Mailbag question: Where does the hockey program wind-up?
Posted at 8:00am — 3/1/2011
Mailbag question: Where does the hockey program wind-up?
GBMWolverine,
I don’t really follow college hockey that close until this time of year where the playoffs and the NCAA tournament coming up, but love your coverage of the Michigan hockey program this year and read all your articles on the front page. You guys cover the hockey program very well and better than most sites which includes premium sites.
My question is the pair rankings and how does it work with Michigan this year.
Does winning the CCHA regular season help Michigan and will it be determined by the CCHA playoffs?
Can they get a number 1 seed and where do you think they might end up?
What do you guys think of Michigan’s chances this season of getting back to the Frozen Four and possible winning it all?
Thanks guys!
Fred B.
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Hi Fred:
Thank you for the kind words. GBMWolverine has given me the opportunity to cover U-M hockey. It’s a clear passion of mine and I enjoy presenting it to our readers.
Yostmeister
Answering your first question can be a bit technical. Let me give you a rather simplified explanation.
The NCAA hockey committee that oversees the rules for the tournament, set up a complex system of formula calculations for qualifying the 58 teams in Division I hockey.
If you want to understand the in depth nuts and bolts of how it works, then read this:
then, if you want even more detail, read this handy Q&A on the selection process:
Part of the article is truncated, but you can get the general idea with what is provided.
So, now you have a guide for when I refer to PWR, RPI, TUC etc.
In summary, the PWR is a calculation consisting of the RPI, TUC (team under consideration, which requires a comparing team to be at .500 in RPI), head to head comparisons and how well your team did against the common opponents (COP) of the other teams your team is being compared to. The RPI is a value assigned that is composed of three components: a team’s winning % (which makes up 25% of the total), their opponents’ winning % (21%) and their opponents’ opponents’ winning % (54%).
So, when a comparison is made, it can change based not only on your team’s performance on a given night, but also factors against what many other teams are doing as well. It considers history, strength of schedule, opponent performance and factors consistency throughout the season.
Michigan is currently holding the 4th overall PWR position in the country. This equates to a probable #1 seed in the NCAA tournament. They hold the 5th best RPI and 15th best SoS, and the 6th best winning % in the country. In other words, their PWR position tells me that they win comparison factors against 54 other teams in the country. At this time, though, the TUC cutoff is at the 32nd best team because every team below that team is under a .500 RPI percentage. So Michigan is only having their statistics compared with these 32 other teams. So if a team that Michigan has beaten and holds a favorable comparison against (for instance, Ohio State, which they are 3-1 against this season) is below the RPI “TUC cliff”, those comparison wins cannot be used to improve Michigan’s PWR.
Michigan’s position would strengthen further if Ohio State would climb above a .500 RPI. This is an example of how dynamic this system is- teams can actually drop or rise in PWR status without even playing!
Since Michigan won the CCHA Regular Season title and finished in the top five of the CCHA, they will have a bye next weekend, while six other teams in the CCHA will play a first round best of three series. This will impact the PWR as well as the other NCAA games being played. So, Michigan’s position could alter depending on whether the outcomes of those games favor Michigan’s PWR or not. Some teams may climb over Michigan based on those results. Chances are, based on the comparisons, Michigan cannot climb any higher than 4th overall- unless the teams ahead of them- Yale, North Dakota and Boston College- have their PWR negatively impacted AND they lose games. Some of those teams will be in action next weekend, so significant movement may occur- and teams below Michigan have the chance to overtake Michigan, too. Michigan could get a boost, though, if Ohio State beats Lake Superior State in their first round CCHA tournament series match-up. This would probably make OSU a “TUC” again.
The bottom line is, the PWR will be dynamic until each conference tournament champion is determined. Until then, it is hard to gauge where Michigan would end up seeded in the NCAA tourney. The best thing to hope for is that Michigan takes care of its own business- winning their quarterfinal best of three series at Yost arena against an unknown opponent as of yet, and then winning the semi-final and CCHA tournament championship game at Joe Louis Arena in Detroit. If they do that, they will be guaranteed an automatic bid to the NCAA tourney (as opposed to an at-large bid, which they probably would get anyway if they get to Detroit) and a very high seed.
You also asked how winning the CCHA regular season title helps them. First of all, winning a title is special for the guys. They will forever be immortalized by the banner hanging at Yost Arena. Second, winning the conference doesn’t guarantee an auto bid to the NCAA tourney, but sets them up for the easiest road to the CCHA tournament championship, which does offer the auto-bid. They will be heavily favored against the lowest remaining seeded opponent in the quarterfinals, then will avoid playing Notre Dame or Miami in the semi-final game. This is because Notre Dame and Miami will play each other being the #2 and #3 conference seeds, IF they get to JLA. I won’t say that Michigan’s opponent in the semi’s will be “easy”, but it will be better than the road either Notre Dame or Miami will have to take to win the championship. There are several quality teams that could end up downtown also- Western Michigan, Alaska or Ferris State to name a few. Those teams are potential semi final match-ups for Michigan- not easy games, but winnable.
To your last question, getting back to the Frozen Four every year is a goal that Coach Berenson always sets out to achieve. This team, as he describes, is not as offensively gifted as previous Michigan teams, but has the ability to stay with any team in college hockey. They play a very sound defensive game and have gotten terrific goal-tending. Are they are strong as Boston College, North Dakota or some of the other perennial powers? Probably not, but it isn’t always the best team that wins in a one and done playoff format; It is the team that plays the best, gets the timely goals, plays smart hockey, stays strong defensively and has good goal-tending. Michigan has the capability of making a long run if they play the same way that they closed the season out. This isn’t Michigan’s best team, but it is a team full of quality guys that, when they execute to their level of talent, can win a national championship. Remember the NCAA tourney only consists of 16 teams, so it will take one team winning four straight games to do it. This team certainly can do that.
Thanks again for the questions and Go Blue!
Written by GBMWolverine Staff
Go Blue — Wear Maize!