let alone with a PP. Sound advice and easier said than done.

The Wolverines, on the other hand, know that BGSU will come into Yost with nothing to fear which will put pressure on Michigan. Bergeron stated that the Falcons actually do have something to lose, since they proved to themselves last week that they can go into a hostile environment and win. Bergeron did admit that his young team has not experienced anything like Yost before, though, especially with what is at stake.

Red Berenson was quick to remind fans during his radio show on Tuesday that Michigan will be prepared just as if they were playing Miami or Notre Dame. They need to respect the Falcons and work hard because Bowling Green will not give up anything easy. Defenseman Greg Pateryn added that the series in October with BG was against probably the most physical team Michigan had played all season. (In that series, Michigan was 3-9 on the PP while BG was 2-17. Michigan racked up 20 penalties for 62 minutes and the Falcons earned 11 penalties for 25 minutes.)

To move onto the semifinals at JLA, Michigan must take advantage of their offensive chances and put BG on their heels early. BG is going to play a trapping, sticky style in an attempt to produce offense by counter attacking. They will be dangerous if Michigan falls behind since BG has the capability to shut down opponent’s offense, especially if Hammond is on. If Michigan opens up a lead in these games, the Falcons will have to break from their plan and become more aggressive- something that the stats indicate will work against them- especially if they are forced into taking penalties. The good news for the Falcons is, Michigan rarely makes teams pay on the PP, and the Falcons seem to have decent PK units. The bad news is this is the only category that favors BG outside of their goal-tending.

Prediction:
Michigan’s apparent luck drawing BGSU over say Ohio State or Lake State is a minimal advantage. If Michigan can get the offense going, they’ll easily roll. I don’t expect that type of series, though especially since Michigan will be without one of its top guns (Louie Caporusso will be out this weekend.) Caporusso was 1-4-5 against BGSU earlier this season. Carl Hagelin followed at 1-2-3. Jon Merrill and David Wohlberg also tallied three points in their early season sweep.

Michigan’s depth should provide enough offense and the team is comfortable playing in close games at Yost. They’ll get enough scoring and shut down a BG attack that relies on their top line and a trapping, fore-checking attack to generate their offense. Michigan wins 3-1 and 2-1 to move on to the Joe next weekend.

My (revised) predictions for the other quarterfinal series:

#8 LSSU @ #2 Notre Dame:
CCHA Second Team (and All Rookie Team) forwards Tynan and Lee (5th and 6th in CCHA scoring) for Notre Dame look to solve All Rookie Team goaltender Kapalka from LSSU. The Irish swept the Lakers back in October and should repeat. Notre Dame, 3-2 and 3-1.

#7 Alaska @ #3 Miami:
Miami brings the offensive thunder with CCHA First Team forwards Miele, Camper and Smith along with Second Team Defenseman Wideman and Honorable Mention Forward Cannone. (Miami boasts the top three scorers in the conference and top scorer in the country.) Alaska counters with Second Team CCHA goaltender Greenham and Honorable Mention defenseman Sova. I like Alaska’s chances to extend the series to three games, though, but that’s about it. Miami 3-1, Alaska 2-1, Miami 4-1.

#5 Ferris State @ #4 Western Michigan:
This is an intriguing series since WMU is battling to stay in the top 16 PWR and hold a NCAA bid. Ferris boasts of the CCHA’s First Team and conference leading netminder (Nagle) as well as First Team Defenseman Redmond to go with an offense that is, well, non-existent. The Bronco’s counter with All Rookie forward Balisy. I like WMU to hold off the defensive minded Bulldogs in three, 4-2 WMU, 1-0 FSU and 3-2 WMU.

This would then fall in line with my CCHA semifinal predictions:

Michigan would then be matched up with WMU at JLA
Notre Dame would play Miami at JLA.
Michigan will defeat WMU and Miami will defeat ND.
Michigan will defeat Miami to win the CCHA tourney.

Yost Bits:
– Michigan has won 21 consecutive CCHA series with 18 of those series being sweeps.
– Michigan has not missed the CCHA semi-finals at JLA since 1989.
– The Wolverines have won both the CCHA Regular Season and Playoff titles six separate times, with the
last one coming in 2007-08.
– Michigan’s six game winning streak is the longest since their playoff run last season when they ripped off seven straight wins.
-Michigan led the CCHA in defense posting 2.04 goals against average. Goaltender Shawn Hunwick led the CCHA with a 1.95 GAA and a .931 save % (since he played in more than 50% of the games this season versus Miami’s two headed goaltending attack.)
– Jon Merrill is the first freshman defenseman since Jack Johnson to score 20 points in his first season (7-14-21.)
– Carl Hagelin led Michigan in points with a 17-28-45 line, good for 4th in the CCHA and 13th nationally.
– Chris Brown is on an offensive roll, potting 6-5-11 in the past 13 games.
– Louie Caporusso leads Michigan in total points against the Falcons with a career 4-7-11. He’ll have to wait until next week to move back into the lineup. Fellow Wolverines Brown (2-3-5), Hagelin (2-6-8), Wohlberg (2-6-8) and Rust (4-1-5) all have solid results against Bowling Green.

Michigan retained the overall 4th spot in the Pairwise Rankings, suggesting that they would earn a #1 seed in one of the regionals. It would be my prediction that this would earn Michigan a top seed in St. Louis. They would potentially be joined by #2 seed Denver, #3 seed Notre Dame and #4 seed Colorado College.
Of course, this will change each week until the playoffs are concluded. The brackets will be announced on Sunday March 20 at 11:00 a.m. on ESPN 2.

Line Up For Awards:
GBMWolverine is proud to salute these Michigan hockey award recipients so far this season:

CCHA Scholar-Athlete – Carl Hagelin
CCHA All-Rookie Team Defense – Jon Merrill
CCHA All Conference First Team – Carl Hagelin
CCHA All Conference Second Team – Jon Merrill
CCHA Honorable Mention- Defense – Brandon Burlon
Great Lakes Invitational Awards: MVP – Luke Glendening. All GLI Team: Glendening, Carl Hagelin and Shawn Hunwick
CCHA Players Of The Week: Hagelin (2) – Offense. Hunwick (2) Goaltender honors. Merrill (2)-Rookie. Lee Moffie (1)-Defense.

Congratulations! Stay tuned to the forum for the latest Michigan Hockey news… Go Blue!

Written by GBMWolverine Staff

Go Blue — Wear Maize!