Michigan Hockey: Wolverines Fall Flat Against MSU; Face Showdown At Miami

Posted at 8:00am — 2/4/2011

Michigan Hockey: Wolverines Fall Flat Against MSU; Face Showdown At Miami

#8 MICHIGAN (17-7-4, 14-5-1-0) 2nd CCHA vs. #13 Miami (14-9-5, 11-7-4-0) 3rd CCHA
2/4/11 7:35 p.m. & 2/5 5:05 p.m. Cady Arena, Oxford, Oh.
TV: Friday: CBSC Sports. Saturday: Fox Sports Detroit

Rewinding Michigan’s Last Game Action:
The Wolverines dropped a 2-1 decision to Michigan State last Saturday in a tight, listless effort.
Neither team lit the lamp for the first 39 minutes of the contest until MSU struck first on the powerplay. Michigan lost a faceoff deep in their zone and failed to clear. A centering pass ping-ponged off of a couple skates in the slot until Jake Chelios snuck a shot along the ice just inside the post past screened Michigan netminder Shawn Hunwick. Michigan’s Louie Caporusso came right back with 16 seconds left in the period, weaving his way in the slot and driving a shot past MSU goaltender Will Yanakeff. The game stayed tied until 12:26 of the third period when MSU’s Joey Shean rebound goal was not only his first in two seasons, but the game winner. Michigan fought back, though and forced a penalty shot. Kevin Lynch was stoned, though and Michigan struggled to produce any further scoring chances. Greg Pateryn ripped a shot off the post in the last minute, but that was as close as they came.

The demoralizing loss pushed Michigan back to second place in the standings, one point behind Notre Dame (with two games in hand) and four points ahead of their next opponent, Miami (with two games in hand.)

Yostmeister Three Stars:
1. Will Yanakeff, MSU- stopped 34 shots in his second victory over Michigan
2. Shawn Hunwick, Michigan- was solid in producing 28 saves for the Wolverines
3. Mac Bennett, Michigan- played perhaps one of his best games of the season and is showing more confidence.

What’s Missin’ At Miami?
The Redhawks come into this pivotal weekend series against the Wolverines as a team loaded on the offensive front, but apparently struggling on the backend. They have been an enigma all season, and the fingers have been pointed squarely on the guys that carried them last season: their two fine net-minders.
Let’s talk about the offense, first though.

Miami is led by their top line of senior Andy Miele (15-34-49), senior Carter Camper (14-32-46) and sophomore Reilly Smith (19-16-35). Miele and Camper are not only Hobey Baker candidates, but are one and two in the nation in scoring. Smith, the younger brother of former Wisconsin Badger and current Grand Rapids Griffin (Detroit Red Wings) Brendan Smith, leads the team in goals and is tenth nationally in scoring. All three are snipers and are very adept to finding defensive seams to exploit. They also lead the charge on Miami’s 3rd ranked powerplay (1st in the CCHA), clipping along at nearly one out of every four chances they get.

The Hawks are not just a one line team, though. There is balanced scoring across all four lines- but two other forwards stand out- senior Pat Cannone is an underrated two way forward that has added 11-15-26 on the second line. Junior Alden Hirshfeld (11-8-19) also adds scoring punch- and plunged the decisive dagger into Michigan fans’ hearts last March by scoring the game winner in double OT at the 2010 Midwest regional.

Miami is only second to Notre Dame in national scoring, lighting the lamp 101 times, while yielding 68 goals. Unfortunately, there have been too many games where those goals against came at critical times. Which leads me to the dichotomy- why is their defensive game so erratic?

The Hawks are led on the blueline by five experienced defensemen: juniors Will Weber, Cameron Schilling, and Chris Wideman. All three play with an edge and are physical. Wideman (2-15-17) has an enormous shot that adds another dimension to the offense. Senior Vincent Loverde and sophomore Joe Hartman are steady and smart and have developed into solid skating stay at home workhorses. BUT, Miami has proliferated so well on offense that the cohesion between the forwards and the defenders has often stunted Miami’s ability to secure games when it really matters. Lapses in coverage and positioning have hurt them this season, as has the propensity for taking careless penalties. It may be an area that Michigan can exploit without sacrificing their own defensive posture.

As I mentioned earlier, the goal-tending has been the biggest question mark this season for Miami- after leading the country in just about every category last season. The two headed monster that is Connor Knapp (5-5-4, 2.23 GAA, .901 save %) and Cody Reichard (9-4-1, 2.31 GAA, .901) has come back to earth a little this season. Knapp has struggled in his outings, but really hasn’t been awful. (It is similar to Michigan’s Friday night woes.) Reichard has been more consistent, but has been prone to giving up weak goals in tight games.

Miami is and will be a factor in the CCHA- but has not regained the swagger they had last season. They are likely to light it up one night and be shut out the next. My own theory is that the rout they suffered in last season’s Frozen Four match with Boston College exploited their relative lack of speed and propensity to sell out in the offensive zone. It shook the confidence of their goaltending and other teams have exploited them as well. But, they are still dangerous and hold a similar effect on opponents that come into Oxford. It’s best to play a solid defensive game and hope that their gunners are bested by better goaltending.

Tale Of The Tape:
The Wolverines enter their last eight games in an effort to lock down their first CCHA regular season banner since the 2007-08 campaign. The gauntlet begins against Miami and should test their gaudy CCHA defensive numbers.

Michigan levels out at 14th in the country in scoring with a 3.43 goals per game average. The Red Hawks on the other hand, lead the CCHA in scoring and average 3.61 GPG which is 7th nationally. The Wolverines still lead the CCHA with a 1.90 goals against average and give up a total 2.29 gpg (12th) nationally. Meanwhile, Miami has averaged 2.43 gpg allowed, (15th in the nation) which is about a half of a goal more than last season.

The real gaps are in the special teams. Michigan is giving up less PP chances, but is still struggling to kill penalties consistently. Their PP is not daunting, but is still firing at 19.5% (22nd) nationally. Miami, as alluded to above, is converting at 24.8% (3rd) nationally and at 25.5% in the CCHA (1st). Chances are Miami, given the chance, will pound home a few PPG’s if Michigan is not extremely disciplined.

Michigan’s PK is at 81.1% (35th), but has done their work during the conference schedule, holding 3rd. Miami is one of the better penalty killing teams at 86.5% (8th) nationally and 2nd in the CCHA.

Michigan has reduced their penalties per game average to 13.7 minutes, good for 27th best in the country. Miami doesn’t fear taking penalties mostly because, like Michigan, they prefer to play a physical style that emphasizes a steady forecheck. They average 17.5 mpg, (7th) worst in the country. It may be an area Michigan needs to exploit.

Shawn Hunwick (10-5-4, 2.33 GAA, .923 save %) continues to lead the CCHA with a 1.76 GAA and a .941 save %. He has only allowed five goals in the previous two meetings against the Hawks, and has to be the factor for Michigan to take points this weekend. Bryan Hogan (7-2, 2.11 GAA, .923 save %) will dress and serve as Hunwick’s backup for this weekend.

Keys To Victory:
– It is obvious that Michigan is not going to completely stop Miami’s top line. But, limiting their chances and sacrificing some offense may be in order.
– Stay out of the penalty box. The mix between Miami’s PP and Michigan’s luke warm PK is lethal.
– Hunwick must outplay Miami’s goaltending (presumably Reichart and Knapp will split again). Hogan is still not completely ready to see action in a series of this magnitude.
– Michigan’s best players must execute offensively. Hagelin virtually disappeared last weekend after carrying the forwards on his back the last ten games.
– Utilize the defensemen’s offensive skills- but beware of the counterattack. Capitalize on special team chances and stop turning the puck over in transition.
– Miami has a glass jaw- so jumping on them early may place undue pressure on their go to players.

Prediction:
I feel confident that Michigan will play better than last Saturday. I am hoping, though, that they don’t wait until Saturday to do it. The ramifications are severe if they get swept. It’s gut check time and time for the seniors to lead. Miami is a desperate team that will throw everything they have at Michigan. Still, I think we have more depth than Miami, which will earn them a split.

Friday: Miami, 3-2.
Saturday: Michigan 4-3.

Yost Bits:
– Last week’s loss snapped a few streaks: Carl Hagelin saw his nine game point streak stopped, Michigan lost for the first time in five games, The Wolverines saw their winning streak on Saturdays this season halted and the Maize and Blue’s senior class lost for the first time in their career to MSU at the Joe.
– Michigan was 1-3 last season against Miami, with their only victory in the CCHA Championship game.
– The Wolverines are 1-4-1 in their last three visits to Oxford. Miami has swept two of the past three series against Michigan, including last year’s double dunking at Yost. Michigan also swept Miami in 2007-08.
– Louie Caporusso notched his 8th goal of the season last weekend
– Scooter Vaughn added an assist to raise his total to 9-5-14, a career high.
– Bryan Hogan continues to battle back from a bad groin injury and is targeting a return to the net in two weeks against WMU at Yost.
– Miami is 4-4-2 in their last ten games, while suffering a sweep against OSU, splitting with MSU and tying Notre Dame (both teams won shootouts) all on the road the past three weekends.
– Miami is 6-4-3 against ranked opponents this season.
– If the NCAA playoffs were to begin today, Michigan, Notre Dame and Western Michigan would make the playoffs, while Miami would not. It makes this weekend even more compelling, especially since Miami has only six regular season games left.
– Michigan has yielded the most goals this season during the second period, while Miami has scored the most (40) and yielded the least (22) during the second frame.
– Michigan has scored 96 goals this season and has given up 64, for a +32. Miami is a +33.
– Michigan added new 2012 and 2013 commitments last weekend. More on that at season’s end.

Stay tuned for the latest Michigan news… Go Blue!

Written by GBMWolverine Staff

Go Blue — Wear Maize!