Big Ten Basketball Heads Down the Stretch

Posted at 12:00pm — 2/7/2011

Big Ten Basketball Heads Down the Stretch

So, how are the early season predictions turning out? Pretty good; let us take a quick look.

Two teams were listed as being a national force and being elite in the Big Ten, Ohio State and Michigan State. One is on target, and the other is the surprise of this season, perhaps the surprise of the nation.

Ohio State has the best talent in the country, hands down. However, the difference in ability is within reach of many teams on a good day, and it only takes one loss in a tournament to wipe out the national title many have anointed upon the Buckeyes. Ohio State has the freshman of the year and maybe the national player of the year in the big and physical Sullinger. But this team has so much more. A core of outstanding upperclassman has blended perfectly with OSU’s fab freshmen. David Lighty, a player who would be the number one guy on almost every Division 1 team, leads this group. Lighty can do it all and has surprised many by staying for four years. He has a real shot at being a 2nd round NBA pick, and will certainly get a shot at summer camps. Big wing Jon Diebler is having a very good year. With defenses having to plan and play for Sullinger, Lighty, and Buford, Diebler will get open looks on the wing, and the shots usually fall. Diebler is physically big helping the overall Ohio State defense. William Buford is Ohio State’ version of a microwave. There are times he can heat it up, and even with the other scorers on this roster, Buford may be the best pure shooter.

Aaron Craft and DeShaun Thomas will carry the Buckeyes in the future. Both are talents beyond freshman status. Thomas is big, athletic and can score. Craft is the best defensive freshman seen by these eyes for quite a while. He is openly being compared to John Havlicek, a status near deity.

And so what about the Spartans, once presumed in this corner to put it together during the conference schedule even after a rough non-conference start? It is not too late for a run but there are miles to go to catch up. Take away a couple of close wins and the Spartans would be in dire straights. Here is a team that started off the year ranked third, with tons of returning veterans and the ship has taken on water. Michigan State has gone from elite to being forced to play very good ball to make the tournament. Things need to get better quickly, because no one is going to feel sorry for Michigan State. Sloppy ball handling, slow movement on offense, and just ok shooting have not helped the cause. Neither has a dismissal and the inability to dominate teams inside even with two very nice bookend forwards. Take note: Tom Izzo has not forgotten how to coach; this scenario has got be to one of the most disturbing episodes of his coaching life.

The only question left is will the Spartans regroup, and if so to what extent? Can defense and better shooting overcome bad chemistry, bad hands, and offensive sloppiness? The big loss to Wisconsin Sunday only reinforces how difficult this train wreck will be to fix.

The second tier of teams is pretty much dead on target. Teams picked to finish in the middle of the pack and likely make the tournament were Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Minnesota. All of these teams will need a decent finish to cement a tournament spot without sweating excepting Purdue. Michigan State now joins this group, maybe only briefly, making seven teams with tournament hopes. But the Spartans may soon slide even to the third tier to be discussed later.

Purdue is a very sound team with a great twosome in JuJuan Johnson and E’Twaun Moore. The Boilers play hard, especially on defense, and at 18-5 they are in the tournament barring an 0 for February. Purdue will play hard in the tournament and may be a threat.

Wisconsin is playing very sound and beating up on good teams. Jon Leuer is All Big Ten First Team in our perspective and Jordan Taylor should get some votes for 1st or 2nd team as well. At 17-5 the Badgers are in the same boat as Purdue, almost in, and soon will be.

Illinois continues to be Illinois, unpredictable that is. So the Illini will try to take a balanced roster and squeeze enough out to get a tournament bid. This one is up in the air. A record of 15-8 makes for doubt. Stay tuned, the Big Ten tournament may be the deciding factor.

Minnesota is slipping somewhat and with the loss of a starting point guard is in danger of going on the bubble. Minnesota has won 16 games and may need to get to 20 with the preseason schedule the Gophers played. Still in good shape but not close to a lock is accurate. Minnesota has great size and against teams like Michigan, Iowa, Indiana, and Penn State, can make some hay going into the tournament barn.

The third tier of teams were those that need help from others slipping to have a chance at getting into the NCAA. Those teams include Northwestern, Penn State, and Michigan and the predictions look right on the button. Northwestern is hanging on to a chance, but must finish hot. The Wildcats have 14 wins and will need 19 or 20 to get a sniff. This is doable but time is running out. The good news for Northwestern is that the next five games are winnable; the bad news is the five games can also be lost. This will be Northwestern’s season starting this week at Michigan. The Wildcats probably need to go 4-1.

Penn State is now 5-6 in the league, but only 12-10 overall. This probably eliminates the Lions from consideration, barring a miracle run the rest of he way. The loss to Michigan (two games by the way) may have sealed the deal. The Lions are hurting for depth and size, and continue to rely on the fortunes of Taylor Battle.

Michigan looked dead and ready to join Indiana and Iowa just two weeks ago, but the win over the Spartans seemed to provide spark. Recent wins over Iowa and Penn State have helped. The Wolverines have turned into a three-player core, Morris, Hardaway, and Novak, with support from Stu Douglass. Michigan will receive help at guard next year, but again, as of now, no help inside is on the horizon. It is a good thing that Novak can rebound because others cannot. Michigan plays some games in the next two weeks that are winnable and may surpass the 16-17 win plateau predicted earlier, which remains a reasonable estimate for this young team. Young or not, Michigan better get some size and at least enough of an inside game to pull in the defenders. Like Penn State, Michigan will have to win the Big Ten tournament to go dancing.

Iowa and Indiana are getting better, and both have some solid young players, especially Indiana. Both are capable of winning most games at home and visitors need to beware. Both the Hoosiers and Hawkeyes are waiting for teams like Michigan to slip up enough to get out of the Big Ten basement.

The national question surrounding the Big Ten is whether or not OSU can run the table going into the tournament and beyond. Like everything else we will soon know.

Written by GBMWolverine Staff

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