GBMWolverine: Michigan Hockey -- Michigan Double Up Nanooks -- Michigan vs. MSU -- In Detroit

Posted at 6:00am — 1/29/2011

GBMWolverine: Michigan Hockey — Michigan Double Up Nanooks — Michigan vs. MSU — In Detroit

#6 MICHIGAN (17-6-4, 14-4-1-0) 1st CCHA vs MSU (10-13-4, 6-11-2-0) 10th CCHA
1/29/11 8:05 p.m. Joe Louis Arena
TV: Fox Sports Detroit

Rewinding Michigan’s Last Game Action:
Michigan received outstanding goal-tending from Shawn Hunwick and benefited from missed opportunities by the Nanooks to sweep last weekend’s games at Yost arena. On Friday, the game was minutes old when an unfortunate skate malfunction on the part of defense-man Mac Bennett led to a clear-cut 2×0 break on Hunwick. He forced the Alaskan forward wide before having the shot glance off of the side of the wide open net. Michigan was outplayed and out chanced for most of the first period, but escaped with a scoreless tie. The game stayed that way until the 11:09 mark of the second period, when Lee Moffie finished a pretty 3×1 break. He accepted a Carl Hagelin drop pass in the slot and drilled a high shot over Nanooks goaltender Scott Greenham’s blocker. Jon Merrill put the game away at 8:40 of the third period on a nice snap shot from the point that saw its way through a maze of players past Greenham. Michigan held the Nooks off the board to secure a 2-0 shutout. Hunwick stopped 37 shots for the victory.

Saturday night was a wide open affair that displayed sloppy defense on both sides. Merrill got the offense rolling early, wristing a shot from the top of the circle past Greenham within the first two minutes of the game. Alaska came back to tie the game on a turnover that led to a 2×1 break. Matt Rust scored his first goal since November on a deflection of a Lee Moffie shot to give the Maize and Blue a 2-1 lead at the break. Alaska continued to press the Wolverines and tied the game five minutes into the second stanza. Chris Brown scored a PPG on his own rebound to give Michigan the lead again, but just over a minute later the Wolverines surrendered a SHG to tie the game at 3-3. Scooter Vaughn broke the tie off of a Ben Winnett face-off win, as he moved from his position at the circle, gathered the puck and quickly snapped a far side shot inside the post past Greenham at 13:33 to give Michigan the lead for good. Neither team tallied in the third period, but Alaska held Michigan to one shot on goal and had a goal waived off due to goaltender interference with about four minutes left.

Michigan had to kill off a late 5×3 advantage for over a minute to preserve the win. Alaska fired 39 shots at Hunwick and had numerous other chances skitter just wide or bounce freely in the crease. Coach Berenson said that “we gave them too much” and lamented about how his team probably benefited from just enough effort, luck and solid goal-tending to secure the sweep.

Michigan leaped over Notre Dame in the standings and took a two point lead going into their single meeting this weekend downtown against Michigan State. Alaska returns home in eighth place after dropping three of their four games during their annual January trip to the great lakes area. They experienced their first pointless weekend in two years- quite a feat for a team that probably suffers from the time difference and travel more than any other team in NCAA hockey (other than the WCHA’s Alaska-Anchorage team.)

Yostmeister Three Stars For The Weekend:
1. Shawn Hunwick, Michigan- stopped 73 of 76 shots in route to the sweep and his third shutout of the season.
2. Carl Hagelin, Michigan- Five assists last weekend and yeoman’s work on the penalty kill.
3. Jon Merrill, Michigan- solid defensive work to go with his two goals.

Michigan State Of Dismay:
Michigan concludes its season series with the Spartans on Saturday night at Joe Louis Arena. The Spartans are 3-3-1 in January, (4-6 in their last ten) starting the month with the home and home split with the Wolverines, taking a win and a tie against Lake State and splitting at home against Miami last weekend. They are fresh off of a 2-1 loss against Ferris State on Thursday night in Big Rapids.

The big news this past week has been the announcement made by Spartan head coach Rick Comley, who started his weekly press conference by stating his intention to retire effective at the end of this season. Speculation has it that MSU A.D. Mark Hollis is forcing Comley out after the program has struggled under his direction the past few seasons. Comley oozed sadness in his press conference, and soberly suggested that his frustration about last season’s early departures of Andrew Rowe, Corey Tropp and Jeff Petry as well as increased recruiting pressures have factored into his decision. He tersely suggested that Hollis and he came to a mutual agreement to move in a different direction. Comley is 4th all time in NCAA wins with 778 and has two national championships to his credit as well as an NAIA championship while at his first stop at Lake Superior State. He barely missed out winning the 1980 championship at NMU, before losing to North Dakota in the final. He won the 1991 title at Northern Michigan prior to his 2007 title with the Spartans. He has been at MSU for nine of his thirty eight years behind the bench.

I firmly expect an emotional scene at JLA on Saturday as this may be the last meeting between Comley and Red Berenson, unless they meet in the CCHA playoffs. Expect MSU’s best effort to send Comley out with a victory over their archrivals. Something will definitely have to give though considering the following:

-The Wolverines are 11-6-1 over the Spartans since 2007-08, and are 22-17-5 versus MSU at Joe Louis Arena. This senior class has yet to lose to the Spartans downtown (4-0) and the program is 5-0-1 in its last six versus MSU at JLA. Michigan’s senior class holds an overall 15-2 record at JLA, with those two losses coming against Notre Dame in the CCHA Championship in March, 2009 and against RPI in the Great Lakes Invitational in December, 2009.

– Michigan is 11-0-2 on Saturday this season, outscoring opponents 54-24.
– Michigan has won a season high five straight and nine out of the past ten games by an average score of 4-2.
– Michigan has only allowed 3 goals in each of the past two weekends and leads the CCHA in scoring defense, only allowing 1.89 goals against per game.
– Michigan has shut out the Spartans twice (both on Saturday), the first time this has occurred in the same season since 1952-53.

MSU is still led by junior Brett Perlini (15-10-25), sophomore Derek Grant (4-19-23), sophomore defender and Captain Torey Krug (8-13-21), senior Dustin Gazley (9-9-18) and junior Daultan Leveille (7-9-16).
Junior Drew Palmisano (7-11-3, 2.98 GAA & .903 save %) is sharing netminder duties with freshman Will Yanakeff (3-1, 2.03 GAA & .929 save %). My hunch is that Yanakeff may get the nod after his terrific performance against the Wolverines earlier this month. Palmisano has played welled of late though, in a split against Miami at home and Thursday night’s narrow 2-1 loss to Ferris State.

The Spartans are mired in tenth place and are trying to make a push for a higher conference finish and possibly a run in the CCHA playoffs. The Comley situation just raises the emotional stakes for this tilt.

Tale Of The Tape:
The Wolverines get a respite this weekend, only playing one game against arguably their weakest opponent (on paper) remaining on their schedule.

Michigan slipped to 10th in the country (3rd in the CCHA) in scoring with a 3.52 goals per game average. The Spartans struggle on offense averaging 2.62 goals per game, tied for 36th in the nation. The Wolverines have improved their defensive play, albeit against low scoring offenses the past few weeks, giving up an average of 2.30 gpg (11th). They also maintained their #1 defensive ranking in the CCHA (see above.) Meanwhile, MSU has averaged 2.92 gpg allowed, (32nd in the nation) which is uncharacteristic for a Spartan team.

Neither team brags about their special teams, although Michigan’s power-play has been adequate as of late, converting at a 19.8% clip (19th nationally, 3rd in the CCHA.) MSU’s PP lags at 17.1%, 32nd in the country. The Wolverine’s have emphasized their penalty killing in practice and it paid off last weekend as they shut down Alaska’s PP eight straight times, including that game changing 5×3 late last Saturday night. Still, Michigan’s PK is only killing 81.6% of their chances (35th), but has fared better in conference, holding down the third best percentage. MSU’s PK is abysmal at 78.4% (48th) and is probably one of the areas that have really hurt the Spartans.

Neither team takes an inordinate amount of penalties now, with Michigan averaging 13.9 MPG (27th) and MSU averaging 12.9 MPG (39th). These numbers tend to skew up when playing each other, though.

The real game changer will be goal-tending. Palmisano has been average against the Wolverines, which is why I tend to believe Yanakeff – a big rangy goaltender – will get the nod. Shawn Hunwick (10-4-4) on the other hand, further reduced his CCHA leading save % (.942) and still holds down 2nd in the conference in GAA (1.73). His performance last weekend earned him #1 star in both games as he claimed his 2nd and 3rd personal best in saves.

Keys To Victory:
– Michigan rolls if they score early and take away the emotional benefit the Spartans have of playing for their coach.

-Limit the shots. Michigan has given up too many shots on goal and second chance opportunities the past two weekends and was only fortunate that they were not playing teams that finish their offensive chances better.

– Stop turning the puck over and giving opponents easy scoring opportunities. Berenson wasn’t pleased with this aspect last weekend and certainly the Spartans would appreciate the charity also.
– Keep the balanced scoring rolling. Michigan needs more output from guys like Caporusso and Rust, but offensive contributions from Treais, Lynch and Glendening are needed in these types of games, too.

Yostmeister’s Prediction: Aside from the importance of securing rivalry bragging rights, this game is magnified by Michigan’s CCHA title aspirations as well as how it will maintain their strong NCAA playoff position. The Wolverines seem to be able to find ways to win lately even without their best performance. The danger of looking ahead to an away showdown series with Miami, though, is a real possibility.

Michigan keeps the Saturday Night Fever going though – in heart stopping fashion. U-M 5 … MSU 4.

Yost Bits:
– Congratulations to Defense-man Jon Merrill who was named the CCHA Rookie Player of the Week (two goals) and Carl Hagelin who was named CCHA Offensive Player of the Week for his five assists last weekend. Merrill is tied with Brandon Burlon in defensemen scoring, each having tallied 17 points from the blue line. Merrill also leads all CCHA defense-men in conference scoring with 15 points. Hagelin extended his point streak to nine games.

– Carl Hagelin continues to lead the Wolverines in offense with 13-22-35 and a +17 rating. Other leaders: Caporusso, 7-14-21 (+12), Rust, 4-15-19 (+9), Wohlberg, 11-6-17 (+3), Burlon, 5-12-17 (+10), Merrill, 7-10-17 (+8), Vaughn, 9-4-13 (+5).

– Michigan is 15-1-1 when scoring three or more goals in a game this season. The Wolverines have scored three goals in the same period nine times this season.

-Michigan improved to 8-4-2 against ranked teams.

– Fourteen Wolverines have reached double digits in points- no other team in Division I hockey has as many. Twenty One players have scored this season for Michigan and ten players have game winning goals.

– Bryan Hogan has finally practiced on consecutive days but is still being listed by Coach Berenson as “week to week”. It is feared that Hogan’s injury is worse than expected and his recovery has been extremely slow. There is a real possibility that Hogan could miss the remainder of the season or attempt to play at less than 100%.

– Defenseman Lee Moffie has set a personal best in goals (4) and points (8). He has earned all of his goals and two of his assists in the past seven games. Other players with personal bests: Pateryn (2-8-10), Vaughn (9-4-13), Burlon (5-12-17), Lynch (6 goals) and Treais (7assists and 13 total points).

– The Wolverines defense accounted for three of the six goals plus four assists last weekend and now has an impressive 20 goals and 52 assists for 72 points this season.

– The Wolverines are an astounding 14-0-1 when giving up two or less goals in games this season.

Michigan is currently 5th in the Pairwise rankings, affected by Ferris State’s sweep at the hands of NMU last weekend and their victory Thursday night over MSU. Ferris is barely hanging on to their “TUC” status with a .5028 RPI, meaning the 3-0-1 record Michigan holds against Ferris counts in their PWR tabulation. The FSU win over MSU also knocked them out of “TUC” status as their RPI dropped below .500 (.4972). A Michigan win on Saturday night will further lower MSU’s RPI- but a loss to the Spartans would be more damaging. If MSU climbs back up as a TUC, the 3-1 advantage Michigan would hold (pending a victory Saturday) would also be included in the Wolverine’s PWR tabulation. A loss to the Spartans would even their head to head record at 2-2, only one of the factors for figuring out if a team wins a comparison against another team. My guess is that Michigan would still win the comparison versus MSU, but would suffer in other factors and lower their PWR ranking.

So far this season Michigan has played 18 games against teams with “TUC” status versus 9 games
against teams that are non “TUC” status. It appears that games against Miami, OSU, WMU and
NMU should all be “TUC” games since these teams currently sit above the cliff. That could change
(all four teams are just above the threshold) by the time Michigan plays them.

Ferris’ victory on Thursday also changed the projected NCAA playoff field- moving Miami up into the field and dropping WMU out. It is only conjecture as to where Michigan would be placed, but as the top 2nd seed in the field, I would guess the St. Louis (West) regional right now. That regional may look like this:

#4 Denver vs. #13 Union / #5 Michigan versus #11 Merrimack

Of course, by Friday night this data will probably change with the results of the games- the PWR is that dynamic right now. WMU is just outside the field, sitting at #16- the spot reserved for the AHA conference champion. I’ll continue to study the data and let our readers know.

The CCHA has just announced an 11 team playoff format for the 2011 CCHA Championship. The top five teams will receive first round byes. The bottom six teams will face off in a best of three series. Seed #6 vs. #11, #7 vs. #10, and #8 vs. #9.

Winners will advance to the quarterfinal round and will be reseeded to the #1 seed faces the lowest advancing seed, #2 the second lowest seed, etc… These games will also be best of three and take place on campus sites.

The four winners will advance to the CCHA Championship at Joe Louis Arena with the highest advancing seed facing the lowest seed and the two middle seeds playing each other. Winners advance to the title game while the losers face off in the third place contest.

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Written by GBMWolverine Staff — YostMeister

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